It was quite the weekend for the Mammoths as they knocked off two of the top NESCAC teams, both victories on the road (84-79 W @ Williams; 97-93 W @ Midd). Despite uncertainty regarding their depth entering the season, they have proved to be the most consistent team in the conference in 2019 and control their own destiny to lock up the #1 seed in the NESCAC tournament. Grant Robinson and Fru Che combined for 68 points over their last two games and are constantly on the floor, playing nearly every minute, never giving their opponents a break from their attack. If they beat Hamilton this weekend, again on the road, they will be the favorites entering the postseason and will be a top national seed in the NCAA tournament. Their drive back to campus after their win at Midd must’ve been a fun one.
Middlebury Guards
Despite a key loss to Amherst last Saturday that could’ve locked up the #1 seed for the Panthers, they still had a solid weekend with their last minute comeback win against Hamilton. This young Midd team knocked off the experienced and deep Continental team (with a pretty weak home crowd) much to my surprise. Jack Farrell and Max Bosco, both starting as sophomores, are legit DIII players and will give any team in the country a run for their money. Max Bosco made a deep, contested three in the final seconds of the game to give Midd the lead and had an impressive, quick release on the shot. Jack Farrell out dribbles opponents and is too quick to defend and is starting to find his shooting groove. They also have fellow sophomore Griffin Kornaker as the sixth man coming off of the bench to give them a hand. This stock up is about the guards, but they aren’t even the best players on the floor for the Panthers. Watch out for this team in the tournament.
Max Bosco made a good move by choosing a college in the North Pole because he has ice in his veins.
Stock Down
Eph Dominance
The reign of terror of Williams is over. I don’t even care if they win the NESCAC and NCAA tournament, an 0-2 weekend for a team with this talent is inexcusable. They really struggled against Hamilton without James Heskett who was out due to an ankle sprain but even lost two in a row to Bowdoin and Amherst with him on the floor. Williams’ losing streak is now at three games and this cold streak couldn’t be coming at a worse time. Bobby Casey is just 13-52 from deep in his last five games, good for just 25% of his massive amount of shots. The Ephs went with an unusual and big starting lineup against Hamilton on senior day, with Marcos Soto, Jake Porath, and Michael Kempton all on the floor to begin the game. It definitely hurt them to not have Henry Feinberg and Matt Karpowicz on the floor for more minutes and Kyle Scadlock was basically a non-factor in the offense. It will be fascinating to see how these preseason favorites fare in the NESCAC tournament as they might have an early exit if they play like they have the last two weeks.
Kyle Scadlock is a hugely underutilized weapon in the Ephs’ offense.
Cardinal Depth
Wesleyan is now tied for the best team in Connecticut with Trinity as both are now a surprising 6-4 in NESCAC play. Trinity has been playing much better than expected and better than they were at the beginning of the season, while Wesleyan has struggled, especially last weekend against Colby. This upset win for the Mules revealed a weakness in depth off the bench as just six players managed to score points in the contest. While Austin Hutcherson and Antone Walker had monster games, combining for 47 points, the bench shot just 4-9 as a group. They simply didn’t put up enough shots to give themselves a chance to win against a deep-ball shooting Mule team. The Mules put up 15 more threes than Wesleyan and had a 27 point advantage on such shots. Colby is likely the only team to gain such an advantage on perimeter shooting, but if Williams’ Bobby Casey gets hot, the Ephs could also take over a game in a similar way. For the Cardinals to beat a team like Colby on a hot shooting night, they will need to better distribute their scoring.
