Trinity vs. Salve Regina; Friday, May 17, 2:30 PM @ DiBenedetto Field
Trinity somehow (via a great strength of schedule and many impressive non-conference wins) snuck into the NCAA tournament after missing the NESCAC tournament which is unusual. They showed this year that they are certainly capable of facing NCAA caliber teams and winning, shown by an extensive 10+ wins against regionally ranked opponents. They aren’t overly impressive in any statistical category other than stolen bases where their total of 129 is second to just Middlebury in the NESCAC who led the nation in 2019. A .291 team average is pretty middle of the pack as is their 3.99 team ERA. It’s not overly surprising that Trinity finished with such a good record given these metrics, but how did they beat so many good teams since nothing really stands out?
How they got here:
Trinity’s 10-5 record against regionally ranked opponents and #44 strength of schedule nationally led to their #4 ranking in the New England region granting them an at-large berth. With this regional ranking, there were a definite lock to get this bid, so it came as no surprise when they got the call this Monday. Their most impressive wins this year were against Southern Maine and Wheaton (MA) so let’s take a look at the winning formula from those contests that the Bantams will need this weekend. Andrew DeRoche ’20 took the ball against the Southern Maine Huskies, throwing 3.1 innings and was relieved by Erik Mohl ’19 who tossed the next 3.2 innings. It’s clear that Johnny Stamatis ’19 and Matt Koperniak ’20 are the key catalysts for this lineup as they swipe tons of bags, have power, and hit for average. Stamatis had 2 RBI against the Huskies and Koperniak added an RBI against Wheaton. Cameron Crowley ’22 threw against Wheaton, tossing 5.2 innings of three-run ball and Mohl collected the save. The Bantams also won 7-3 and 9-1 against Salve during the season and what was the common denominator? Erik Mohl. While Andrew DeRoche started in one of those games, Mohl relieved in both and has shown that he is an innings eater.
What’s Next:
Mohl must continue to have such a versatile and consistent role for the Bantams for them to continue in the playoffs. Mohl’s ability to reliably eat innings, bridging the starting pitchers to the back of the bullpen is crucial and the diversifying factor for the Bantam team. While they swipe bags and have a few real weapons in their lineup, every single other team in the NCAA tournament does too. The Trinity lineup is nothing special. However, coupled with sufficient starting pitching depth is the NESCAC’s version of Andrew Miller in Mohl who, after being Nothing But NESCAC’s 2018 preseason East Pitcher of the Year, had a tough 2018 season, but is really bouncing back in 2019. The lefty has thrown 45 innings in 21 appearances in the 2019 season. 21 appearances is absurd. Don’t be surprised to see Mohl throw in every single game this weekend. Pairing the lefty Mohl with Crowley, DeRoche, Jimmy Fahey ’22, and Will Simeone ’22, the Bantams will showcase an unusually deep pitching arsenal that makes them competitive in every game they play.
Salve Regina Seahawks:
Salve Regina earned the CCC tournament’s automatic bid after winning the last 2/3 games in their championship series against Roger Williams. They like to run a little bit (66 steals) and have more pop than Trinity with Sr. OF Zack Smith ’19 leading the team with 9 round-trippers. Their team average of .297 is respectable and extremely comparable to Trinity’s profile as the Seahawks have the #49 D3 strength of schedule per d3baseball.com’s metrics. They also bolster a strong starting rotation with three arms with 40+ innings while two of them, Michael Matthews ’21 and Patrick Mayback ’20, have over 13 K/9. For reference, not a single NESCAC starting pitcher with over 40 innings had over a 9 K/9. Where they falter is in their bullpen as they do not have any primary relievers with under a 4.8 ERA. What’s likely to happen is that some of their midweek starters (Tom Beliveau ’20 and Michael Viveiros ’21) will be converted to relievers for the weekend of games. And while Trinity is 2-0 on the season series against the Seahawks, one of those games was on a Tuesday which essentially nixes that contest from comparison for the postseason since the starting pitchers are not close to what we will see today and the second game was ‘staffed’ by Salve, meaning they did not throw a starter for more than two innings.
Matchup Preview:
Will Ginsberg ’19 vs Andrew DeRoche ’20
Salve should not start Ginsberg in this game, but I’d bet that they do anyways. Coaches always put their seniors on the mound in game one for their experience, competitiveness, etc, but this is a safe and ill-sited decision in this case. Ginsberg leads the team in innings but has allowed 71 hits in 67 innings and struck out just 52 (6.95 K/9). They should throw Patrick Mayback but their second option should be Michael Matthews due to their swing and miss arsenals.
For the Bantams, DeRoche is likely to start despite Crowley’s All-NESCAC selection and 8-0 record. Crowley’s record is deceiving as are all win-loss records as he has had unsustainable success levels (24 walks and 24 K’s in 51 innings is a bad FIP…) whereas DeRoche has been a mainstay all season and has been extremely consistent going deep into outings. Crowley, albeit, has been dominant of late, closing the year off with 26 innings of two-run baseball, but I’d still go with DeRoche in game one and save Crowley for game two of the weekend and try to jump into the championship game.
I don’t think this will be a heavy offensive affair, however, Trinity will scrap their way to several runs. Barring a power surge from Salve, Trinity’s experience this season and track record winning close games should give them a surefire edge to open the weekend.
Game #1: (2) Bates vs (1) Williams – Friday @ 2:30 PM
The first game of this year’s NESCAC playoffs features the #2 seed in the East, Bates, taking on the #1 from the West, Williams. Williams was able to edge themselves to the top of the West, taking the #1 seed from Middlebury based on head-to-head record. Williams was able to capture this title through defeating Wesleyan in the final game of their series last weekend. A Kellen Hatheway 2-run home run in the top of the 9th broke the even score and eventually sent Williams on to the tournament. Bates is probably the biggest surprise in this field. Trinity was ranked better than them all season, and even had received national votes, but after taking 2 of three games from the Bantams at home, Bates went on to sweep both of their CBB rivals and secure themselves a playoff spot, 1 game ahead of Trinity.
Williams: LHP Jack Bohen ’19 (5-0, 2.24 ERA, 44.2IP)
Williams will likely feature senior left hander Jack Bohen on the mound to face the Bobcats. Bohen has had an absolute career-year this season, lowering his ERA from 4.60 last year down to 2.24 this year. Bohen is coming off of what was most likely the best, and most important, game of his career to date. In a must-win series Bohen came out and tossed 8 innings, giving up no earned runs and walking just 2. It is clear to see in that stat book that Bohen is a pitch-to-contact hitter, because in those 8 innings of work he had just one strikeout. It is not always about the punchout and Bohen has been proving that this year. He has all the momentum he needs and I’m sure that he will not be looking to take his first loss of the season in this game. Bates will counter Bohen with right Nolan Collins, a junior from California. Collins had a breakout sophomore season last year in which he secured the #1 spot in the rotation. Since then he has done nothing but improve and help propel Bates to the playoffs. Aside from a bad start against Tufts, that most starters would’ve been happy with against the Jumbos, Collins has provided his team with more than enough opportunity to win in every game he has started, and for the most part they have won. Versus the common opponents that Bohen and Collins started against, Colby and Wesleyan, they have fairly similar numbers, perhaps Bohen having a slight edge. Both of these pitchers are in the top tier of NESCAC talent. It might be a struggle for both teams to get into an offensive rhythm, but it is the playoffs and anything can happen.
