Author: Ryan Moralejo

Clash of the Titans: Game of the Week Preview 2/8 

Game of the Week Preview 2/8

We’ve got a battle of big guns to open the final (and biggest) weekend of NESCAC basketball this season, as the Hamilton Continentals look to knock off the high-flying Middlebury Panthers. With so much chaos surrounding the top five seeds, this game will be sure to provide some clarity into the situation. Middlebury currently occupies the number one spot in the standings due to their head-to-head win against Williams combined with have one more win than both Amherst and Hamilton (with one more game being played). The Continentals are in fourth, but a win on Friday would potentially vault them into the top two with games against Williams and Amherst remaining on the schedule. If you like offense, this is the game for you: both teams are top two in PPG and top four in FG% (I said this last week and Colby put up a dud in the second half, but second time’s the charm or something like that); at the same time, both teams rank top three in terms of defensive PPG and defensive 3PFG%, so something has to give here. With so much on the line for both teams, I expect the stars to come out and shine on the hardwood Friday night, and the result of this game will certainly be a fantastic segway into Saturday’s slate of conference games.

Jack Farrell ‘21 will look to lead the Panthers to their second NESCAC regular season championship in three years

Overview

Middlebury looked a bit shaky for the better part of the first 25 minutes of Saturday’s game against Colby, but the defense stymied Colby’s offensive weapons in the last 15 minutes and Jack Farrell ‘21 and Matt Fogler ‘20 hit some big shots as the Panthers eventually pulled away to secure a 81-68 victory. The defensive intensity the Panthers have recently displayed is quite an impressive turnaround from earlier this season, as they’ve allowed just under 56 PPG in their last four NESCAC matchups.  Middlebury was able to hold Bowdoin’s David Reynolds ‘20 to a season-low seven points on 3-14 shooting, and then limited Colby’s Sam Jefferson ‘20 to 16 points on 2-11 shooting from beyond the arc; the ability to contain the opposing team’s star player will be key on Friday as Hamilton not only boasts the best offensive unit in the ‘CAC, but arguably the front-runner for NESCAC POY in guard Kena Gilmour ‘20. The recent emergence of big man Eric McCord ‘19 only complicates matters for Hamilton’s defense, as they now have to worry about an inside presence on top of the Panther’s plethora of shooters. Farrell, Fogler, and Max Bosco ‘21, are all prolific scorers, and Midd gets plenty of help on the bench from guys like Griffin Kornaker ‘21 (8.4 PPG, 3.1 AST/G in conference play). This unit is on a roll on both sides of the floor and the Panthers will be ready come Friday to protect home court.

The Continentals needed a big bounce-back weekend after flopping against Colby two Saturdays ago, and they did so with wins against Bates and Tufts. Against the Bobcats, Hamilton was led by (you guessed it) Kena Gilmour with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists. Peter Hoffmann ‘19 played exceptionally well, chipping in with 22 points and 10 rebounds, and Michael Grassey ‘19 capped The Big 3’s performance with 17 points and 11 rebounds of his own. The Continentals knocked down 16 triples and held Bates to just 25.9% from downtown combined with forcing 18 turnovers. The Tufts game was a slightly different story, as Hamilton was down 1 with 53 seconds left before Grassey’s layup gave the Continentals the lead with 32 seconds to play. Hamilton held off the upset-minded Jumbos despite Gilmour’s uncharacteristic poor performance (4 points, 2-10 shooting), as Hoffmann scored 22 and the bench players combined for a rather impressive 31 points. Hamilton’s defense has been rather pedestrian as of late, allowing over 81 PPG. Against Middlebury’s high-scoring unit, the Continentals will need to clamp down and run Midd’s shooters off the three point line, because the last thing they want to do is get in a shootout with the league’s best 3-point shooting teams.

Middlebury X – Factor

Eric McCord ‘19

Guys like Farrell, Bosco, and Folger are the sexy choices, but I’m opting for the big bruiser down low. On a team full of snipers, McCord is that big body center who crashes the boards and does the dirty work inside. He’s averaging a career-high 9.2 PPG to go along with 10.2 REB/G and was a monumental part of the Panthers’ last two conference wins. Against Bowdoin, McCord registered his 8th double-double of the season, chipping in 10 points to go along with 11 rebounds. The following day, the senior scored a team-high 19 points and went 8-10 from the field in Middlebury’s road win against upset-minded Colby. McCord will have his hands full dealing with Hamilton big man Andrew Knoll ‘19, but if he can replicate his performances from this past weekend, the Panthers will have a good chance to knock off Hamilton.

Hamilton X – Factor

Peter Hoffmann ‘19

Hoffmann has had a relatively disappointing senior campaign as he’s averaging a career low 12.1 PPG. His play was subpar in Hamilton’s two conference losses, as Hoffmann finished with a mere 8 points in each of the Continentals’ defeats to Wesleyan and Colby; however, the 6’6’’ G/F has shown flashes of brilliance during his past two games against Bates and Tufts, scoring a combined 43 points and grabbing 15 rebounds. His 22 point performance at Tufts was instrumental in the Continentals’ victory and kept them in the hunt for the #1 overall seed come postseason tournament time. I cannot underestimate the need for a guy like Hoffmann to have a large impact against the Panthers, and I think he’ll continue his recent success into this matchup of titans.

Final Thoughts

I’ve gone back and forth with my decision like a college football recruit before signing day (only I’m not being offered thousands of dollars of cash to make the choice) and I can’t say I’m 100% committed to one side. I will say that I don’t think home court matters a whole bunch in this league; we’ve seen plenty of teams upset at home this season, including Williams at the hands of Middlebury, Colby beating both Hamilton and Amherst, Bowdoin beating Williams, Trinity beating Wesleyan, etc. Both teams possess dynamic offenses and solid defenses capable of getting stops at the right moments. Despite Hamilton’s 19-2 record, they haven’t played a NESCAC team situated in current the top 5 with the exception of Wesleyan, whereas Middlebury has the advantage of already playing Williams on top of Wesleyan. Hamilton’s loss to Colby, coupled with close calls against Trinity and Tufts, is an indicator that this team isn’t quite as dominant as I thought they would be at the start of this season. Or maybe, it’s just a case of a team playing down to its competition. Despite all of this, I’m going to side with the Continentals and Kena Gilmour. I believe Gilmour, who should be hungry to cement his status as the league’s best player after laying an egg against Tufts, will take over this game. I expect help from the likes of Grassey, Hoffmann, and McCord, but Gilmour will be the catalyst that wills the Continentals to a massive road win and knocks Middlebury off the throne.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 78 – Middlebury 74

Get Ready for a Barnburner: Game of the Week Preview 2/1

Game of the Week Preview 2/1

Two of the hottest teams in the NESCAC will face off Saturday, as the Middlebury Panthers will take on the Colby Mules at Wadsworth Gymnasium. The Panthers are on a three-game winning streak, having convincingly knocked off mighty Williams before annihilating the Bantams this past Saturday. The Mules are enjoying a three-game winning streak of their own, and their last two road upsets against Amherst and Hamilton have people talking that this team might be a giant-killer as we progress further into the season. Both teams rank in the top four teams in the NESCAC in 3PFG% and PPG, so there’s sure to be some fireworks on display. A Panther win and they keep pace with Wesleyan and Amherst in the conference standings, while still in reach of WIlliams. Conversely, another Colby upset and the Mules will have essentially clinched a top eight seed for the postseason tournament. Needless to say, there’s a lot of the line for both teams in what should be a dog-fight that could come down to the wire.

Overview

The Panthers are an offensive juggernaut, and opposing defenses are still having trouble figuring out the trio of Jack Farrell, Matt Folger, and Max Bosco. All three rank in the top 12 in the NESCAC in PPG and command an offense than leads the NESCAC in scoring at 84.7 PPG; in fact, no other NESCAC team is averaging 80 PPG in conference play. The Panthers’ ball movement is exceptional (2nd in AST/G), they rebound at a high rate (3rd in offensive REB/G, 4th in defensive REB/G) and they average under 10 turnovers per contest. Simply put, this team does not beat itself, and Colby’s defense will have its hands full trying to disrupt Middlebury’s well-oiled machine of an offense. On the defensive end, the Panthers seem average, but recent performances against Williams and Trinity suggest this team might have turned the corner. Against the Ephs, Middlebury held their potent shooters to just 36.2% from the field and an eye-opening 10% from beyond the arc. They followed up that performance with annihilation of Trinity, where the Panthers allowed 38 points. Yes, you read that right – 38 points in a college basketball game. I realize Trinity has one of the worst offensive teams in the ‘CAC, but allowing a mere 38 points (22.4% from the field) against a conference opponent is extremely impressive. If they continue this type of defensive intensity come Saturday, the Panthers will walk out of Wadsworth Gymnasium with a big-time win.

Noah Tyson ’22 has made an immediate impact as a first-year

The Mules like to bombard their opponents from deep (an absurd 677 attempts from three on the season) and are the only NESCAC team to have attempted over 200 three pointers thus far in conference game – the next closest being Middlebury at 148 attempts. They shoot close to 41% as a team from downtown, and what’s more impressive is the Mules do not have a single senior who plays significant minutes. Leading the way is Sam Jefferson ‘20 (18.6 PPG, 44.1% 3PFG), Matt Hanna ‘21 (14.3 PPG, 41.7% 3PFG), and a slew of shooters all capable of knocking down the deep ball. Colby opts for a starting lineup featuring five guards instead of inserting a true center; this might be the main reason why they have a negative rebounding margin, but the strategy seems to have paid off against the likes of Amherst and Hamilton. On defense, the Mules are less impressive, ranking in the bottom half of points allowed/game and defensive 3PFG%. Similarly to Middlebury, however, Colby played much better on defense against Amherst and Hamilton. The Mammoths shot just 11.8% from deep, and the Continentals weren’t much better at 25% from three.