Bowdoin/Conn/Bates
The bottom three are set for the 2019 season. It’s too bad that Bowdoin finds themselves on the outside looking in as they really could’ve given teams a challenge in the playoffs, but a crucial loss to Tufts doomed them despite a win over Williams. We will see these teams again in 2020…
Matt Karpowicz ’20 is one of the many Ephs who will help pave the way for a deep tournament run
To be honest, this isn’t a particularly bold prediction. The Ephs are #2 in the nation and they have looked nearly unstoppable to this point in the season. Their average margin of victory is 26 and only 2 of their games have been decided by less than 10 points. What makes them so tough to stop is the fact that they have so many different guys that can beat you on a given night. If you try to play a zone then Bobby Casey ’19 and James Heskett ’19 will light you up from beyond the arc. If you don’t have a true big man then Matt Karpowicz ’20 and Michael Kempton ’20 will wreck you in the paint. If you don’t have at least one standout wing capable of playing defense at a high level then Kyle Scadlock ’19 is going score at will. These guys are as good as it gets at the D3 level and you can see it as soon as they step on the court – the average height of their starting lineup is 6’6” and not one of them is below 6’3”. Williams has made runs deep into the tournament in recent years, but this time they’ll come back with some hardware. Barring injury, the Williams College Ephs will be your 2019 NCAA Division III Basketball National Champions.
2. Hamilton wins the NESCAC championship
Kena Gilmour ’20 is one of the biggest stars that the NESCAC has to offer
Well, if anyone is going to take down the Ephs (at least before the NCAA Tournament) then there’s no doubt that the #5 team in the country has the best chance. The average height of their starters is 6’5”, so they’re really the only team that has the size to reasonably matchup with Williams. They’ve got a bona fide star in Kena Gilmour ’20, an array of athletic wings who can shoot the ball and have the athleticism to defend multiple positions, and a big man in Andrew Groll ’19 who anchors the team down low. They, too, have blown teams out of the water, with only 2 games within 10 points and an average margin of victory of 21. They shoot the ball at an astonishingly high rate (51.3% FG) and turn the ball over less than almost anyone. Essentially the only question that I have about them is whether or not their defense will be able to compete in a game when the shots simply aren’t falling. Like most NESCAC teams they haven’t played a very tough schedule so they’ve had their way with opposing defenses, but there will come a game when they just aren’t getting the bounces. I’m not sure that their defense is good enough to win a grind-it-out type game like this, which is also why I don’t see them being able to make a run in the NCAAs. What we do know is that their offense is as good as anyone in the nation, so I think they will get hot enough in a three game stretch to win the NESCAC title.
3. Bowdoin finishes third in the NESCAC
David Reynolds ’20 will have to keep producing at the same rate for Bowdoin to stay in contention
There’s no doubt that Williams and Hamilton are the top 2 teams in the conference, so the question seems to be who will finish 3rd. Things are much murkier in the middle, but I like what’s been going on in Brunswick so far this season. After a slow 2-3 start the Polar Bears have really found their identity, winners of their last 6 contests. The duo of Jack Simonds ’19 and David Reynolds ’20 is one of the most lethal scoring combinations in the league, with each of them averaging over 17 points per game. Zavier Rucker ’21 is one of the steadiest point guards out there, and he also adds a very viable third scoring option. His range certainly raises some questions as he’s only shooting 27.3% from 3-point land. Teams will definitely start to play off him a bit and respect his quickness, forcing him to shoot from farther out. He’ll have to get better from the outside to draw some of the attention away from Reynolds and Simonds. Hugh O’Neil ’19 is another elite big man who currently leads the league in field goal percentage (67.2%) while also coming in at 2ndin the league in rebounding (10.6 per game). This type of efficiency is exactly what Bowdoin is looking for out of their senior captain. What especially stands out about the Polar Bears is their strong upperclassman leadership. Aside from Rucker their main rotation of guys consists only of juniors and seniors, and this will go a very long way in a conference that is seeing a lot more asked of some of the younger players. Bowdoin has an excellent opportunity to make a leap into the top half of the NESCAC this season, and it all starts with the guys who have been there time and time again.