Key Offensive Talent
Bates
Christian Beal ’21
You can’t talk about the Bates lineup without talking about Christian Beal ’21. Beal paces Bates with his 49 hits (4th in NESCAC), .371 AVG (4th in NESCAC), 9 doubles, 2 triples and 11 stolen bases. He is the spark plug for Bates and when he plays well, they play well. Bates are 10-5 in games which Beal collects 2 or more hits, and the fact that there are 15 games shows how impactful he has been. Supporting Beal is catcher Jack Arend ’20 who is hitting .370 with 23 RBI. Arend also leads the NESCAC in walks with 33, putting his OBP at .548, also tops in the conference. Arend’s uncanny ability to draw the walk is a valuable weapon, as can be seen by his 21 runs scored, 2nd best on the team. Justin White ’19, Bryan Gotti ’22 and Jon Lindgren ’20 have also been important pieces in the lineup, all three of them are hitting over .300. Bates has a couple of high quality offensive weapons with the support of several impactful bats. While this may have been enough against teams like Colby and Bowdoin, against teams like Williams, Bates may have to exceed expectations just to keep up.
Williams
Williams has one of the most potent offenses in the NESCAC. As a team, they lead the NESCAC in triples with 17, are second in the NESCAC with a .308 team average and are also second in hits with 340. One of William’s offensive starts that is much to thank for these stats is Eric Pappas ’21. Pappas is tied for the league lead in hits and reaches base nearly half the time with his .493 OBP. When a player almost has double as many hits as games, it is a good sign that they’re having a solid year. This is true of not only Pappas, but also his teammate Doug Schaffer ’19. Along with his 53 hits, Schaffer is 2nd in the NESCAC in doubles with 12 and leads the NESCAC in batting average (.433) and slugging (.633). Perhaps more impressive than all of these stats, Schafer leads the NESCAC is RBI with 46, 14 more than the next closest player. Schafer has an extremely strong case for Player of the Year and an invaluable asset for the Ephs. Erik Mini ’21 has provided some well-timed offense this year with his 3 home runs and 27 RBI. Kellen Hatheway ’19 has only started ⅔ of Williams’ contests but he had made the most of his time, hitting .407 and blasting the home run that sent Williams to the playoffs. Williams has proved throughout the year that they are one of the most potent offenses in the NESCAC and it will be tough for any starter to keep them completely quiet.
Prediction: (W1) Williams defeats (E2) Bates
Game #2: (2) Middlebury vs (1) Tufts – Friday @ 6 PM
After the conclusion of Bates versus Williams, Midd and Tufts will take the field for their first tastes of the 2019 postseason. Middlebury returns to the playoffs this year after narrowly missing out last season. They had basically the same scenario last year as they did this year, beat Amherst in a series and they’re in. While last year they fell short, they were able to redeem themselves this season and secure their playoff spot. Now they have to take on Tufts, who is looking for redemption after falling short of the NESCAC title last season. Tufts has had fairly smooth sailing in-conference this season, winning every series and sweeping Bowdoin and Colby.
Morris and Hall have both been four-year starters for their respective programs, and were the only two pitchers to be named 1st Team All-NESCAC last season, with Morris taking Pitcher of the Year honors as well. It is safe to say that these two are among the most experienced and talented players in the NESCAC this season, and they will need to leave it all on the line Friday night to outduel their counterpart. In all but one of his starts this season Morris has gone at least 5 innings and given up 3 or less runs. In his last two starts Morris has left it all out on the line for his team, going all 9 in both starts. Morris is one of, if not the most, decorated pitchers in the history of the Middlebury program but is yet to capture that elusive NESCAC title. This will be one of the biggest games of Morris’ career and he has proved throughout that career that he won’t give in until the last pitch. Morris will need to maintain that ferocity in order to compete with RJ Hall, who has been extremely effective at keeping opponents off this scoreboard this season. Similar to Morris, Hall has recorded two complete games in his last two contests (although they were both 7 inning games). While Morris may have more career innings pitched than Hall, Hall has far and away more playoff experience than Morris. In Hall’s 5 playoff appearances, 4 starts, he has pitched a total of 35 innings and has a record of 2-2 with one save. Meanwhile Morris has just 2 starts, totalling 13 ⅓ IP and a 1-1 record. It is also important to note that Hall’s playoff ERA is 1.29 while Morris’ is 4.05. Perhaps experience in these high-stress playoff situations will prove vital and become a big advantage for Tufts, who has a roster chalk full of playoff experiences. It is also important to note that this matchup has already occured this year and it is evidence of just how closely these two starters matchup. In the previous game Tufts won on an 8th inning walk-off 4-3. Both Morris and Hall went for 6 innings and gave up three runs. Their statline was near identical. Based upon how close that result was, there is no clear edge here. It’s anybody’s game.
Key Offensive Players:
Middlebury
Middlebury’s offense has managed to score twice as many runs as its opponents this year, showing their dominance on both sides of the ball. This is thanks to the fact that their offense is so well-rounded and has valuable weapons up and down it. 8 Middlebury hitters have already collected 20 or more hits, with three more (Justin Han, Brooks Carroll and Henry Strmecki) have 35 or more. Similarly, 9 different Panthers have gone deep this year with three of them (Henry Strmecki ’21, Kevin Woodring ’20, and Alec Ritch ’22) have left the yard multiple times. From those statistic you could probably guess that Henry Strmecki is a vital part of the Midd offense, and you would be right. Strmecki is 2nd on the team in hits (35), batting average (.330) and leads the team in runs (34), RBI (24) and leads the NESCAC in home runs with 5. Justin Han ’20 has also been impressive for Midd, leading the team in hist with 36, doubles with 8 and stolen bases with 22. Stealing bags is where Midd excels and they will steal early and often. They have stolen 142 bags while they’ve had just 36 stolen against them. They are running with an 88.2% success rate compared to opponents 80%. 14 Middlebury players have recorded steals with 6 of them stealing 12 or more. Middlebury runs a fast, high-potency offense that is more than a challenge to contain, but if anyone were to be up to that challenge it would be RJ Hall and the Jumbos.
Tufts
Not enough can be said to describe how much better Tufts’ hitting is than basically every other team in the NESCAC East. In-conference they are hitting .319 and the next closest in the East is Bates with .283. They also have the most hits (128), triples (3), home runs (7), RBI (72), OBP (.414) and slugging (.442). Tufts has just been flat out better than all of their NESCAC opponents. While these numbers are real and hold value, it is important to note the level of competition in the East versus the West. The East was so top-heavy this year that it allowed the far and away best team, Tufts, to gain inflated statistics compared to NESCAC West teams. They gain this advantage because the level of competition is much more even in the West so it is much more difficult to gain the dominant statistics that many Tufts players have. That being said, they are still most likely the best offense in the NESCAC. 6 different Jumbos have multiple home runs and 6 of their starters are hitting at or well above .300. Elias Varinos ’20 leads the the team in hits with 45 and walks with 23. Casey Santos-Ocampo ’19 paces the team in dingers with 4 and freshman Peter DeMaria ’22 leads the NESCAC in doubles with 15. Tufts has no soft spots in their lineup and pitchers need to be mentally aware of that going in. You can’t feed a fastball to the 9 hitter because he can take you yard too. I’m yet to be convinced that anyone can truly outclass Tufts’ offense, so Midd will have to show us something special Friday.
In this game Tufts holds the clear advantage. They will be upset that they lost their initial game and take their anger out on an already down Bates team. Brent Greeley ’20 would most likely start the second game for the Jumbos and he has been solid this year, holding a 3-2 record and 2.99 ERA. Bates would send out Justin Foley ’19, who has a 6-2 record with a 3.59 ERA. These two did not match up head to head in the regular season but both recorded wins against each othersrespective club. In all reality, Tufts is the far more talented and experienced club and would be unlucky to win their first game and have no chance of letting the first two slip by when they’ve lost just 2 conference games all year.