Middlebury X – Factor

Max Bosco ‘21

Bosco has been an integral part of Middlebury’s success over the course of the season, leading the Panthers in 3PFG%. In the past three weeks, the sophomore has elevated his game to another level; in a non-conference game against Widener, Bosco exploded for 27 points, and followed that up with a season-defining performance against Bates, where he scored 28 points and dished out five assists. After another solid performance in Middlebury’s close loss to Tufts, Bosco was inserted into the starting five in favor of Griffin Kornaker ‘21; he hasn’t looked back, and has Middlebury looking like a dangerous team come postseason time.  Middlebury knows it will get offensive production from the likes of Jack Farrell and Matt Folger, but Bosco needs to extend his hot shooting streak if the Panthers want to escape Waterville with a win.

Colby X – Factor

Sam Jefferson ‘20

Jefferson is tied for 4th in the NESCAC in PPG, and the junior only needs an inch of space to make defenders pay. He’s averaging an absurd 27.3 PPG over his last three contests, and single-handedly willed his squad to back-to-back road upsets against Amherst and Hamilton. He shot 50% from deep against the two NESCAC teams and went 17/20 from the charity stripe, showing Jefferson’s capability to burn you from long range or take it to the hole and get to the line. The outcome of the game will most likely hinge on Jefferson’s performance; the Mules are 9-1 when Jefferson scores 20+ points, including 3-0 in conference play. In their conference losses against Bates, Bowdoin and Trinity, he averaged a mere 12.3 points and shot 36.1% from the field. The Mules will definitely need some help to accompany Jefferson on Saturday, but he has to have another Amherst/Hamilton-esque performance if the Mules want to keep the winning streak alive.

Final Thoughts

I’m not a betting man, but I would expect a ton of points in Saturday’s game. Despite the recent defensive resurgence for both squads, the offenses should have plenty of space to knock down shots. Colby’s wins against Amherst and Hamilton are undoubtedly impressive, and they should have every reason to think they can do it again, this time in front of their home fans. Still, I have to side with the team with the better overall talent. The Panthers have the more refined set of shooters and have proven they can win in a multitude of ways; Colby is too reliant on the three ball and I think Middlebury will be well-prepared to guard Jefferson and Colby’s other offensive weapons. In what should be an exhilarating game, give me the Panthers to snag a hard-fought road win and stay in contention for a top seed in the NESCAC posteason tournament.

Writer’s Pick: Middlebury 88 – Colby 80

Changing of the Guard: Power Rankings 1/24

Power Rankings 1/24

As the title of this week’s Power Rankings suggests, Williams has been ousted from the top spot, something they’ve held for quite some time. If I’m being completely honest, any of the top four teams in this week’s edition of the power rankings has a legitimate case to be ranked number one, and that’s what makes this league so exciting. The chaos from top to bottom surrounding the league’s potential seeding makes every game a must-watch, and with some incredibly important conference games set to take place this weekend, hopefully we’ll get a more clear picture of where teams stand. Or, maybe it’ll be even more chaotic. There’s only one way to find out.

(2) 1. #25 Wesleyan (14-4, 4-1)

Last Week: W 78-70 @ Conn College

This Week: @ Bates, @ Tufts

After going back-and-forth, I’ve decided to stick with the hot hand that is Wesleyan. Since falling to Williams in their conference opener, the Cardinals have rattled off six consecutive wins. Their 4-1 mark in conference play is very impressive and because their conference schedule was front-loaded with teams such as Williams, Hamilton and Middlebury, the Cardinals have one of the league’s easiest remaining schedules. Wesleyan has cemented themselves as a force to be reckoned with; the question that remains, however, is can they beat the teams they’re supposed to beat? The first “test” came Saturday in New London, where the Cardinals staved off a frantic Camels comeback to secure a 78-70 victory. Everything was fine and dandy in the first half as Wesleyan jumped out to a 47-29 lead; the second half was a completely different story, as the Camels went on a 12-0 run to open things up and eventually cut the lead to five with a minute remaining before Wesleyan ended their hopes with some clutch free throw shooting. Austin Hutcherson ‘21 struggled from the field, but Jordan Bonner ‘19 carried the Cardinals with 24 points to go along with 10 rebounds, his 9th double-double of the year. Up next for the Cardinals is a feisty Bates squad before heading down to Medford to take on the Jumbos.

(4) 2. #19 Amherst (14-2, 2-1)

Last Week: postponed @ Hamilton

This Week: vs. Colby, vs. Bowdoin

*From the Nothing But NESCAC Community, our thoughts and prayers go out to Coach Hixon and his family regarding the passing of his mother this past week.

Amherst has quietly been lurking in the background amongst the perennial conference front-runners, but made their presence known with a marquee victory over bitter rival Williams. The Mammoths clawed their way back from an eleven point deficit in the second half, taking the lead with three minutes remaining on a Fru Che ‘21 three pointer. Che ended up scoring the game-winning shot with eight seconds to play to cap an emotional week for the Mammoths, who were without Coach Hixon for the first time in nearly 42 years. Amherst’s defense has been superb in conference play (59 ppg) and held Williams to just 35.8% from the field. This is a deep squad that consists of 11 players averaging 10 min/game or more, and their only conference loss was on the road at Wesleyan on a shot with seconds left. A convincing non-conference victory over a ranked Eastern Connecticut squad will have the team’s confidence sky high as they look to continue their winning ways with home games against Colby and Bowdoin this upcoming weekend.

(1) 3. #8 Williams (16-2, 4-1)

What’s wrong with Williams’ big 3? The trio will need to fix their offensive woes

Last Week: L 80-66 vs. Middlebury

This Week: vs. Trinity

The warning signs were there in their win against Bates, but many people shrugged off the Ephs’ sluggish performance. Their offensive woes continued in their non-conference loss to rival Amherst, but even more painful was a second consecutive loss at home to Middlebury. Some might say dropping Williams to #3 might be harsh, but their coaching staff and players will be the first to tell you they expect better execution than what’s been presented the past few games. This is a team that was averaging well over 85 ppg, but in their last three games against NESCAC opponents has mustered up 75, 62, and 66 points. In their loss to Middlebury, Williams shot an abysmal 2-20 from beyond the arc; Bobby Casey ‘19 was just 1-7 from three, and Kyle Scadlock ‘19 (13.8 ppg) was a non-factor, scoring three points. James Heskett, a normally deadly three point shooter, was a combined 3-24 from downtown in their most recent games against Bates, Amherst and Middlebury. Williams is still talented enough to win if one of the three has an off night, but they need more consistent production from their trio of stars in order to right the ship and fix their offensive woes. Next on tap are the Bantams, who’s defensive statistics are in the top half of all NESCAC teams.

(3) 4. #6 Hamilton (15-1, 2-1)

Last Week: postponed vs. Amherst

This Week: vs. Bowdoin, vs. Colby

Hamilton was supposed to play Amherst on Saturday, but extreme weather conditions postponed the game to a later date. With no non-conference games during the week, Hamilton will have gone ten days without a game when they welcome Bowdoin to campus on Friday. Kena Gilmour ‘20 continues to dazzle for the Continentals, leading the ‘CAC with 20.4 ppg. Like the three teams ranked ahead of them, Hamilton still controls their own destiny in regards to seizing the regular season championship. However, their final two games are absolutely brutal, with road trips to Middlebury and Williams back-to-back and the rescheduled home meeting with Amherst penciled in somewhere near the back portion of the schedule. But before we look too far ahead, Gilmour and co. must take care of business against Bowdoin and Colby – two teams that have no trouble shooting the rock – in order to keep pace with the rest of the league.

(5) 5. Middlebury (14-5, 3-2)

Last Week: W 80-66 @ Williams

This Week: vs. Trinity

I guess the Panthers read my stock report last week, because their defense came to play this past weekend against Williams. Middlebury did everything right: they only turned the ball over eight times (and forced thirteen turnovers of their own), shot 46% from the field while holding the Ephs to just 36.2% (including 10% from three) and converted 86.7% of their free throw attempts. Jack Farrell ‘21, Max Bosco ‘21 and Matt Folger ‘20 continued to set the nets ablaze, accounting for 59 points. Their next stretch of games is an opportunity for the Panthers to separate themselves from the likes of Bowdoin, Trinity, Bates, etc. and secure (at worst) the 5th seed for the conference championship. Middlebury can build off their phenomenal defensive performance when they face Trinity on Sunday, the worst offensive team in the NESCAC.

(6) 6. Trinity (13-5, 2-2)

Last Week: Non-conference

This Week: @ Williams, @ Middlebury

The Bantams were off from NESCAC play this past weekend, where they stomped St. Joseph’s (L.I.) by a score of 92-38. Connor Merinder ‘19 led the way with 21 points and shot 5-6 from beyond the arc, and Trinity shot a season-high 61.8% from the field. The fun will be short-lived, however, because Coach Cosgrove and his squad have two conference games on the road this week that will really test their defensive prowess. First up is a Friday matchup with Williams, a team that is struggling on the offensive end but given their plethora of talent, can erupt at any moment. After a day off, the Bantams will have another go against a top five team, this time against Middlebury. It’s a matchup of contrasting styles, as Middlebury likes to bomb away from deep and can score at will, while the Bantams prefer to grind down their opponents on the defensive end. This game in particular is crucial for the Bantams in order to prove they belong in the discussion for a top six seed come tourney time.