4. Colby leads NESCAC in scoring
Noah Tyson ’22 is potentially the most talented player on the Colby roster, and he’s only a freshman
This is another prediction that doesn’t appear to be very unreasonable given what we’ve seen so far – the Mules are 2nd to only Hamilton in points per game – but Colby has struggled mightily in recent years, including last year’s 10th place finish. What they have going for them this year is a very balanced scoring attack where all 5 starters average double figures in scoring. They attempt an incredible amount of 3-point shots, but this fast paced style is the way that they need to play since they lack a true big man and have a height disadvantage at almost every position on the court. When the game is moving at this type of pace it also means that they’ll be allowing a lot of points, so even if they do lead the league in scoring they very well could finish in the bottom of the standings again. For the fans, however, this makes almost every Colby game must-watch basketball. We’re likely to see lots of scores in the 80s and 90s, so it’s almost always going to be worth tuning in to the action in Waterville. Win or lose, it’s shaping up to be a very exciting season for Coach Strahorn and his squad.
5. Bobby Casey wins POY
Bobby Casey ’19 has a chance to be the second consecutive Eph to bring home the POY trophy
Although I wrote that Kena Gilmour was our prediction for Player of the Year in our awards preview a few weeks ago, it could be another southpaw that takes home the trophy at the season’s end. Teammate James Heskett ’19 earned POY honors last season, but this year it’s been Bobby Casey’s turn. The senior has been a lights out scorer this year, coming in at 5th in the league with 18.1 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field including over 45% from deep. He’s also grabbing 5.5 rebounds per game and dishing out a league-leading 4.5 assists per game. There’s no question that he benefits heavily from the fact that he’s the team’s primary ball handler and the talent that exists around him in Williams’ lineup is unparalleled. Not a lot of guys would be able to share the ball as much as he does while still getting a fair share of shots for himself. Either way, the Ephs are loaded and Casey is a star so he’ll be an interesting guy to keep an eye on as the season progresses. If they’re able to maintain the blistering start that they’re off to, you can bet that Casey will be leading the way.
This Williams team looks nearly unstoppable. They have three players averaging over 14 points per game and three averaging over five boards per game, dominating each of their nine opponents thus far. Bobby Casey has been lights out from deep, draining 47.7% of his threes, Scadlock has been electric from the floor, shooting over 60% from the field, and James Heskett has been doing his thing for the Ephs, following up his All-American season with some more balanced numbers among a more talented supporting cast with the return of Scadlock. Matt Karpowicz and Michael Kempton have been doing well all around as a big man unit, averaging a combined 14 PPG and over ten boards, equalling a dual double-double. No NESCAC team can match the size and big-game experience of this Eph team with the Continentals as the only real threat on their road to a second straight NESCAC championship.
Casey and the Ephs are not going to be a fun opponent this season.
2.) #5 Hamilton (9-0)
I’ve been a big fan of this unit that Coach Stockwell has developed for quite some time. They were set on a course for predestined greatness in this 2018-2019 season long ago when the group of Peter Hoffmann, Tim Doyle, Andrew Groll, and Michael Grassey joined forces in the 2015-2016 season. Those four along with the most athletic player in the lineup, junior Kena Gilmour, make up this team that could bring the Continentals their first major men’s sports championship in who knows how long. Gilmour and Grassey are doing most of the scoring in the perfect 9-0 start to the season, averaging 19.7 and 15.2 PPG, respectively. They are a balanced team and Gilmour, Grassey, and Groll all haul in over five boards per game. Their trusty point guard, Doyle, dishes out passes to the rest of the shooters and is the glue that keeps the gears turning and rounds out the deadly group that is, top to bottom, without any glaring weaknesses.
Gilmour’s Continentals are the biggest threat to the Ephs in 2019.
3.) Amherst (7-1)
This is a bit of a surprise for me as I figured that after losing some studs, the Mammoths would enter more of a rebuilding year. Their only loss so far was to the 2017 national champion Babson Beavers and they received votes in the last D3 Hoops rankings. Their big man, Joe Schneider, is their only senior, boding well for the future of this historically dominant program. Grant Robinson is leading the way on the scoring front with 15.8 PPG with Eric Sellew putting in 9.6 PPG, and sixth man-to-be and deep threat off the bench, Garrett Day, dropping 9.3 PPG in just 17.3 minutes per game. Five Mammoths average over four rebounds per game and while Robinson is the closest they have to a superstar, they are a deep team with many possible contributors and several wild card players who entered into new roles at the start of this season.