Prediction: (E1) Tufts defeats (E2) Bates, (E2) Bates is eliminated
(1) Williams vs. (2) Middlebury – Saturday @ 2 PM
Sam Rohrer ’22
This matchup will likely feature Middlebury senior Colin Waters ’19 and Williams freshman Sam Rohrer ’22. Waters has the experience over the rookie Rohrer, but Waters has struggled this year while Rohrer has impressed many in his freshman campaign. Last time against Midd Rohrer went 7 strong innings and only gave up one run to get the win. Against Williams Waters went 6 innings and gave up 4 runs in a loss. Well the numbers and this years past tell us that Rohrer and Williams have the clear advantage, a playoff atmosphere and a underdog win against Tufts might propel Midd to championship Sunday.
Prediction: (W1) Williams defeats (W2) Middlebury
(1) Tufts vs. (2) Middlebury – Saturday 45 minutes after Williams vs. Midd
Tufts an Midd meet once again here in a rematch of the first round. This game is an elimination one so everything is one the line for both teams. This is where arm health and depth really comes into play. Midd likely will send freshman Alex Price ’22 to the mound here who has been lights out the last few weeks and is certainly a candidate for freshman of the year along with several of the Tufts first year hitters. Their conference leading ERA will be put to the test as will their waning arm health (Starter Michael Farinelli ’21 hasn’t pitched in weeks), however, they certainly are up to the task. For the Jumbos Hall could certainly appear but their bullpen is very deep, although not as talented as Midd’s, so they have lots of semi-qualified candidates. This game is an absolute free-for-all but I think the Jumbos have a winning tradition, mentality and expectation and will find a way to make the game theirs.
Game 6 @ 10:30 AM, Game 7 30 minutes after game 6 (if necessary)
In this championship scenario, Tufts will need to defeat Williams twice to take the crown while the Ephs just have to take one of the possible two games to be named NESCAC champions. One thing that Williams would have going for them is that they have played 1 less game than the Jumbos, saving important arms. Tufts’ bullpen will have already been overused at this point and one more game let alone two would take a huge toll. That being said, three games in three days is still a lot so while Williams will be in better shape they are not at 100% by any means. These two offenses are probably the best in the NESCAC and they will be facing some very tired pitching staffs. I would expect that Tufts would be able to get to Williams in the first game of the series, but they would have basically spent the lasts of their pitching. This would allow Williams to take the advantage in the final game of the playoffs an come out victorious.
Despite horrible weather forecasts throughout the entire northeast, it looks like the NESCAC teams will do everything they can to get these games in. Teams playing on turf will likely just grit it out and the other matchups will require lots of help from the baseball gods to get played through.
Koperniak has top 3 NESCAC talent…can he bring the Bantams back to the playoffs for the first time since 2016?
This weekend the two big boys of the NESCAC East, Tufts and Trinity, are going head-to-head in a series that will likely determine the playoff seeding in the east. Trinity did not play any conference games last weekend, though they did face two NESCAC West teams in Amherst and Hamilton. The Bantams were able to take care of both of these teams as they swept a Saturday doubleheader from Hamilton and then took a mid-week game from Amherst by a score of 10-5. Trinity should have a wave of momentum going into this series, as they have won 10 of their last 11 games and they are 12-1 at home this season. Matt Koperniak ’20 continues to impress, pacing the team in batting average (.374), hits (46), home runs (4), doubles (10), triples (3) and slugging percentage (.602). It is safe to say that Koperniak is Trinity’s dude and is certainly a candidate for POY. For Tufts the narrative is quite similar, an impressive ballclub who has been beating up on their opponents for the majority of the season. While their play last weekend was cut short due to weather, the Jumbos were still able to pick up another NESCAC win at Colby. That marks their 4th straight NESCAC win, and 6th win out of 7. Nearly every time the Jumbos put out a lineup card, you can find 7 or 8 guys hitting over .300, with several of them well eclipsing this mark. They are a dangerous offense that is backed by quality arms such as Brent Greeley ’20 and RJ Hall ’19. This matchup has no clear favorite, which is something that we don’t often see in the NESCAC East so let’s take the opportunity to enjoy it.
Prediction: Trinity takes 2 of 3
Williams (18-7, 3-3 NESCAC) @ Hamilton (14-14, 4-5 NESCAC)
This series is one of two this weekend that will help to determine the fate of the gridlocked NESCAC West. Currently all five teams sit within two game of each other, Hamilton and Amherst having played 9 games and the other three having played six. Therefore this will be Hamilton final NESCAC series this weekend and anything but a positive result will likely see the Continentals staying in the cellar and out of the playoffs. One thing that Hamilton does have going for them is their home field advantage. At home Hamilton is 7-2 while at other sites they are a combined 7-12. The Continentals seem to be much more comfortable on their home turf and they will need to use that to their advantage this weekend. A positive result from this series is also needed for Williams if they wish to continue their playoff hopes. Next weekend Williams faces Wesleyan, who will be a considerably tougher opponent than Hamilton. Williams will need to secure a positive record now because putting all of their eggs on taking down Wesleyan is not a strategy for success. With all of the implications of this series, I expect that these games have a strong possibility of coming down to the wire. This series will be close, it can be a run or two that determine a game and it can be just one game that decides whether or not you go to the playoffs.
Can Brooks Carroll’s defense save the day for the Panthers in a huge weekend?
This series in the second one which will heavily impact the future of the NESCAC West. Midd and Wesleyan are two of the three teams in the west which are tied with a 3-3 record, half a game back of Amherst for the #1 seed. If Middlebury is able to win this series, they will either be tied with or be a game up on Amherst for first place. This is especially important for the Panthers because they play Amherst in the final series of the year, so if they are tied with or beating them it will leave Midd’s fate in their own hand. Similarly, Wesleyan faces Williams next weekend, the other 3-3 team in the West. A win in this series is equally as crucial for the Cardinals as a loss in this series and a Williams win in their series over Hamilton could make it nearly impossible for Wesleyan to make the playoffs. Middlebury has been plagued by close games this season, losing both of their games to Williams by one run as well as having 3 of their other 6 losses on the season be by one run. The Midd staff should be more than able to keep their team in the game, it can just be a question of whether the offense or defensive play is going to give out. Another thing to note for Midd is that in nearly all of their close losses, they have both committed more errors than their opponent and those errors lead to unearned runs that changed the outcome of the game. Solid defensive play is the key for the Panthers this weekend and if they can maintain that they should be the favorites to win of their home field.
Prediction: Midd takes 2 of 3
Bates (14-13, 4-3 NESCAC) vs. Colby (9-13, 0-7 NESCAC)
If Nolan Collins rolls, so do the Bobcats…They need a sweep this weekend and Collins should be able to get it done in game 1.
For Colby, they are just trying to improve for next season at this point as they develop their younger players and gain experience with their new coach. Colby is not as bad as their conference record shows–they have five starters hitting north of .290 and another four hitting above .470 SLG%. They have had inconsistent pitching, however, and have used five different starers extensively and need to get a big game out of Frank Driscoll ’21, Emery Dinsmore ’20, or Patrick Carbone ’21 to have a shot. For Bates, Nolan Collins ’20 has been electric all season with one poor start against Tufts. While he has allowed a high number of hits at about one per inning, his swing and miss pitches are likely to stifle Mule hitters. Bates is still looking for a third starter, however, and while Justin Foley ’19 has been serviceable at times as a #2, they need to be better to have a chance to sweep Colby. Look for Jack Arend ’20 and Christian Beal ’21 to have big weekends at the plate, leading the Bobcat offense.