(8) 7. Bowdoin (11-5, 2-2)

Last Week: W 72-69 @ Colby

This Week: @ Hamilton, @ Amherst

The Polar Bears avenged their non-conference loss to Colby earlier in the year with a 72-69 victory up in Waterville. David Reynolds ‘20 was once again the go-to-guy for Bowdoin, as the junior finished with 24 points and 8 rebounds. Jack Simonds ‘19 also had a nice game, tallying 18 points, and big man Hugh O’Neil ‘19 hit the go-ahead shot with 38 seconds remaining. It was a big win for the Polar Bears, who improved to .500 in conference play and into a tie with Trinity and half a game behind Middlebury in the conference standings. Road trips with Hamilton and Amherst certainly doesn’t bode well on paper, but if the duo of Reynolds and Simonds continues to put up lofty scoring numbers, they just might have a chance to spring an upset or two away from home.

(10) 8. Bates (5-12, 2-3)

Kody Greenhalgh ‘20 puts his athleticism on full display, driving to the hole for a layup

Last Week: W 76-65 vs. Tufts

This Week: vs. Wesleyan, vs. Conn

After two close contests against Williams and Midd, the Bobcats finally picked up a conference win on their own floor against the Jumbos by a score of 76-65. Nick Lynch ‘19 scored 20 of his 22 points in the first half and juniors Jeff Spellman ‘20 (16 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists) and Kody Greenhalgh ‘20 (14 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals) were extremely active on both sides of the court.  The return of Tom Coyne ‘20 has been monumental for the Bobcats, and the sniper from long range turned in another impressive performance with 18 off the bench. The defense has played significantly better since allowing 100 to Middlebury, forcing 17 turnovers against Tufts and holding them to just 34.8% from the field. This team is peaking at the right time, and welcomes both the best team in the conference and the worst team to Alumni Gym this weekend. Saturday’s tilt with Conn is an absolute must win if the Bobcats want to secure a spot in the conference tournament, but they most certainly have a chance to knock off the Cardinals. It’s going to be an extremely exciting weekend for Bobcat fans.

(7) 9. Tufts (8-10, 2-3)

Last Week: L 76-65 @ Bates

This Week: vs. Conn, vs. Wesleyan

If the Jumbos defeated Bates, they more than likely would have solidified a place in the conference tournament barring a collapse down the stretch. Instead, they’re on the outside looking in. Luke Rogers ‘21 (18 points, 10 rebounds) was the only bright spot for a team that struggled to shoot the ball on Saturday, and the big man will be a thorn for opposing teams in the years to come. The starting five combined to shoot a paltry 3-18 from three, and as a team the Jumbos struggled mightily from the charity stripe (52.6%). They have the inverse schedule of Bates this weekend, with Conn first up to visit Medford on Friday followed by Wesleyan. Similar to the Bobcats, the Jumbos cannot afford to trip up against a Conn squad that did show some fight against Wesleyan, as a loss would all but doom their hopes of making the postseason dance.

(9) 10. Colby (13-5, 1-3)

Last Week: L 72-69 vs. Bowdoin

This Week: @ Amherst, @ Hamilton

The game between Bowdoin and Colby presented huge ramifications regarding the playoff picture, and the loss pushes the Mules towards the bottom of the league’s standings. Four of Colby’s starters (led by Sam Jefferson ‘20) finished with double digits in the scoring department, but they got very little production from their bench. The shiny overall record Colby experienced to the 2018-2019 season was inflated by a weak non-conference schedule, and it’s beginning to show. With just one win in conference play to date and remaining games against all of the league’s top five teams (starting with road games against Amherst and Hamilton this weekend), all of this doesn’t bode well for Colby’s playoff chances.

(11) 11. Conn College (6-11, 0-5)

David Labossiere has been one of the few bright spots for the Camels this season

Last Week: L 78-70 vs. Wesleyan

This Week: @ Tufts, @ Bates

The Camels are once again struggling in conference play, but I’ll give them credit for fighting back against Wesleyan this past weekend. The Cardinals came out and punched Conn in the mouth, taking an 18 point lead into the half. David Labossiere ‘19 and Dan Draffan ‘21 willed their team back in the second half, and the two leading scorers finally received some additional help on the offensive end from Phil Leotsakos ‘19, who finished with a career-high 16 points. Although this performance wasn’t enough to produce a win, the Camels should feel more confident about their chances against Tufts and Bates, two teams who aren’t as strong as Wesleyan. Road games in the ‘CAC are tough to win, and Conn hasn’t won a league road game since the 2016-2017 season; but if the Camels replicate their performance against Wesleyan (most importantly having a third solid scoring option), then they might just shock the NESCAC with a win this weekend.

Still No Clarity: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 1/15

Freshman Andrew Kelley’s (‘22) game winner against Colby boosted Trinity’s chances of securing a playoff berth.

Stock Up

Austin Hutcherson’s ‘21 MVP Campaign

Hutcherson displayed flashes of his full potential during an impressive freshman season, but I don’t think many people would have pegged the 6’6’’ guard to be at the forefront of the MVP conversation. He’s averaging 24.0 ppg in conference play thus far, sporting a ridiculous 46.7% clip from beyond the arc. His offensive game doesn’t strictly revolve around the three ball, however, as he averages more than three trips to the free throw line a game and converts 88% of his freebees. Hutcherson single-handedly willed Wesleyan to huge conference victories against Middlebury and Hamilton, exploding for a combined 78 points; and although the sophomore struggled against Amherst’s stifling defense, he still managed to sink the game-winning shot with 3 seconds left. He’s put the Cardinals in prime position to snag a top seed come conference tourney time, and it’s hard to ignore the multitude of offensive skills Hutcherson brings to the hardwood day in and out. All aboard the Austin Hutcherson hype train.

Late Game Heroics

What a weekend in the ‘CAC. NESCAC fans were blessed with not one, not two, but three game-winning shots during Saturday and Sunday’s slate of games. The first one concerned Wesleyan and Amherst, where Austin Hutcherson sank a shot off the glass with three seconds remaining to give the Cardinals a 62-60 win over the Mammoths and cement their place as the number two team in league play. Then, in what most certainly is one of the bigger upsets we’ve encountered this season, Brennan Morris (‘21) of Tufts drilled a baseline jumper with seven seconds to play, shocking the Middlebury Panthers en route to an 86-84 victory. Last, but certainly not least, Trinity’s Anthony Kelley (‘22) took an inbounds pass with less than four seconds left and converted a layup as the buzzer sounded, finishing off Colby 62-60. It was an exhilarating week of basketball in one of the country’s premier D3 conferences, and here’s to hoping the madness continues.

Stock Down

Hamilton’s FT% on the Road

When I wrote the team preview for Hamilton, I alluded to their struggles from the free throw line in the 2017-2018 season and how that number would have to improve if the Continentals wanted to challenge for the NESCAC Championship (and beyond). Well, it’s safe to say they must’ve not read the preview, because the numbers are still bad. In particular, the Continentals are sporting an abysmal 55% clip from the charity stripe when playing on the road. Up until this weekend, Hamilton had the talent and scoring capabilities to overcome their poor numbers at the line, but it finally caught up to them this weekend at Wesleyan. The Continentals converted just 53.8% of their free throws (7/13), while the Cardinals sunk 22 of their 23 free throws. In a game where neither team shot particularly well, it was free throws that ultimately decided the outcome. Considering Hamilton has two huge road games remaining against Middlebury and Williams, they might want to consider setting some practice time aside for free throw shooting.

Middlebury’s Defense

Thomas Coyne ‘20 nails one of fifteen threes for the Bobcats against a porous Middlebury D.

The Panthers had rather pedestrian numbers on defense throughout the non-conference slate, but they’re giving up an additional 10 ppg in conference play. Allowing 93 points to Bates (who averages less than 75 ppg) and 86 to Tufts is not the recipe to success. Through four conference games, the Panthers are allowing opposing teams to shoot 49.1% from the field, including 40.9% from downtown. They’re not forcing a ton of turnovers, and based on their assists allowed/game, opposing NESCAC teams are moving the ball with ease against Midd’s D. They have such an explosive offense that can keep them in any contest, but the defensive side of the ball needs more attention if the Panthers want to right the ship.

Revenge Tour: Hamilton Continentals’ Men’s Basketball Season Preview

2017-2018 Record: 24-5 (7-3); lost to Williams in NESCAC Semifinals, lost in NCAA Sweet 16

2018-2019 Projected Record: 28-4 (8-2), Win NESCAC Championship, Lose in NCAA Final Four

Key Losses: None

Continentals Starting Lineup:

G  Tim Doyle ‘19 (10.0 PPG, 3.3 AST/G, 36.5% 3PFG)

Doyle’s game isn’t very flashy, but the 6’5’’ guard is an integral part of this Hamilton squad. A pesky defender with a knack for causing turnovers, Doyle tallied a career-high six steals against Amherst last season, and averaged more than steal a game in the 2017-2018 season. While his offensive numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page, the Nuskayuna native certainly has the capability to put up points. Doyle recorded at least fifteen points in eight games, including a season-high 26 against Utica. He’s off to a great start in 2018-2019, shooting 57.8% from the field and dishing out a team-best four assists/game.