Editor’s Note: Spencer seems to think that there’s no way that this series gets played, but I simply see no way that the Maine teams let the weather dictate their schedule. With two games to make up next weekend each, Bates and Colby simply must play these games. The outcome is simply: If Bates sweeps Bowdoin and Colby, they might get in, but if they falter, they are likely out of it.
This weekend is a mess with bad weather, postponing both series’ in the west and effectively ending any players’ chances at an All-American bid due to such a limited amount of weekends with games this year. But–weather is what it is and we are used to it in the Northeast; Here is the preview for the East division teams that are still planning to suit up despite the impending downpour.
Bowdoin (5-17-1, 3-6) vs. Bates (11-11, 3-3) Friday at Bates Saturday at Bowdoin
Bates was impressive in their last NESCAC matchup two weekends ago against Trinity, winning the series 2 games out of 3. Strong performances from Nolan Collins ’20, who went 8+ innings for Bates in game 1, and Antonio Jareno ’22, who collected 6 hits including 2 doubles and a home run, helped fuel the Bobcat’s fire. After taking care of Trinity, Bates proceeded to split a Saturday, non-conference doubleheader against Wesleyan. Collins was once again impressive, earning another win. Bates picked up win number 11 to even themselves up at .500 against Dean and will look to continue to trend positively in their rivalry series against Bowdoin. It was a tough weekend for Bowdoin as the high of their sweep of Colby was turned on its head as their were handed a sweep themselves from Tufts. The first two games were one-run games but game three was an absolute blowout, 16-0. Mid-week looked a lot less rough as the Polar Bears earned their 4th and 5th wins of the season against UMaine Farmington and Husson. Bates certainly has the talent advantage here but as we know, that doesn’t always get it done. Rivalry games are never a sure thing.
Prediction: Bates wins 2 of 3
POSTPONED: Wesleyan (11-13, 3-3) vs Williams (16-7, 3-3) Friday at Williams Saturday at Wesleyan
Williams will roll into Connecticut this weekend looking to gain an edge on Wesleyan as the playoff race in the NESCAC West is close as ever. Williams was impressive last week, winning two of three from a Middlebury team that recently dropped 15 runs in a win over Dartmouth. Sam Rohrer ’22 battled it out with reigning POY Colby Morris ’19 in game one and was able to take home the win as the Williams defense proved more formidable than Midd’s. Game two was a blowout 10-0 loss for the Ephs but a rally in the 10th inning and a Mike Stamas ’20 double saw Williams walk off victorious. Mid-week left some to be desired, two losses to Skidmore and Southern Vermont. Now is the time where playoff seeding really starts to shake out so Williams will need to come into the series this weekend with some fire. For Wesleyan it is time to defend home turf. They did not participate in official NESCAC play last weekend but in their non-conference games they went 2-2. With three teams tied at 3-3 in the West going into the weekend, and Middlebury’s midweek explosion, it is very possible that the loser of this series will not be able to come back and reach the playoffs. It is do or die time in the West and it’s all about who wants it more.
Prediction: Williams wins 2 of 3
Tufts (19-5, 5-1) @ Colby (8-12, 0-6)
Tufts has been absolutely rolling lately, and it is showing in the polls as they are creeping closer and closer to returning to the top-25 as the weeks and series continue. A clean sweep of Bowdoin puts them at a 5-1 NESCAC East record, making them the #1 seed heading into the weekend. A large part of Tufts’ success is due to their hot bats. As a team they are swinging at a .326 clip and are reaching base in a little less than 50% of plate appearances. Elias Varinos ’20 is unstoppable at the plate this season, hitting .422 and a .526 OBP, 3rd and 5th ranked in the conference respectively. Tufts should have absolutely no problem taking care of a team like Colby. Unfortunately for the Mules the search for their first NESCAC win will probably not end this weekend as Tufts has the advantage over them in almost every capacity. Colby kept it close last weekend in a few games but still managed to get swept for the second straight weekend, effectively removing them from playoff contention. It is clearly still rebuilding time for the Mules who have a head coach in his first season and a young roster. While they may not have much success at all this year, especially in this series, improvement is imminent.
Prediction: Tufts sweep
POSTPONED: Midd @ Amherst (Rescheduled to May 3-4)
After losing a close series to Wesleyan last weekend, Amherst will have a chance at redemption as they will open up a 3 game series versus in-state rival Williams. All three games that the Mammoths played last weekend were close ones and unfortunately for them they found themselves on the wrong side of two of them. Dan Lombardo ’19 provided a quality start for Amherst in the final game of the series and Jake Alonzo ’20 came in and pitched a scoreless 2 ⅔ innings to earn his first save of the year and salvage a NESCAC win for the Mammoths. One of the biggest surprises for Amherst this year has been the success of freshman Daniel Qin ’22. He is hitting at a .426 clip and has an OPS over 1.150. Despite his 0-2 record, Senior Andrew Ferrero ’19 is having a solid season thus far, maintaining an ERA of 2.08 while only allowing 4 walks in his 13IP. Amherst has the opportunity to make a playoff run but they will need more pieces to the puzzle than they have now. While Williams has not officially entered NESCAC play, taking 2 non-conference games from Colby last weekend, they have been nothing but impressive in their games thus far. Their 12-1 record is due, in no small part, to the explosiveness of their offense which has been on display this spring. Senior Doug Schaffer ’19 is playing out of his mind, putting up a slash line of .571/.571/.816. He is second in the conference in hits and slugging percentage, fourth in doubles and leads the league in RBI and batting average. When a guy in on a tear like that it is tough for his teammates to not want to get in on the fun. Sophomore Erik Pappas ’21 has also been impressive, scoring 23 runs and batting .468. As a team the Ephs are hitting .343 so it is safe to conclude that hitting is in fact infectious. Although the team era for Williams is not as impressive as their average, it does not matter so much when your opponent ERA is above 8.5.
Prediction: Williams takes 2 out of 3
Hamilton (8-8, 1-2 NESCAC) @ Wesleyan
(8-9, 2-1 NESCAC)
All
@ Wesleyan
Ethan Wallis has been off to a very hot start for the Continentals
Hamilton will return from their sunny spring break in Florida to face off against Wesleyan in their second NESCAC contest of the year. In their previous contest the Continentals were able to take one game out of three from Middlebury. This was in large part to Gavin Schafer-Hood ’21, who continued to pitch great in a complete-game one run victory. When it comes to swinging the bats Hamilton has struggled more than most. Leading the pace for the Continentals is sophomore Ethan Wallis ’21 who is posting an impressive .409 batting average. He is also the lone Continental to go yard this season. Hamilton will be looking for a chance to right the ship in what will be a difficult matchup with Wesleyan. While Wesleyan’s non-conference record seemed to be less than impressive heading into NESCAC play, it didn’t seem to matter as they were able to come in and get their first series win of the new campaign. Solid pitching is what propelled the Cardinals, only allowing 7 runs in the 3 game series. Kelvin Sosa ’21 collected the win in the first game while Dan Lombardo ’19 took game two. Offensively Wesleyan’s top performer has been Andrew Kauf ’20. Kauf is batting .426 and leads the team with 20 RBIs (10 more than second place). Wesleyan seems to be an upperclassmen heavy team who knows when to get hot. They could be very dangerous this season.