G  Kena Gilmour ‘20: (18.5 PPG, 7.2 REB/G, 1.8 STL/G, 47.0% FG)

Gilmour’s transition from freshman to sophomore included a spot in the starting five, and boy did he deliver. The former NESCAC Rookie of the Year finished second in the NESCAC in scoring and led the league in steals, garnering All-NESCAC First Team honors and a spot on the All-Northeast Region Second Team. He dropped 40 points in Hamilton’s Sweet Sixteen defeat to Springfield, and the junior looks ready to lead his squad to their first ever NESCAC Championship. His 2018-2019 MVP campaign is off to a blazing start, averaging 19.5 PPG on 51.2% shooting to go along with 6.9 REB/G and 1.3 STL/G. The one knock on his game thus far, however, has got to be the poor 3PFG%; Gilmour is just 7-25 from beyond the arc, and he’ll need to find a rhythm from downtown before the conference slate begins.

G/F  Michael Grassey ‘19: (12.8 PPG, 7.1 REB/G, 38% 3PFG)

Grassey is a pure shooter and only needs the slightest bit of separation to get off a shot. His eighteen threes made were good for 10th in the ‘CAC, and connected on 40% of them in conference play. He essentially finished tied with Gilmour as leading team rebounders (despite   the shortest members of Hamilton’s starting five) and recorded four double-doubles. Through the first eight games of this young season, Grassey has upped his scoring average to 15.9 PPG, including a 26 point showing against Transylvania in late November. One thing’s for sure about Grassey: this kid hasn’t forgotten how to shoot. The senior from Winchester is torching opponents from downtown at an astounding 53.2% clip. A word of advice to NESCAC coaches: don’t play zone against this kid.

G/F  Peter Hoffmann ‘19: (13.9 PPG, 5.0 REB/G, 1.4 STL/G, 56.1% FG)

Hoffmann was the team’s second-leading scorer last year and ranked fifth in the NESCAC in field goal percentage (56.1%). His numbers earned him a Second-Team All NESCAC selection, and captains this year’s squad with fellow teammate Michael Grassey. The 6’6’’ senior does most of his damage from inside the arc, and he should probably abandon the three ball all together (8-38 last season, 3-13 this season). Although his scoring has dipped since his sophomore season, the senior can still shoot the rock; Hoffmann tallied 18 points in Hamilton’s season-opening win against Centenary University, and poured in 16 a few games later against Carnegie Mellon. He might not be the player opposing defenses are entirely focused on, but lose sight of him and Hoffmann can and will make you pay.

F  Andrew Groll ‘19: (7.4 PPG, 6.1 REB/G)

Groll is another one of those prototypical centers who does the dirty work on both ends of the floor. A starter his freshman and sophomore seasons, Groll came off the bench in 2017-2018, but regained his starting role for his senior year. Despite averaging 7.4 PPG, Groll was very effective from the field, shooting an even 50%. He’s also a threat on the offensive glass, placing 8th in the conference in total offensive rebounds. This season, the numbers are essentially identical.I know the Continentals are a deep squad with talented scorers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Groll saw some more touches; not only would it establish a low post presence, but he could also attract an additional defenders, opening up the court to allow for a cutting teammate or leave the perimeter exposed.

Breakout Player:

G  Mark Lutz: (11.6 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 0.6 TO/G)

Hamilton has a wide assortment of guards to choose from, so it’s hard for Coach Stockwell to allocate minutes to all his players. Lutz has improved his offensive game to earn those minutes. Just like many of his teammates, Lutz likes the make it rain from three; he’s made at least one three pointer in seven of Hamilton’s eight games, and averages 44.8% from beyond the arc. His most recent performance against SUNY Polytechnic was his best yet, where he scored 13 points and went 3-4 from three. He’s currently averaging close to 8 PPG while shooting 44.8% from long range. Lutz also does a great job at taking care of the ball, sporting a .5 TO/G average. If Hamilton ever finds itself in an offensive spunk, Lutz will most likely be the first guy off the bench to spark a run.

Everything Else:

Last season left a bitter taste in Coach Stockwell’s mouth as the Continentals lost a thrilling NESCAC Semifinal to Williams. Couple that with squandering a three point lead with four seconds to play in the Sweet Sixteen (Hamilton missed two free throws, allowing Springfield to launch a prayer three and send the game to overtime), and you’ve got a team that is angry and motivated to prove they are one of the best teams in the land. Currently ranked #3 in the country, there’s no doubt this Hamilton team is one of the favorites to not only grab its first NESCAC Championship, but also a National Championship; and how could you not love the potential this team possesses? They led the NESCAC in scoring this past season and returned four of their five starters. The one starter they did lose (no offense to alum Joe Pucci ‘18) averaged less than 6.0 PPG and was more of a floor general than anything. This team is an offensive juggernaut, currently averaging 92.1 PPG on 50.9% shooting. They seem to play a more small-ball approach, as their traditional center (Andrew Groll) only averages around 20 MPG. Instead, this team is full of tall, athletic guards that love to shoot.

Defensively, the Continentals were near the bottom of the conference in terms of points  allowed (74.2 PPG), but did lead the NESCAC in turnovers forced by a sizeable margin. So far to date, the averages are trending in the right direction; Hamilton ranks top five in the NESCAC in teams in terms of points allowed (68.8 PPG), turnovers forced (lead the league with 17.3 TO/G) and rebounding (35.6 REB/G). Another major problem the Continentals had last season on the defensive end was fouling; they committed 19.1 PF/G, a number that only Colby and Trinity were able to surpass. Eight games in, and the number is worse, up to 20.3 PF/G (Apparently “keep your hands to yourself” was not preached at the team meeting prior to the season’s beginning). All jokes aside, Hamilton is trending in the right direction on the defensive side of the ball, but conference play will be the telling point as an indication to whether or not the Continentals have turned the page.

#YGTMYFT

I set aside this special acronym for specifically Hamilton. Games are won and lost at the free throw line (just ask Hamilton last season regarding Springfield). I know I’m reopening a wound that hasn’t fully quite healed, but the signs were there: the Continentals shot just 71.4% from the line in 2017-2018, and while that’s good enough for third in the NESCAC, it’s still not a phenomenal average. This season, they’re shooting…..61% from the charity stripe, second worst in the ‘CAC.  Now before Continental faithful freak out, I expect this percentage to increase mainly due to the starting five’s lack of minutes thus far. Coach Stockwell has rotated a majority of his bench players into games for significant periods of time trying to figure out who he can count on for when the conference games come calling. Many of the poor percentages belong to said bench players, with the one exception being Peter Hoffmann (29.6% FT). Nonetheless, I have to say it, because conference games will be tight scoring and there will be times where the Continentals will have to ice the game at the line: Hamilton, YOU’VE GOT TO MAKE YOUR FREE THROWS!!!

After my quick free throw rant, I will say this Hamilton team can be really special. The NESCAC is one of the premier basketball conferences in D3, and there’s a strong possibility the Continentals will come out as the cream of the crop. In fact, I’m going as far as declaring Hamilton as the favorite to secure their first ever NESCAC Championship, and if they clean up the personal fouls on defense/improve their free throw shooting, this team can win a National Championship. This is a squad full of veteran players who got a taste of what they can accomplish during last season’s postseason run, and is one of the best and most consistent offensive team in the country. I expect big things from this Hamilton team, so don’t make me look bad.

Bowdoin Polar Bears 2019 Basketball Season Preview

Chomping At The Bit: Bowdoin Polar Bears’ Men’s Basketball Season Preview

Jack Simonds has had a great career and it will be fun to see how it finishes.

Bowdoin 2017- 2018 Record: 15-9 (4-6), lost to Amherst in NESCAC Quarterfinals

Projected 2018-2019 Record: 13-11 (5-5)

Key Losses:

G  Liam Farley ‘18 (10.1 PPG, 44.1% 3PFG)

Polar Bears Starting Lineup:

G  Zavier Rucker ‘21 (7.7 PPG, 3.8 REB/G, 3.4 AST/G, 1.1 STL/G)

Zavier Rucker ’21

Rucker had an immediate impact for the Polar Bears, starting 22 of Bowdoin’s 23 games as a true freshman. The first thing I noticed when glossing over Rucker’s stats was how well he shot with such few attempts; despite averaging a meager 4.7 shots per game, Rucker posted a 57.4% clip from the field, including 41.7% from beyond the arc. I would imagine Coach Gilbride told Rucker he’d like to see his sophomore guard take on a more aggressive role in the offense, and through the first three games of the 2018-2019 season, he’s been absolutely superb. He’s averaging 19 PPG (a scorching 71% field goal percentage), to go along with a team-leading 6.0 AST/G. Rucker is also averaging more than four free throws a game, another indicator he’s attacking the rim frequently. One of the most improved players in the NESCAC so far, if Rucker continues to put up these kinds of numbers, the Polar Bears will be a dangerous opponent come league play.