Prediction: Wesleyan takes 2 out of 3
Bowdoin (0-14-1, 0-3 NESCAC) vs Colby
(6-6, 0-0 NESCAC)
Saturday
doubleheader @ Colby, Sunday @ Bowdoin
The
Colby College Mules enter this series with no previous NESCAC experience,
although they did play Williams in two non-conference matchups. Colby had what
looked to be a much improved spring break compared to last year as they are
already just one win away from matching their season total last year. Lots of
thanks is due to their much improved offense. Junior Will Wessman leads the
team in hits, doubles, runs, RBIs and home runs. They do not seem to have two
or three key starters in the rotation but rather there seem to be 7 or 8 guys
who could take the mound to start the game. Perhaps this strategy will play as
the spring break schedule has come to an end, but who’s to say? Their team ERA
is still a little high, which will hurt them in NESCAC play. Although the
transition to NESCAC play can be tough at times, Colby gets a very easy
transition in the form of Bowdoin. Not much has seemed to go right for the
Polar Bears this season. They are yet to win a game through 15 total contests.
They are batting below .215 as a team and their team ERA is near 8. I am not
really sure what their is to praise or say about this team. It has got to be
tough to watch and even tougher to participate in. I would give most teams an
automatic sweep, but given the rivalry and Colby’s problems in NESCAC play last
season, nothing is guaranteed.
Johnny Stamatis is one of the most dangerous hitters in the NESCAC this year
The Bantams are riding high right now, entering this series maintaining an 11 game win streak. This streak includes a clean sweep of Bowdoin to start their NESCAC play. Not only are they shining in NESCAC play, but in non-conference games they have some quality wins like their win over MIT. Nearly every guy up and down the lineup is hitting over .300 and it shows in their offensive production. Their 5 states that they rotate between have all been solid as well, maintaining ERAs between 2 and 4. Trinity appears to be a well-rounded team that has the talent and capabilities to go deep into the playoffs. Bates did not fare quite as well in their first NESCAC series. Tufts was able to take the first two games but the Bobcats managed to snatch the last game, which was a close one. Bates had an underwhelming preseason which does not project to a particularly exciting or prosperous conference play. While they may have individual players such as Christian Beal ’21 or Nolan Collins ’20 who can shine on their own, as a team they don’t seem to have what it takes to make it deep this year.
Williams vs. Whitman NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview
We have a powerhouse matchup in the northeast this weekend between #19 Williams Ephs and the favored #2 Whitman Blues. Although Hamilton is hosting the regional due to their favorable location relative to the rest of the teams remaining in the NCAA tournament, Whitman is undoubtedly the favorite in this regional pod. The perennial best out of the west, the Blues haven’t lost since November 24th. They avenged that loss to Pomona-Pitzer last weekend in the round of 32 and cruised on to the sweet 16. Williams is cruising in their own right too, as they head into the sweet 16 with back-to-back blowout wins in the first rounds of the tournament. The Ephs blew by Husson and Gwynedd Mercy by a combined 176-116 and find themselves back into the deep rounds of the big dance.
While Williams has had their ups and downs this season, finding their record at 22-6, significantly worse than their opponent’s 28-1, they have the talent to go all the way. They are, however, mostly an outside shooting team and undergoes their share of hot and cold streaks. Luckily, it seems that they are hitting a hot streak right at the ideal time as they shot over 50% from deep in their second round victory. James Heskett and Bobby Casey as the go-to scorers for Williams and drained a combined 51 last game and joined forces to shoot 9-17 from three-point-range. They also showed that they can scrap their way to a win on an off shooting night as they did in the first round, shooting just 7-26 from beyond the arc, yet still put up 86 points as they were efficient from the field. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Casey, Heskett, and Kyle Scadlock all in double-digits for points, each with the potential to drop 20 or more.
James Heskett could lead the Ephs back to the elite 8.
Whitman seems to always be in the final four and is surprisingly more experienced than this veteran Williams team that has had more success in the big dance in the past few years than any other NESCAC team. Their seniors have lost in the elite 8, final 4, and sweet 16 in their three years of college basketball and are hungry to make it to the finals. They have four seniors in their starting lineup, and their top scorers average 16.5 PPG, 12.4 PPG, 11.1 PPG, 11.5 PPG. They have a major deep shooting threat in Jack Stewart who has made 76 threes on the season at a 47% clip, but only have one player with more than 5 REB/G. They beat a good Pomona-Pitzer team in the second round and had all five starters score in double-digits. Guard Austin Butler, presumably playing as a ‘2’ or a ‘3’ as he is listed as a wing, had five steals in the win and shows that the Blues are skilled at forcing turnovers. This should be difficult against Casey though as he is an experienced and skilled ball handler in his own right. Whitman is shooting nearly 40% from deep on the season and looks to match up pretty evenly to Williams.
Williams X-Factor: Kyle Scadlock ‘19
I keep trying to push the idea that Scadlock is going to blossom in the postseason. He has scored in double-digits in 7/8 games and has scored over 20 twice in that month and a half span. He hasn’t been taking a huge volume of shots (4-7 and 4-6 in the last two games), but has the potential to take over the floor. Against such a balanced team like Whitman who can give the ball to any of their starters to score, balance is a much needed element for the Ephs this weekend. While C Matt Karpowicz and F Henry Feinberg have had their share of scoring heavy games, the only logical addition to the Heskett-Casey scoring duo is Scadlock. They’ll need to turn their dynamic duo into a three-headed monster to win this weekend in their opening round.
Whitman X-Factor: Jack Stewart ‘19
Stewart has had a magnificent shooting season as previously mentioned, draining 76 threes on the season. He has nearly identical shooting numbers to Heskett for the Ephs who also has made 76 three, although Stewart completed the task on 25 less shots. If Heskett or Casey start getting hot and shooting the high volume of shots that we have become accustomed to, Stewart may have to step up in order to keep the Blues on pace in scoring. If he does so, his efficiency will be do-or-die, a skill that has been unbelievable in 2019. Nobody else on the Whitman team really stands out as especially dangerous as their top scorer, Joey Hewitt, has never dropped more than 24 points in a contest this season. Balance is the name of the game for the Blues and if Williams can break away early, Whitman may struggle to keep up.
Final Thoughts:
Austin Butler is an elite dunker and this should be a fun one to watch.
The most important thing to consider in this game is season strength of schedule. Whitman has played against #11 Pomona-Pitzer, #21 Whitworth, and #16 Wooster, winning 5/6 of those games. While six games against ranked teams isn’t terrible, it’s also worth noting that those teams’ strengths of schedule were also weak. Yes, I realize that this is going really deep into who played whom, however, Whitworth had such a weak resumé that they didn’t even get an at-large bid into the tournament. Williams has been playing experienced and ranked teams all season which gives them a definite edge at this point in the tournament. With four teams from the NESCAC making the tournament, when Williams didn’t play a ranked team, it was a nice treat. The Ephs are locked and loaded and ready to return to the elite 8 this weekend and they have to tools to accomplish it if they have a good shooting night. I’m not uber-confident in Williams as they’ve shown how cold they can get, which led to losing 4/5 games before the tournament, but hopefully they’re past that phase.
We’ve got a Top-10 matchup out in Clinton, New York as the #10 Hamilton Continentals (25-4) welcome the visiting #9 Christopher Newport Captains (27-3) to Margaret Bundy Scott Field House. For the Continentals, their first game was all but a cakewalk, as a last-second layup bounced off the front end of the rim to give them a two-point win. They followed up that nailbiter with a more comfortable 11-point victory, one that featured a more consistent performance on both ends of the floor. The Captains ran through the New Jersey Athletic Conference and continued running through their first two NCAA Tournament opponents, winning both games by a combined 61 points. It’ll be a contrast of styles. They’re built like Amherst on defense, but have more weapons from the perimeter instead of all-around guard play. It’ll be a stern test for the Continentals, one that they’ll hope to pass in order to advance to the Elite Eight.
Well, the cardiac Continentals survived quite the scare in their opening round matchup with Penn State-Behrend, ultimately pulling out a 72-70 win. Hamilton trailed by as many as 11 midway through the second half before storming back to take the lead late. Kena Gilmour was sensational, racking up 26 points to go along with five boards, and Peter Hoffmann chipped in with 19 points. While the Continentals forced 17 turnovers en route to their win, they struggled to guard the perimeter. Their poor defensive performance was partially corrected in their round of 32 victory against Moravian (35.6% from the field), but they were still able to connect on 40% of their shots from deep. This time, Gilmour and Hoffmann got a big boost on the offensive end from Tim Doyle ‘19 as the senior tallied 16 points. For the second game in a row, Hamilton forced 17 turnovers; however, they committed 17 of their own. They must be more careful handling the ball against Christopher Newport, a team that’s stingy defense only allows 62 PPG and can rebound the ball.
Marcus Carter ‘19 is capable of going off at any point for the Captains
Christopher Newport is riding high into their Sweet Sixteen trip to Clinton after dispatching their previous two opponents quite easily. The #9 ranked Captains feature a squad with a solid balance on offense combined with a ferocious defensive gameplan that packs the paint and makes teams beat them with the long ball. Marcus Carter is the leading scorer for Christopher Newport (16.5 PPG, 7.2 REB/G), and guard Jason Aigner (15.5 PPG, 44.8% 3PFG) will shoot from just about anywhere on the court. In their most recent 85-59 win against Alfred, Carter went off for 26 points and Aigner sunk five threes. Adrian Beasley was a force down low, posting an impressive double-double with 16 points and 16 rebounds. Cutch Ellis also registered a double-double (11 points, 10 rebounds). This one game is a microcosm of the Captains’ offensive game plan: spread the ball around and get everyone involved, because they have plenty of guys who can score and the ball movement will tire opposing defenses quickly. CNU doesn’t force a ton of turnovers (12.6/game), but they make it extremely tough for opposing players to score; they boast an impressive defensive field goal percentage of 37.5%, including 29.6% from beyond the arc. They are relentless when crashing the glass (outrebounded Alfred 49-30) and also attack the rim frequently on offense, averaging over 20 free throw attempts per game.
Hamilton X-Factor
Michael Grassey ‘19
Kena Gilmour and Peter Hoffmann cannot handle all the scoring duties alone if Hamilton wants to advance to the Elite Eight; they need help, and I think Michael Grassey’s play will severely influence the outcome of this matchup. Grassey is the team’s third-leading scorer with 11.8 PPG, however the NCAA Tournament has not been kind to him: In the Continentals’ first round matchup against Penn State-Behrend, Grassey shot 2-9 from the field and registered a measly four points. In their most recent win over Moravian, he was slightly better (eight points) but again shot just 2-8. Grassey will need to exceed his scoring average for to stay in the tournament, as Christopher Newport’s defense seems likely to zone in on Gilmour and Hoffmann and force guys like Grassey to beat them. The senior has had a great career at Hamilton and is not ready to hang it up just yet, so I believe he’ll break out of his mini slump and put up some points.
Christopher Newport X-Factor
Jason Aigner ‘21
Hamilton has not guarded the three ball very well in their first two tournament games, allowing Penn State-Behrend and Moravian to sport a combined 43.8% from beyond the arc. In steps Jason Aigner, and as I touched on briefly earlier in the article, the sophomore is an absolute sniper from deep. He’s taken an insane 252 three pointers (over eight attempts per game) but is sporting an impressive 44.8% success rate. Aigner has connected on nine triples in Christopher Newport’s two tournament wins, and he’ll be salivating at the defensive numbers the Continentals have registered in their last two games. He’s only failed to register double digit points in one of his last sixteen games and hit at least four three-pointers in twelve of those sixteen. He doesn’t attack the rim too often, so the Continentals will have to try and run him off the three point line. Hamilton doesn’t really have anyone who can shoot as well as Aigner from deep, so their best bet is to run the sophomore off the three-point line and force him to beat you off the dribble.
Final Thoughts:
I’d love to take the Continentals here because they are a great feel-good story in the sense that sans Gilmour, the starting five is all comprised of seniors who are making one last run to avenge last year’s heartbreaking defeat in the NCAA Tournament. Gilmour is a special player, and if Hoffmann, Grassey and Doyle all sync up, they’re a very hard team to defeat. I’m concerned the Continentals will get bombarded from deep if they don’t fix their perimeter defense, but an underlying factor is Newport’s ability to bang down low and make the game a physical one. The Captains are by no means a big team (Ellis is the tallest player that plays significant minutes at 6’7’’), but they are no doubt a very physical team who is not afraid to initiate contact. What’s more, they’re a smart team who uses their physicality but doesn’t commit very many fouls. Barring an incredible performance from Gilmour, I think Hamilton’s run ends in the Sweet Sixteen at home, and the Captains advance to the Elite Eight.
Now we’re getting to the good part. The weaklings have been filtered out and only the top dogs remain. Amherst is fortunate enough to host the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds, but the committee punished them with an absolutely loaded region. According to the most recent d3hoops.com rankings, this region features teams ranked 5th, 6th, 7th, and 14thin the nation so it most certainly is the cream of the crop. The combined record of these four teams is 105-12 (.897) and their average margin of victory through the first two rounds is just less than 20 points. These are some of the most talented and well-coached teams in the land and only one team can advance to the Final Four in Fort Wayne, Indiana. This is the best that D3 basketball has to offer so get ready for an action-packed weekend at LeFrak Gymnasium.
#7 Amherst College Mammoths (25-4, beat Rosemont and #23 Rochester)
How They Got Here
Eric Sellew has played a huge part in getting the Mammoths to the Sweet 16
The Mammoths didn’t have much difficulty advancing to the Sweet 16. They obliterated Rosemont in the first round, then had a more tightly contested affair versus Rochester but led the whole way and came home with the win. On Friday everyone was hot for Amherst but they were led by Eric Sellew’s 10-point, 11-rebound double double. The Rochester game was a bit more of a battle, but a strong effort from the starting five behind Grant Robinson’s 17 points on 50% shooting propelled them to victory and potentially two more home games before the season ends. Defense has really led the way so far as the Mammoths have allowed just 120 points through their first two games – tied for the fewest of any remaining team. They’ve been thrown into a region with some teams that are capable of putting up big scores, so I guess we’re about to find out just how good their defense really is.
Who They Lose To
Normally this section would be titled “How They Lose,” but we already talked about how Amherst would lose in our preview for their first two rounds and we’re sticking to that. Instead, I’ll talk about who is the most likely candidate to take down the Mammoths in this region. That team, I believe, is the Swarthmore College Garnet. The Garnet made it all the way to the Elite Eight last season and they didn’t lose a whole lot from last year’s team. In fact, they even added dynamic freshman guard George Visconti who has been huge in their development this season. Swarthmore is getting hot at the right time, winners of their last 12 games in a row. In fact, they’ve already defeated each of the three teams that they lost to this year. They rolled through their first two NCAA Tournament games, including a 105-65 romping of no. 12 nationally ranked MIT in the second round. This region is stacked with talent but I think Swarthmore is the team to beat heading into Amherst this weekend.