F  Jack Simonds ‘19: (15.0 PPG, 5.4 REB/G, 3.0 AST/G)

Jack Simonds ’19

Simonds saw a slight decrease in offensive production after coming off fantastic freshman and sophomore seasons, but still finished as the Polar Bears’ second leading scorer and rebounder. The scoring numbers still aren’t quite up to par with years past (12.7 PPG), but the 6’6’’ senior has more than doubled his rebounding average from last season, securing more than 11 per game. While I don’t expect Simonds to continue averaging a double-double come season’s end, the emergence of a second rebounder is critical for the Polar Bears, who finished last season in the bottom half of the NESCAC in rebounding.

G/F  David Reynolds ‘20: (15.4 PPG, 4.7 REB/G, 1.7 AST/G)

David Reynolds ’20

Through the first thirteen games of the 2017-2018 season, Reynolds served as the Polar Bears’ sixth-man, sans one non-conference tilt with Westfield St. He tallied double digits in eleven of those games off the bench, at which point Coach Gilbride inserted him into the starting five. Reynolds finished the season just ahead of Simonds as the team’s leading scorer, earning a spot on the 2nd Team All-Conference list in the process. At 6’5’’ and weighing 202 lbs, Reynolds is a rangy, athletic guard/forward hybrid who can use his height advantage to bully smaller defenders and his speed to blow by bigger ones. He’s not afraid to bomb away from beyond the arc either, averaging over nine 3PT/G this season, connecting on 42.9% of them. He’s scored 26, 24, and 26 through his first three games this season, and the latter two were done with less than 25 minutes spent on the court. Needless to say, this man can shoot the rock, and must to continue to do so once the games really start to matter.

C Hugh O’Neil ‘19: (9.6 PPG, 8.8 REB/G, 56.9% FG)

Hugh O’Neil ’19

O’Neil is that energetic bruiser everyone likes to have on their team but hates to play against. The senior registered a team-leading six double-doubles last season, most notably a monster 22 point, 15 rebound performance against rival Colby. At 6’7’’, O’Neil certainly isn’t the tallest center in the league, but he is the main reason Bowdoin finished third in the ‘CAC in defensive rebounding. He’s currently averaging a double-double through the first three games of this young season (10.7 PPG, 10.0 REB/G), and it seems like he won’t have to worry about being the Polar Bears’ only source of rebounding, as Simonds seems to have accepted the challenge in assisting in that department.

G Jack Bors ‘19: 5.8 PPG, 82.4% FT

Jack Bors ’19

Last season, Bors started the first thirteen games before switching roles with David Reynolds. At the time, Bowdoin only had two starters averaging double digits, so Reynolds was added to the starting five to inject some life into the offense. Bors saw his minutes drop and with it, his production. This season, the senior is off to a rough start, averaging just 3.0 PPG and shooting an abysmal 16.7% from the field. Bors has the capability and the talent to turn it around quick, but the Polar Bears have other options off the bench as an alternative if he continues to struggle.

Breakout Player:

G  Sam Grad 21’ (4.8 PPG, 57.5% FG)

Sam Grad ’21

Grad got some burn as a freshman last season, and I think he can really blossom into a solid two-way guard for Bowdoin. He’s already posted double figures twice in three tries, but it’s at the defensive end where he could pose a problem for opposing guards. Standing at 6’7’’, Grad is extremely tall and lanky for his position, which will most certainly help clog passing lates and disrupt shots. Bowdoin allowed opposing NESCAC teams to shoot nearly 36% from three this past season, and if they want to make some noise in the ‘CAC, they’ll need production from their bench on both sides of the ball. Grad looks like he could be that guy.

Everything Else:

While three of the five starters on Bowdoin are seniors, all but one of their bench players are underclassmen. I’d consider Sam Grad as the cream of the crop from the bench; however, there are others who can most certainly make an immediate impact. One such player is Taiga Kagitomi ‘22. The freshman from Tokyo played for Japan in the 2017 FIBA Junior World Cup, which featured college stars like RJ Barrett (Duke), Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga) and Payton Pritchard (Oregon). Kagitomi might not have played a ton in the tourney, but gained valuable experience nonetheless. In fact, he’s already logged significant minutes for the Polar Bears, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his raw talent reflected in the stat column as the season progresses.

David Reynolds and company have a lot of senior leadership giving them a distinct advantage over many other NESCAC teams.

Defensively, Bowdoin was average at best in total rebounding, but did lead the league in offensive rebounds allowed; however, they were last in blocked shots, ahead of only Conn in turnovers forced, and allowed conference opponents to shoot around 42% from the field. The Polar Bears will need to do more than just crash the boards in order to compete with the upper echelon teams in the NESCAC, and it starts with creating more havoc on defense.

Offensively, the one glaring issue Bowdoin has had thus far is turnovers. Despite the 2-1 overall record, the Polar Bears rank near the bottom of te NESCAC with a -7 turnover differential per game, (18 TO/G and only forcing 11 TO/G). In their 90-65 win vs. Worcester St., Bowdoin committed 21 turnovers, and it’s not just the young players who are the main culprit; two of the starters (Bors and Reynolds) are committing 2.3 TO/G. They’ll definitely need to clean up the sloppy ball handling before conference play, or else they’ll struggle to replicate their top-eight finish.

On the positive side, the Polar Bears are setting the nets ablaze. They lead the ‘CAC in 3PT% and sit second in FG%. Will Bowdoin continue to average 96 PPG? Probably not. However, this torrid offensive pace is especially good to build confidence, especially for the underclassmen. Additionally, the more inexperienced teammates can become acclimated to the pace of college basketball. I predicted the Polar Bears to finish one game better in-conference than last season’s record, but would not be surprised if they finish as good as 6-4 or as bad as 3-7. It mainly depends on the offensive production; will David Reynolds continue to put up prolific scoring numbers? Can Rucker and company consistently provide offensive reinforcement when facing teams like Hamilton, Williams, Amherst, etc.? I think the Polar Bears have an upset or two in them, but I also see them cancelling out those performances by losing a game they’re favored in. Nonetheless, this isn’t a team that you’d want to play come tourney time (just ask last year’s Amherst squad).

 

All Chalk? Women’s Soccer Semifinal/Final Preview

All Chalk? Women’s Soccer Semifinal/Final Preview

Last weekend’s quarterfinal matchups saw each of the top four seeds secure berths to the next round, setting up what should be yet another entertaining weekend of postseason fútbol. I feel pretty confident predicting Williams, Middlebury, Amherst and Tufts will earn NCAA Tournament spots; the first three teams are ranked #2, #6 and #15 (respectively) in the Top 25 rankings, and Tufts checks in as the #5 team in the New England Regional Rankings. A NESCAC Championship certainly wouldn’t hurt to add to any of these team’s respective résumés come seeding time, and it’s fair to say all four of the contenders will fancy their chances to snag the coveted trophy. Without further ado, let’s give our final four a proper introduction.

Saturday, November 3rd (Semifinal #1 @ Williamstown, Mass): #1 Williams vs. #4 Tufts

How did they get here:

#1 Williams secured their fifth straight regular season title with a 1-0 win against Middlebury. There was no letdown with these ladies, as they dispatched #8 Colby in the quarterfinals relatively easily by a tune of 3-1. The Ephs outshot the Mules 27-4, as three different players found the net. Georgia Lord ‘21 got things started early in the 9th minute, and Sarah Scire ‘20 doubled Williams’ lead shortly afterwards. Nkem Iregbulem’s ‘20 long range missile all but sealed the deal, ensuring the Ephs would advance to the semifinals.

I’ll admit, I had the Jumbos pegged for a potential upset given how they finished the regular season. Back-to-back losses, including the most recent one to Bowdoin, indicated that maybe this Tufts team could be headed for an early exit. A matchup with Wesleyan proved to be the perfect remedy for a squad who needed to iron out their kinks, and fast. Sunday’s 2-0 win was essentially a carbon copy of their regular season meeting; the Jumbos scored a goal in each half (this time thanks to Liz Reed ‘21), and limited Wesleyan to a mere three shot attempts. That’s the kind of dominating performance a mid-seeded team needs in order to gain confidence heading into a matchup with arguably the best team in the entire country.

Williams X-Factor: F Sydney Jones ‘21

Sydney Jones ‘21

Jones started the season on a tear, scoring six goals in Williams’s first six games; however, she’s gone on a cold streak since then, tallying just three goals in her last twelve matches.

Jones did score the lone goal in Williams’s 1-0 victory in Medford a few weeks prior and will look to break through once again against a defense that just stifled Wesleyan, who finished fourth in the ‘CAC in goals scored.

Tufts X-Factor(s): F Sophie Lloyd ‘21 and F Liz Reed ‘21

Sophie Lloyd ‘21

Liz Reed ‘21

Both of these ladies deserve praise for the work they’ve done this season. Tufts’s offense would struggle mightily if it wasn’t for them, as the two have combined to score nearly half of the Jumbo’s conference goals. In this instance, one of them playing well will not be suffice enough to defeat Williams. Lloyd and Reed will both have to create multiple scoring chances in order for Tufts to spring the upset.

Preview and Prediction

2006. That’s the last time the Jumbos defeated the Ephs. Since then, Williams has won every single matchup sans a 0-0 tie in 2010. Throw in a few postseason encounters, and you get thirteen losses in fourteen games. Last season, the Jumbos were oh-so-close to getting the monkey of their backs, but fell in a heartbreaker to Williams in the NESCAC Championship, conceding the game-tying goal in the 81st minute and the winner in the 94th.

Both teams employ a defense-first style, frustrating opposing coaches with suffocating ball pressure; however, the offense, at times, can disappear. This is especially true for Tufts, who scored a mere eleven goals in their ten conference games and had the third-worst shooting percentage during the regular season. One glimmer for hope, however, is that when Tufts does score, it’s a collective effort. Although Lloyd and Reed are usually the main contributors, the Jumbos have generated a second-best 10 assists on conference goals season, and this type of ball movement will be crucial in order to break down the best defense in the NESCAC.

Usually I like revenge spots, but there’s just no way I can go against the Ephs. Talent-wise, they’re head and shoulders above the Jumbos, and William’s impenetrable back line has given up just four goals in conference play. Sure Colby found the net this past weekend, but the Ephs already had that game well in hand. Olivia Barnhill ‘19 is the best goalkeeper in the league, and I’m banking on the senior having yet another superb game. With home-field advantage for the regular season champions, I like Williams to win convincingly. Unfortunately for the Jumbos, the streak lives on.

Prediction: Williams 2-0 Tufts

Saturday, November 3rd (Semifinal #2 @ Williamstown, Mass): #2 Middlebury vs. #3 Amherst

How did they get here:

On Saturday’s lone fixture, 2nd-seeded Middlebury defeated the 7th-seeded Polar Bears 1-0. They say the final score is all that matters, but the stats indicate some concerns for this Panther squad. After Eliza Robertson ‘21 scored the game’s lone goal in the 19th minute, the Polar Bears proceeded to dominate the ball, desperately looking for an equalizer. Eva Shaw ‘20 recorded a career high 10 saves, bailing out the Panther defense time and time again. Bowdoin ended up outshooting the Panthers 19-10; maybe the Panthers were looking ahead, but if they replicate this performance on Saturday, the team will board their bus back to Vermont earlier than previously anticipated.

The Mammoths also endured a tight contest with 6th-seeded Hamilton, holding on for a 1-0 victory. Goal-scoring machine Rubii Tamen ‘19 scored for the fourth consecutive game, and Antonia Tammaro ‘21 made a spectacular save in the second half to preserve the shutout. The Mammoth defense has bounced back nicely since allowing a season-high three goals to Wesleyan, producing back-to-back shutouts. Granted, Trinity and Hamilton don’t even come close to Middlebury in terms of offensive productivity, but it’s surely a positive sign as we trek deeper into postseason play.

Middlebury X-Factor: F Eliza Van Voorhis ‘21

Eliza Van Voorhis ‘21

On a team loaded with offensive talent, Van Voorhis might be the best of the bunch. She leads the Panthers in goals and SOG, and Middlebury is undefeated this season when Van Voorhis finds the back of the net. She disappeared in last weekend’s quarterfinal against Bowdoin (0 SOG), and the Panthers will need Van Voorhis to, at the very least, be more involved in the flow of the game in order to move past Amherst. I expect a bounce back performance from the rising star.

Amherst X-Factor: GK Antonia Tammaro ‘21

Antonia Tammaro ‘21

Tammaro took over the starting keeper role after Amherst’s 3-1 loss to Middlebury, and she hasn’t looked back. Tammaro is just behind Barnhill in both save percentage and goals allowed per game. She had one hiccup in a 3-2 loss to Wesleyan, but has since responded well, making a combined 10 saves in their past two victories. It’s a tall task for any goalkeeper to keep the Panthers from finding the back of the net more than once, but if Tammaro can limit the Panthers to, at worst, a single goal, then she’ll give her offense a very good chance of springing the mini upset.

Preview and Prediction:

When these two met back in September, the score (3-1 Middlebury) did not indicate how close the game really was. The Mammoths actually held a slight shot advantage of 19-18, parlayed with a significant edge in corners (7-2). Moreover, Amherst was in the middle of a goalie conundrum as the former starter, Erica Sanders ‘20, conceded all three goals in 70 minutes of play. Amherst is a tough matchup for the Panthers; Tamen and the rest of the offense certainly have the capability to trade offensive blows with Middlebury. On the flip side, Amherst has proven it can irritate opposing offenses with a solid back line.

I’ve made it a point to make the Middlebury offense a focal point of the article, and for good reason: they’re the only NESCAC team averaging over two goals per game, and have assisted on 18 of their 25 conference goals. It’s a well-oiled machine that, when functioning up to their capability, is nearly impossible to play catch-up with. The Panthers didn’t earn the #2 seed based solely on their offensive skills, however; they sneakily have the second-best defense in the ‘CAC. Ursula Alwang ‘20 is an extremely talented goalkeeper in her own right, and had a spectacular performance against Amherst in their prior matchup, recording eight saves. However, she has not played in the past four games, with Eva Shaw stepping up in her absence.

The Panther offense has been quiet in their past two games, and they’re due for an explosion. Amherst will make some noise early, but Middlebury will tighten up when they need to. Then, that potent offense will take over and propel this team to victory, setting up a date with Williams.

Prediction: Middlebury 3-2 Amherst

We’re not done yet folks!

There’s still a championship game to be played following the completion of the semifinal matches. Thus, we’re giving readers a two-for-one special and providing a brief championship prediction. Hopefully I correctly predicted the two finalists or else this will blow up in my face.

Sunday, November 4th (@ Williamstown, Mass): #1 Williams vs. #2 Middlebury

This is the rematch NESCAC followers want; a titanic battle between the top two heavyweights of the league. A few weeks prior, Williams and Middlebury faced off in the regular season finale to decide who would claim the regular season title. It was Williams who prevailed on their home soil, stymying the Middlebury attack en route to a 1-0 victory. The Panthers outplayed the Ephs, holding an edge in shots (9-4). The lone goal was scored off a beautiful free kick from Aspen Pierson ‘21, bending the ball around the wall and past Shaw.

Having the best defense in the league certainly helps when you’re trying to contain the NESCAC’s best offense. The great Bear Bryant once said “defense wins championships”; I beg to differ for the sake of this article. The Panthers know they’re the better team, and once they skate by Amherst, they’ll be licking their chops at the opportunity to dethrone Williams on their own soil.

Moreover, Williams lost in the NESCAC tournament in 2014, won it all in 2015, lost in 2016, and won it again in 2017.  This pattern of results is screaming for me to pick Middlebury, so I can’t just buck the trend now.

Prediction: Middlebury 2-1 Williams

2018 Midseason Awards Update

Midseason NESCAC Awards

At this point in the season, we usually see a couple of teams separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Through six games, Amherst is the only undefeated team remaining (although their strength of schedule to date is nothing to scream about). Trinity and Tufts loom in the background with just one loss. The parity at the top of the table allows for some exciting MVP predictions, so without further ado, here they are:

Coach of the Year: Jeff Devanney, Trinity

Coach Devanney, Trinity

Initially, I penciled in Mark Raymond of Williams, but after last Saturday’s hiccup against Middlebury and this past week’s loss to Tufts, I’m siding with Jeff Devanney of Trinity. After securing NESCAC Championships in 2016 and 2017, Coach Devanney has his side right in the thick of things in 2018. There were some questions surrounding Trinity’s offensive identity heading into their 2018 campaign: how would Coach Devanney utilize Rhode Island transfer Jordan Vazzano ‘21? Could Vazzano gel quick enough with star running back Max Chipouras ‘19 and the wide receivers? Through five games, it’s safe to say the Bantams are having no problem moving the ball and finding the end zone. The offense is by far the most effective in the league, averaging 38.4 ppg.  Despite Vazzano’s completion percentage ranking dead last in the NESCAC, his passing yards/game and throwing yards per attempt lead all starting quarterbacks. In addition, Chipouras is the only running back in the NESCAC to average over 100 ypg. The defense isn’t too shabby either, stifling opposing rushers to a mere 71.4 ypg. The 13-year head coach has things rolling again in Hartford, and they have the personnel to secure their third straight NESCAC Championship.

Defensive Player of the Year:

  1. TJ Rothmann ‘21, LB, Williams

TJ Rothmann ’21

Rothmann is the heart and soul on defense for this young Eph squad. He had a fantastic freshman season at Williams, landing on the All-NESCAC 2nd Team Defense. The Massachusetts native is third in the NESCAC in tackles and has both an INT and a forced fumble/fumble recovery. His Defensive MVP stock took a slight hit, however, after suffering a broken jaw in the Ephs 21-10 loss to Middlebury two weeks ago. Rothmann was questionable all week before being ruled out for Sunday’s game against Tufts and if his season isn’t over he could improve his stock here. I have absolutely no idea how this is possible, but props to the kid for doing everything to help his team.

2.  Taj Gooden ‘21, DL, Wesleyan

Taj Gooden ’21

Gooden had an immediate impact as a freshman defensive lineman for Wesleyan last season, finishing third on the team in tackles for loss. The sophomore from Brooklyn, New York has taken a huge leap this season and cemented himself as one of the league’s dominant interior forces. He ranks second in the conference in both sacks (5) and tackles for loss (11). His best performance of the year came against Colby, where he racked up four tackles for loss along with two sacks. If Wesleyan gets hot and finishes in the top third of the table while Gooden keeps performing at this level, the sophomore could sneak his way up to the top spot.

  1. Andrew Yamin ‘19, DL/LB, Amherst

Andrew Yamin ’19

There’s no sugarcoating it: this dude is an absolute unit. The reigning DPOY isn’t quite on pace to match last season’s ridiculous numbers (13.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss) but he still leads the NESCAC in both those categories (6.5 sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss). The senior from Cheshire, Connecticut is a huge reason why the Mammoths allow a league-best 7.8 ppg, in addition to limiting opponents to a mere 43.3 ypg on the ground. Yamin had a quiet game for his standards two weeks ago at Colby (two tackles, one tackle for loss), but came back strong with a sack against Wesleyan.