The Competition
#14 Nichols College Bison (27-2, beat Middlebury and Rowan)
Marcos Echevarria is one of the most exciting players on any team left in the tournament
The Bison have been a pretty underrated team this season. They hold a 27-2 record and they cruised through the Commonwealth Coast Conference tournament – only picking up one conference loss in 18 games this season. Senior guard Marcos Echevarria is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 20.6 points per game and while posting a number of 30-point games this year. Nichols boasts a pair of 6’8” big men by the names of Jerome Cunningham and Matt Morrow who do the bulk of the rebounding work, combing for over 19 rebounds per game. The size that these two guys bring often results in a mismatch at one or multiple positions on the court, and this team is very good at exploiting those mismatches. On the defensive end, this duo helps compensate for the fact that none of the starters in the Bison backcourt are over 6 feet or 160 pounds soaking wet. This is a funky team because their starting five is made up of three guys who look like they belong on the JV team and two guys who look like they should’ve gone D1. Nichols has had their way with NESCAC opponents this year, taking down Wesleyan, Trinity, Tufts, and Middlebury on their way to the Sweet 16. So be wary, because they can and will surprise you.
#6 Swarthmore College Garnet (26-3, beat Mitchell and #12 MIT)
The Garnet are dangerous.
I’ve talked about them already so as you can see, Swarthmore is legit. They feature senior point guard Cam Wiley who’s coming off his second consecutive Centennial Conference Player of the Year award and junior forward Zac O’Dell who earned the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year award. These are two of the very best players at their respective positions and they’re complemented nicely by sophomore sharpshooter Conor Harkins who knocks down threes at a very impressive 45% clip. Coach Kosmalski has done an outstanding job since taking over as head coach and has now coached the Garnet to their most successful season in program history for the fourth year in a row. Swarthmore just keeps on getting better and better so I think this could be the year they make a deeper run into the tournament.
#5 Randolph-Macon College Yellow Jackets (27-3, beat Morrisville St. and York)
Buzz Anthony is hoping for a few more opportunities to drop dimes this year
The Yellow Jackets actually fell to Guilford in the Old Dominion Athletic Conference championship game, but received an at-large bid to the tournament and have looked dominant thus far. Sophomore Buzz Anthony is the guy for Randolph-Macon, as he won the conference’s Player of the Year award averaging 15.8 points and 5.7 assists per game – the latter of which is good for 21stin the nation. Jon Nowell and Grayson Midulla take on the bulk of the rebounding work, although the tallest player on the team is actually senior Luke Neeley. This guy is an absolute weapon from beyond the arc and he also stands at 6’8”, making his shot nearly unblockable. Oh, and did I mention he’s also left-handed? Neeley is a real threat for this team and he isn’t even one of their top three scoring options. Randolph-Macon is a bit of an unknown to those of us in New England, but they’re capable of doing some damage in this region just as much as anyone.
#7 Amherst (23-4, 7-3, Defeated Hamilton to Win NESCAC Championship)
Prior to the NESCAC Tournament, Amherst was in a very good position to snag a spot in the Big Dance. Their résumé included a 20-4 overall record, with a season sweep of Williams along with win at Middlebury. Instead of leaving it up to the committee, however, the Mammoths pulled off three straight, eventually defeating Hamilton en route to their 8th NESCAC Championship. They’re headed back to the NCAA Tournament after missing out for the first time since 2010 last season, and look poised to make a deep run.
The Mammoths went on a tear to end the regular season, winning nine of their past ten games. They finished ranked #7 in D3 polls, the highest ranking among NESCAC teams. Given its recent historical success in the NCAA tournament (19 appearances, 4 Final Fours, 2 National Championships all within the last 25 years), to not make the postseason tournament last season was a disappointment to say the least. With such a deep and talented squad that’s peaking at the right time, Amherst is ready to make a deep run in March.
How They Got Here:
On paper, Amherst did not have the most talented team in the NESCAC, nor would many have thought they would win a NESCAC Championship this season. They lost their top two scorers in Mike Riopel ‘18 (12.7 PPG) and Johnny McCarthy ‘18 (11.9 PPG), and while Grant Robinson ‘21 and Fru Che ‘21 averaged a combined 17 PPG as freshman, it was a tall task to ask these two to lead the Mammoths back to the postseason. Well, the duo exploded onto the scene in the 2018-2019 season, with Robinson in particular taking the bull by the horns, averaging 17.8 PPG and 5.5 REB/G and putting his name into consideration for NESCAC Player of the Year. Amherst’s offense was much better once conference play kick-started, as they had the second-highest field goal percentage in conference play along with the most rebounds per game and offensive rebounds per game. Robinson and Che (12.3 PPG, including 17.3 PPG in his last six games), were two of nine members who logged at least 10 minutes per game, and six of those nine averaged at least 8.0 PPG. But for all the improvements on the offensive side, it’s the defense that paved the way for Amherst to become NESCAC Champions. They were the league’s second-best defense in points per game allowed, suffocated opponents by allowing a league-best 40% field goal percentage, and had by far the best rebounding margin (+9.9 per game) in the NESCAC. They say defense wins championships, and if the Mammoths carry their high caliber defense into the postseason, they will most certainly be a tough out for even the most offensively savvy squads.
How They Lose:
More often than not, Amherst gets into trouble when the games they play become high-scoring affairs. Two of their three losses in league play came when Colby and Hamilton scored over 80 points, and Amherst does not have enough consistency on offense to get into shootouts. I’d liken them to a Virginia-esque squad in the sense that they have players who can take over a game and put up points, but they have much more success when the defense grinds down opponents and they slow the pace of the game to their liking. Another thing those two losses had in common was both Colby and Hamilton shot plenty of free throws; Colby attempted a ridiculous 41 free throws (converting 33), while Hamilton made 17 of their 21 free throw attempts. Because it is so hard to repeatedly convert shots against Amherst’s defense, the best bet for opposing teams is to take the ball to the rack and get to the line as often as possible. Amherst is also a poor three point shooting team (31.6%) and does not generate a ton of assists (just 13.4 assists per game) so opposing defenses should look to pack the paint and force the Mammoths to beat them from beyond the arc.
The Ravens won the Colonial States Athletic Conference for the first time in program history, defeating #1 seed Cairn and earning an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. It’s Rosemont’s first NCAA Tournament appearance, but similar to Amherst, the Ravens got hot late and are currently on an eight-game winning streak. This squad brings a dangerous plethora of offensive weapons (even with the loss of Basil Thompson ‘19 (16.1 PPG) early in the season due to unknown reasons) to test Amherst’s resilient defense; three Ravens average double figures, led by Keith Blassingale ‘20 (19.1 PPG), who averaged a ridiculous 31.4 points per game in his last five contests including a 45 point performance in Rosemont’s 113-79 semi-final victory over Wilson College. 6’6’’ forward Jaylen Myers ‘19 is an excellent scoring option as well, nearly averaging a double-double with 15.6 PPG and 9.6 REB/G. The Ravens like to get out and score, averaging 82.0 PPG, shoot close to 47% from the field, and are excellent free throw shooters at 75.4%. The ability to score plus the great free throw shooting numbers point directly to a potential upset, however the Ravens play in a much weaker basketball conference than the NESCAC where defense seems optional (none of the teams in the conference allow less than 77 PPG). They also struggle to rebound the ball, something Amherst does exceptionally well. It’s possible Blassingale and Rosemont come out hot and give the Mammoths a scare, but Amherst should be able to settle in and take care of the Ravens.
University of Rochester Yellow Jackets (20-4, 12-4, finished second in Conference)
The runners up in the University Athletic Association Conference and #23 in the D3 polls snagged one of the 21 at large bids handed out by the NCAA Tournament committee. The UAA doesn’t have a postseason tournament, but Rochester lost to Emory on the final day of the regular season in what was a de-facto Championship game. Like Amherst, the Yellow Jackets are a very good defensive team; the allow just 66.4 points per game and force opponents to shoot just 40.8% from the field. On offense, they are led by the UAA Player of the Year in senior guard Ryan Clamage ‘19 (16.2 PPG, 6.6 REB/G), and Jacob Wittig ‘19 chips in with 10.6 PPG and neary five AST/G. They’re a much similar team to Amherst in respect to their defensive strength and uncertainty on offense, but head-to-head the Mammoths have the stronger offensive unit from top to bottom. They key will be limiting Clamage and keeping the Yellow Jackets out of the paint as they get most of their offensive from inside the arc in addition to their solid free throw percentage (73.3%).
Farmingdale State Rams (20-7, 16-4, Conference Champions)
Farmingdale State earned an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament via winning the Skyline Conference. The Rams were the number one seed headed into the tournament with an impressive 16-4 record in conference play, and have won ten consecutive games. This is a unit similar to Rosemont where they have the ability to put points on the board (85.2 PPG), but possess an average defense, allowing 75.2 PPG. Surprisingly, the Rams only shoot 45.7% as a team but hold opponents to just 41% from the field, which doesn’t quite correlate to their strong offensive numbers and average defensive numbers. Where they get into trouble on the defensive side is when they continuously foul opponents and send them to the free throw line, which happens quite often. Farmingdale State is lead by a trio of seniors in Matthew Graham ‘19 (15.9 PPG), George Riefenstahl ‘19 (14.4 PPG, 11.0 REB/G) and Ali Mableton ‘19 (12.0 PPG, 3.2 AST/G, 1.7 STL/G). Junior Ryan Kennedy ‘20 is lethal from deep, connecting at a 40.6% clip. Just like Rosemont and Rochester, Farmingdale State is a very good free throw shooting team, hitting over 76% of their shots from the line. If they end up meeting in the round of 32, Amherst will have to force the Rams to beat them with long two’s and limit the amount of free throws in order to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
#10 Hamilton (23-4, 7-3, Lost to #7 Amherst in
NESCAC Finals)
The Continentals have been a clear cut choice
to make the tourney since before week 1. With a preseason ranking of #9,
Hamilton has maintained their top-25 status throughout the season. This alone
ensured them entry into this year’s NCAA regionals. They have performed so
well, in fact, that they have earned themselves hosting rights for the first
two regional games.
Kena Gilmour is the best in the ‘CAC, but can he be the best in the dance?
How
They Got Here:
Hamilton was fairly even keel all year long.
They were poised for not only a NESCAC playoff run but an NCAA playoff run as
well, and now they are presented with that opportunity. Hamilton was
consistently successful all year long, all four of their losses coming to
NESCAC teams. They started their season running, winning their first 13
straight contests. Leading the scoring for the Continentals during this time
was Kena Gilmour. Gilmour was the leading scorer for Hamilton all year long and
helped to create a dynamic offense which helped them to such a good season.
After their hot start to the season, things got a little bit more shaky as they
lost two of their next five to Colby and Wesleyan. The Colby loss was seemingly
out of nowhere and was their first home loss of the year. After these two
losses the Continentals continued to roll, only losing once more to Middlebury,
garnering them the #2 seed in NESCAC play. After beating Colby in their
quarterfinal rematch, Hamilton had to opportunity to host the remainder of the
NESCAC playoff games after #1-seed Middlebury lost to #8-seed Tufts. Hamilton
was able to hold off Tufts, 89-85, in the semi-finals but would then have to
take on Amherst. The NESCAC championship was a close contest, but the Mammoths
were able to hold off Hamilton until the final buzzer, but hey, nothing wrong
with silver.
How
They Lose:
One thing is consistent in each of Hamilton’s
4 losses this season, their 3-point shooting. On the season, the Continentals
are shooting an impressive 35% from downtown as a team. When looking more
closely at each of their 4 losses, we can see that these games do not stack up
to those stats. In the NESCAC Final against Amherst, Hamilton put up 19 3s and
was only able to convert 3 of them, shooting at a 15.8% clip. In their
neck-and-neck battle with Midd at the end of the year where they lost by just
one point, Hamilton was just 6 for 21 from downtown. Against Colby they were
4-16 and against Wesleyan they were 6-26. Point being that when Hamilton
doesn’t shoot as they can, they put themselves in a much more difficult
position. If Hamilton is able to keep up the shooting numbers that they have
been putting up all year, they could make a serious run. If they have another
3-19 streak, it could be an early exit.
Peter Hoffmann had a fantastic career
The
Competition
Penn
State – Behrend (23-4, 14-4, AMCC Conference Champs)
Penn State – Behrend comes in with an
impressive record at the end of the season. The Lions were the #2 seed in The
Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference but were able to take down #1 La Roche
in their conference championship. Very similarly to Hamilton, Penn State’s only
losses have come from within their own conference. They have 3 All-Conference
players on their roster: Andy Niland and Mike Fischer both earned First Team
selections while Justin Gorney was selected to the second team. Niland is the
best shooter on the Lions, shooting nearly 43% from downtown and 93% at the
line so far this season. He is also the team leader, and all-time program
leader, in assists with just over 6 per game. Similarly, he only needs 7 more
3-pointers to become the all-time program leader in 3-pointers made. Against bad
teams Penn State – Behrend has shown that they are a lockdown defensive team,
at times winning by a 30 or 40 point margin. Hamilton should certainly have the
advantage in this game, but i wouldn’t sleep on the Lions.
Andy Niland poses a real shooting threat this weekend.
Keene
State (20-7, 13-3, Won LEC)
Keene State enters this competition riding a
12-game win streak. They easily defeated Western Connecticut State by a 27
point margin in the LEC semifinals to advance them to a championship game
against none other than Eastern Connecticut State. This was a much closer
competition as Keene State was down by 1 at the half but managed to pull out a
72-69 victory to capture the conference title. Some NESCAC fans should be
familiar with Keene State already as they have had 2 NESCAC opponents in their
schedule, including Hamilton. Early in the season Keene State went to
Middlebury and took a tough 93-88 loss. Keene State’s Ty Nichols was fantastic
for them against Midd, putting up 26/14/7 for a monstrous near triple-double.
Although his performance was noteworthy, it was still not enough to take down
the Panthers. Their game at Hamilton was close as well, an 85-80 loss in which
Ty Nichols once again lead Keene State in points. We’re beginning to see a
theme here, and its name is Ty Nichols. Nichols lead Keene State in points,
assists and rebounds, posting up a 27/5/7 clip on average. The Senior from
Springfield, Mass is the heart and soul of this team and was recently named D3
Player of the Week as well as Player of the Year in the Little East Conference.
The kid is a force to be reckoned with and has the talent to take this mediocre
Keene State team much further than they should go.
Moravian
(19-8, 10-4, Landmark Champions)
Rounding out our competitors we have our third
conference champ in Moravian. Moravian defeated Susquehanna in their conference
semis and then took down Drew in the finals to earn themselves a spot in the
NCAA playoffs. NESCAC fans got a chance to look at Moravian earlier this year
when they took on formerly #2 Williams. Moravian attempted a second-half
comeback in this contest but it was not quite enough as the Ephs won 81-72. The
leading scorer for Moravian in this contest was CJ Barnes who came off the
bench to put up 21PTS, including 4 triples. Lots of triples seems to be another
theme for Moravian. While their opponents have attempted 404 3-pointers against
Moravian, Moravian have more than doubled that by putting up 832 3-pointers
over their 27 games, that’s nearly 31 3s a game. While CJ Barnes is Moravian’s
best shooter, their best player is O’Neil Holder, who is leading the team in
PPG with 18.4 and rebounds with 6.6. Moravian is a clear-cut 3 and D team and
those can always be dangerous in a tournament setting. Catch them at the wrong
time and you could be going home early.