Honorable Mentions: Greg Holt ‘20 (Tufts), Jared Ahsler ‘19 (Tufts), Corey Jean-Jacques ‘19 (Trinity)

Offensive Player of the Year:

  1. Jonathan Girard ‘21, WR, Trinity

Jonathan Girard ’21

Girard is the best wide receiver in the ‘CAC, and it’s not even close. He blows away his competitors in yards per game and averages a ridiculous 24.2 yards per catch. His six touchdowns leads the NESCAC; in fact, the only category in which he isn’t at the top is in receptions, and even there he’s third. If Girard continues on this torrid pace, Trinity will be extremely tough to defend; opposing defenses will have to respect the Bantam passing game, leaving holes for Max Chipouras to exploit. 

  1. Bobby Maimaron ‘21, QB, Williams

Bobby Maimaron ’21

Maimaron took the league by storm last season, leading the Ephs to a remarkable 6-3 record after the team finished the 2016-2017 campaign winless. The sophomore wonderkid led Williams to a huge victory against Trinity, vaulting them to the top of the table. Could Maimaron actually engineer one of the craziest turnarounds in NESCAC football history – leading a team who finished 0-8 two years ago to their first NESCAC Championship since 2010? The answer to that question will have to wait (probably until next year), because the Middlebury and Tufts defenses showed that Maimaron is indeed human.  After accounting for twelve total touchdowns/zero turnovers in his first four games, the Ephs’ QB turned the rock over three times in their first defeat of the 2018 season. Maimaron didn’t really bounce back against Tufts, throwing for 0 TDs and barely over 100 yards. He needs to end the year on a very strong note to really be in the conversation.

Ryan McDonald ‘19, QB, Tufts

Ryan McDonald ’19

While the second and third place spots in both the DPOY and OPOY are underclassmen, it’s the seniors who take the top slots – for now. In this case, Tufts quarterback Ryan McDonald has led the Jumbo attack with both his arm and legs. McDonald is first in the ‘CAC with 16 total touchdowns, and averages just under 260 total yards per game. In their 38-24 loss to Trinity two weeks ago, McDonald outdueled Jordan Vazzano, throwing for nearly 300 yards combined with three total touchdowns. He had a strong performance in the Tufts win against Williams which was pivotal for the OPOY race. With 3 games left, McDonald is definitely the frontrunner.

Honorable Mentions: Ollie Eberth ‘20 (Amherst), Max Chipouras ‘19 (Trinity), Mark Piccirillo ‘19 (Wesleyan)

Women’s Soccer Power Rankings #2

One Month Down, One to Go: Penultimate Women’s Soccer Power Rankings

  1. Middlebury (10-0-0, 5-0-0)

Despite Williams being the #3 team in the country, I have no problem putting the Panthers at the top of my list. They’re the only undefeated team left in the NESCAC and have won four of their five conference games by two goals or more. It’s the best start in Middlebury program history, and it’s clear this team has the capability to go toe-to-toe with Williams.  Leah Salzman ’21 and Sabrina Glaser ’20 continue to headline the offensive front, while Olivia Miller ’20 has registered three assists. In fact, the Panthers have the most assists in NESCAC games, signifying this team knows how to move the ball around the pitch and create scoring chances for one another. The defense has been superb, and this weekend’s home date with a struggling Jumbos squad looks like a much easier task than previously thought.

  1. Williams (8-0-1, 5-0-1)

Williams is still recognized by the D3 soccer community as the one of the top teams in the country, and technically sit atop the conference standings (albeit they have played an extra NESCAC game than Middlebury). After a defensive stalemate with Amherst ended their perfect start, the Ephs has since rebounded with victories against Bates and Conn College. Goalkeeper Olivia Barnhill ’19 commands a virtually impenetrable defensive unit who have allowed a mere two goals to date (including none in their last four conference games). Sydney Jones ’21 remains a one-person wrecking crew on offense, ranking first in goals scored and points (goals + assists) in conference play.  If Williams can get the offense churning on a consistent basis, they’d be almost impossible to defeat. The Ephs are the only NESCAC team that does not play a fellow conference opponent this weekend.

  1. Amherst (7-1-1, 3-1-1)

The Mammoths parlayed their 0-0 deadlock against Williams with dominating performances against Tufts and Bates, vaulting them into the third spot in this week’s power rankings. The offense is starting to catch fire, tallying fifteen goals in their past three games; in particular,  Alexa Juarez ’22 has been the star of the show, finding the net five times and cementing herself as a clear frontrunner for rookie of the year. Goalie Antonia Tammaro ‘21 has seen an increase in playing time since the Middlebury loss and has played superbly, allowing just a single goal. Amherst has a tricky date with Hamilton on Saturday, as the Continentals are technically in third place at the moment (although Amherst has played two less games). Securing three points would allow the Mammoths to leapfrog Hamilton with a relatively manageable back portion of the schedule (Conn, Colby, @Wesleyan, and Trinity).

  1. Tufts (6-2-1, 3-1-1)

The Jumbos had a tough go of it last weekend: on Saturday, they were blitzed by Amherst to a tune of 3-0, and then barely held on for a 1-1 draw against Hamilton.  The good news is the Jumbos have found a compliment to goal-scoring machine Sophie Lloyd ‘21 – Liz Reed ‘21 leads the NESCAC in assists and has netted three goals of her own to date.  These two must continue to lead the offense if Tufts wants to keep pace with Amherst in the quest for the third seed come playoff time. Up next is a trip to Middlebury, where even a point would be a nice result for a Jumbo team who is 1-2-1 in their last four games.

  1. Hamilton (3-2-3, 3-2-2)

Alex Fontana ’20 notched her 1st goal of the season in Hamilton’s 1-1 draw against Tufts (Hamilton Athletics)

The Continentals were inches away from leaving Medford with a 2-1 victory, but Olivia Rodrigues’s ’21 shot bounced off the crossbar deep in the second period of overtime. Nonetheless, a draw is a nice result for a team trying to sneak their way into the top four of the conference standings. As I previously mentioned, Hamilton currently rounds out the top three; however, they have played seven games, while many teams below them have played either four or five. While they most likely won’t occupy that third spot in the actual standings for much longer, they do have remaining games against lower-tier teams (Bowdoin and Colby), so they can still pick up valuable points. While the offense isn’t producing a ton of goals, the defense continues to stymie opponents, as they’ve allowed less than a goal per game in NESCAC games. The Continentals are hoping their defense travels to Amherst when they take on the Mammoths this Saturday.

  1. Wesleyan (5-2-2, 2-1-2)

Liz Young ’19 found an equalizer late in the second half against Hamilton, allowing the Cardinals to snatch a point and bolster their chances of securing a playoff spot. She’s received help on the offensive end from a surprise source in defender Gianna Argentino ’21, who scored twice against Bates earlier this season. Wesleyan was supposed to play Trinity Tuesday, but it was rescheduled for Wednesday night and ended in a draw. The Cardinals couldn’t come away with three points and missed a big opportunity to join Amherst and Tufts with ten points apiece.

  1. Connecticut College (6-3, 1-3)

The Camels have struggled out of the gate, albeit the losses have come against the top three teams in the NESCAC. Saturday’s 1-0 loss to Williams was a strong showing despite the result, as the Camels had multiple chances to equalize but failed to score on Barnhill. The schedule eases up for a brief moment when the Camels face Bates on Saturday, but this is a must win for Conn if they have any hope of snatching a top-five seed come tournament time. The trio of Kat Norton ‘21 (5 goals and 3 assists), Alex Baltazar ’19 and Tori Kretzmer ’21 should continue to pace the Camel attack, but the offense as a whole needs to perform better in conference games; Conn is converting a league-worst 4.5% of shots into goals, and is tied for last with Bates in goals scored with three.

  1. Bowdoin (5-3-1, 1-3)

Can Morgen Gallagher lead the Polar Bears to the postseason? (Bowdoin Athletics)

Not much has changed with the Polar Bears, as they’ve picked up three non-conference wins to improve their overall record, but were defeated soundly by Middlebury in a game of much higher importance. Bowdoin wasn’t expected to win by any means, but they were thoroughly dominated right from the get-go. Their two leading goal scorers (Morgen Gallagher ’20 and Julia Adelmann ‘22) have failed to score in any of their NESCAC games, and they’ll be needed to produce against Trinity, a game the Polar Bears should look at as a must win. Not to be overlooked, the following day’s rivalry matchup with Colby could be a de-facto 8th place game. Since the back end of Bowdoin’s schedule includes Hamilton, Williams, Conn and Tufts, the Polar Bears desperately need positive results this weekend.

  1. Colby (4-4, 1-4)

Just when it looked like the Mules were out for the count, they mounted a furious comeback in the final five minutes and snatched three points right from Trinity’s claws. Charlotte White ’22 scored in the 85th minute and later assisted on Catherine Fraser’s ’19 absolute peach of a winner, bringing life back into Colby’s season (I’m ignoring their following losses to Conn and Middlebury for the sake of the moment). Similarly to Bowdoin, Colby’s playoff hunt will basically be decided this weekend: with home games against Wesleyan and the Polar Bears, the Mules need points in order to jump into the top eight. Amherst, Hamilton and Bates remain on the back end of the schedule, but the first two appear (on paper) as losses.  A win against the Bobcats, while important, probably won’t matter if the Mules lose both contests against the Cardinals and Polar Bears.

  1. Trinity (3-4-2, 1-3-1)

The Bantams aren’t officially out of the picture, but their collapse against Colby has them on the outside looking in. I was curious to see how the Bantams would respond after such a heartbreaking defeat, and they bounced back nicely with a 2-1 victory against Bates. Colleen Lux ’22 leveled the score at 1-1 halfway through the second half, and Duun O’Hara ‘22 broke the deadlock in the 88th minute. Trinity kept their momentum going with a big tie against Wesleyan on Wednesday night and now head north to take on the Polar Bears.

  1. Bates (2-7, 0-7)

While no team is technically eliminated from playoff contention, the Bobcats are oh-so-close to being the first NESCAC team to claim that honor (or lack thereof). Saturday’s game against Trinity needed to end with some sort of positive result, and Riley Turcotte ’20 got things started with a goal in the 16th minute; however, the Bobcats squandered the lead late in the second half, leaving them 0-7 in conference play. While there’s no magic number for qualification, Bates will probably have to earn at least seven points from their remaining three matches (two wins and a tie), and even then the number might be too low.  To make things more complicated, one of those games is a road trip to undefeated Middlebury. Ouch. But first, the Bobcats must take one game at a time, starting with a home date against the Camels. 

 

Looking a Little Lopsided: Week 3 Weekend Preview

Middlebury (1-1) @ Colby (0-2)

The Panthers have some serious problems right now: first and foremost, the run defense was abysmal in their 37-24 win against Bowdoin. The Polar Bears averaged a mere 98 rushing yards per game last season, but were able to compile a whopping 289 yards on the ground against a porous Middlebury defense. Not to be overlooked, quarterback Jack Meservy ’19 was benched late in the third quarter after throwing his third interception.  On came Will Jernigan ‘21, who relied heavily on running backs Peter Scibilia ’21 and Drew Jacobs ’19 to orchestrate two scoring drives and secure the victory. Clearly there is a quarterback controversy brewing in Middlebury, and it will be interesting to see how snaps are split (if at all) this Saturday in Waterville.

QB Matt Hersch ’22 could be the future of the program for the Mules

Luckily for Middlebury, Colby is the perfect team to play against in this situation and correct such problems.  The Mules also seem to have a quarterback question, as Jack O’Brien ’20 was yanked for youngster Matt Hersch ‘22; the former struggled mightily, going 1-8 for a paltry three yards. Hersch was quite impressive in his first extensive action as a member of the Mules, finishing 14-18 for 119 yards. Colby’s pass defense has far exceeded expectations through the first two games of the season: opposing quarterbacks are completing less than 40% of their pass attempts (18-46). The problem lies in the run defense, as the Mules are giving up over 300 yds/game on the ground.

What’s going to happen:  To start things off, I’m going to say both teams stay true to their mid-game quarterback changes; Meservy has yet to show the capability to limit mistakes (he leads the NESCAC with six interceptions) and O’Brien was unable to lead the Mule offense to a single scoring drive in his first two games.  I’m interested to see if both backups can capitalize on their respective starter’s ineffectiveness, and this game presents the perfect opportunity for both Middlebury and Colby to see if there are better options at the quarterback position. For the Panthers, Jernigan and the run-heavy approach he brings is a better suited game plan to attack the Mule run defense (or lack thereof). On the opposite end, starting Hersch forces the Panthers to respect the pass and could potentially open more running lanes for Colby workhorse Jake Schwern ’19. The Mules have every right to believe they can win this game, but the Panthers are too talented and will ultimately pull away in the second half.

Prediction: Middlebury 30 – Colby 13

Amherst (2-0) @ Bowdoin (0-2)

After another slow first half, the Amherst offense exploded for 23 points in 17 minutes as they cruised past the Continentals 37-14. Quarterback Ollie Eberth ‘20 remains the key piece for this team, as he accounted for 225 all-purpose yards and three scores. The Amherst defense is off to a great start, allowing a mere 39 rushing yds/game. Versatile pass-rusher Andrew Yamin ’19 has been a nightmare to block, totaling four tackles for loss through the first two games.

The Polar Bears were oh so close to pulling off the upset against Middlebury last week, ultimately falling 37-24. The Polar Bears actually led 24-23 late in the third quarter, but failed to score in the final 15 minutes and the defense could not contain the run.  Nate Richam ’20 set a new school-record for most rushing yards in a single contest with 289, adding two scores in the process. Division 1 transfer Austin McCrum struggled again, barely completing 50% of his pass attempts and throwing three interceptions. In order for Bowdoin to have any shot this Saturday, McCrum has to be more effective.

What’s going to happen: Bowdoin turned some heads last weekend with the emergence Richam, but this week feels like it could be all Mammoths. Amherst will most certainly stack the box in an attempt to limit Richam’s success while forcing McCrum to out gun their secondary.  Can McCrum shake off his slow start? My guess is no, especially against a stingy defensive unit that’s anxious to prove they belong in the conversation for the league’s best. Bowdoin also comes in to this contest allowing a league-worst 324.5 rushing yds/game, and the Mammoths churn out 267 rushing yds/game….something tells me Amherst will establish the run early and often. Eberth will get his fair share of yards, running back Jack Hickey ’19 will find the end zone a couple of times, and the Mammoths will gash the Polar Bear D.

Prediction: Amherst 37 – Bowdoin 16

Hamilton (0-2) @ Wesleyan (1-1)

The Continentals aren’t the only team in the ‘CAC who have had trouble stopping the run; in their 37-14 defeat at the hands of Amherst, Hamilton allowed over 300 yards on the ground.  A larger problem might be their inability to run the ball. Hamilton has run the ball 42 times…..for 7 yards. For you math wizards, that’s 3.5 yards A GAME. I’m not a defensive genius by any means, but it’s fairly easy to see opposing defenses are not respecting the Continental rushing unit or their offensive line.  Quarterback Kenny Grey ’20 bounced back from an abysmal performance against Tufts, but he desperately needs some help from his ground unit this week. Otherwise, this is going to be a blow out.

No disrespect to the Jumbos (who played their hearts out), but Wesleyan beat themselves last Saturday. In addition to essentially giving the Jumbos seven points on a fumble during a kickoff, some of the Cardinals’ miscues included: giving up a 3rd and 16 conversion (led to a touchdown), a failed 4th and 1 conversion inside the Jumbo 10 yd line, and two missed field goals (one of them from the 27 yards). Mark Piccirillo ’19 accounted for 267 of Wesleyan’s 334 total yards, but failed to register a single touchdown. The Cardinal defense has been superb in their first two NESCAC games and when disregarding the touchdown Tufts scored when they started at Wesleyan’s own 11 yard line, they gave up a mere nine points. They’re tied for first in the NESCAC with four interceptions, and the secondary will be licking their chops this weekend, hoping to tally a few more.

What’s going to happen: Hamilton has clearly been a disappointment through the early portion of the season, and I don’t see it getting any better this weekend. The Continentals simply can’t run the ball and Gray can only do so much through the air when the defense is only worried about stopping the aerial attack.  The Cardinals know they must win out to have any chance at claiming a NESCAC Championship, and I expect Piccirillo to take the bull by the horns with a monster performance. Wesleyan will come out firing early and keep their foot on the gas in an absolute blowout.

Prediction: Wesleyan 41 – Hamilton 10

Bates (0-2) @ Tufts (2-0)

After a phenomenal effort against Amherst, Bates fell apart against the Bantams. Despite a stagnant offense, the Bobcat defense kept them in the game with 4:30 left in the second quarter after Anthony Costa’s ‘21 pick six. The Bantams then scored 14 points to close out the half, and two fumbles early in the 3rd quarter all but confirmed the loss.  The 59 points is an extremely ugly number, but I’d argue it’s predominantly on the offense: Bates is averaging a horrific 126 ypg, and is second-to-last in time of possession. Hard-hitting safety John Lindgren ’20 and the rest of the defense need the offensive unit to produce more sus

The Bobcats need more out of their offense if they’re going to stay in games

tained drives; against Trinity, the Bobcats had seven three-and-outs along with two fumbles within the first three plays of a drive.  The air-raid offense is going to take some time to become effective, but the ‘Cats need to manufacture more first downs in order to (at the very least) give their defensive unit a much needed breather.

On the flip side, the Tufts defense stymied Wesleyan’s potent attack en route to a 16-13 victory. They didn’t force any takeaways (special teams caused the only fumble) but they had seven TFL and came up with a monumental 4th down stop in their own red zone. Quarterback Ryan McDonald ’19 did just enough against a tough Cardinal defense, throwing for 172 yards and two scores. It should be easier to move the ball against the Bobcats, but Tufts will look to establish some sort of run game; after racking up 207 yards on the ground vs. Hamilton, the Jumbos came up with just 55 yards against the Cardinals.

What’s going to happen:  With last week’s performance, Tufts has squarely positioned themselves as a championship-caliber team.  They cannot afford a letdown against the Bobcats, who will be hungry to prove they’re better than last week’s beatdown indicated. I’ll predict a defensive stalwart for most of the first half, but Tufts will finally wear down the Bates defense as the second half progresses. The Bobcats will have a hard time moving the ball against Tuft’s stout D, and McDonald will lead the Jumbos to a 3-0 start.

Prediction: Tufts 27 – Bates 13