4.) #24 Middlebury (8-2)
This is an unusual year for the Panthers as they are without a true leader on the court like they have had the past few years. Matt Folger is the most talented player on the floor for Midd and has been off to a hot start, putting up 16.0 PPG, shooting over 50% from the field and over 47% from deep which is going to need to be sustainable for the Panthers to have a shot to compete with Bobby Casey and the Ephs. My biggest concern for the Panthers this season was at the guard position as they lost Jack Daly and had a big scoring, passing, and rebounding hole to fill. Jack Farrell, Max Bosco, and Griffin Kornaker have all contributed surprisingly well so far this year, making up the next wave of elite Panther guards. Farrell is averaging 15.8 PPG, 4.9 REB/G, and 4.3 A/G while Bosco is scoring 13.8 PPG in 21 minutes per game off the bench. Kornaker is more of a distributor, averaging 4 A/G and spreads the floor well between Folger, Hilal Dahleh, and Eric McCord down low. While Folger hauls in boards in his own right, raking in 9.5 per game to nearly total an average of a double-double for himself. McCord and freshman forward Alex Sobel are the defensive specialists, grabbing 10.8 and 5.4 REB/G, respectively. The guards are going to need to continue to play lights out for the Panthers with Folger leading the way for Midd to compete in the postseason. Their early season conference match ups should provide a good indication of how this rather unpredictable teams competes against better competition.
5.) Wesleyan (7-3)
Contrary to Andrew’s (unsurprisingly) favorable preview for the Cardinals entering this season, this team has proven to be human in the early going despite their notable athleticism. They played a non-conference game against Williams and lost by 15—not such a bad result considering the prowess of the second-ranked Eph team. It actually was a poorly played game by the Cardinals, boding even better for their future games against the NESCAC’s top foes as they shot just 25% from beyond the arc. They also hauled in just 28 boards which was likely the main issue—allowing Williams to dominate on defense. Jordan Bonner, Austin Hutcherson, and Antone Walker are the big time scorers for this Wesleyan team, all averaging at least 14 PPG and represent a dangerous trio of shooters. This young team may be a bit inconsistent at times with Bonner as the only senior on the roster, but they should have a shot in some games that they are not favored in due to their athleticism and potential to score.
6.) Colby (8-2)
This young Mule team is coming out of nowhere to intimidate the other NESCAC competition in the 2018-2019 preseason. While I didn’t really expect them to compete without any seniors on the roster, they are quietly putting together wins with five players averaging double digit point in the early going. Matt Hanna (14.1 PPG, 5.7 REB/G, 3.5 A/G), Sam Jefferson (16.6 PPG, 4.0 REB/G, 40.3% 3-PT), Wallace Tucker (11.1 PPG, 3.7 REB/G, 2.0 A/G), Noah Tyson (11.8 PPG, 8.6 REB/G, 2.6 A/G), and Ronan Schwarz (11.9 PPG, 4.9 REB/G, 58.2% FG) round out a well-balanced, and deep starting five for the Mules. While it’s hard to determine the quality of their opponents, they knocked off Bowdoin pretty easily 83-70 and Bates 86-69.
7.) Trinity (7-3)
Trinity is a team much like Colby in that they lack a superstar or one player really performing above the rest of the team. Four of five starters (Kyle Padmore, Donald Jorden, Christian Porydzy, and Nick Seretta) average 10 PPG while Connor Merinder adds 8.3 PPG. Jordan and Merinder each haul in 8.1 and 6.4 REB/G, respectively and are the best rim defenders on the team. They lost to pretty badly 84-67 to 16th ranked Nichols but lost by less than five points in their other two hiccups thus far. This team still has a lot to figure out after losing key players last season, much like Middlebury and Amherst, but they seem to have a deep enough lineup so far to be dangerous and a match for many NESCAC foes.
8.) Bowdoin (6-3)
Despite a below average 6-3 record entering the break, including a loss to rival Colby College, the Polar Bears are boasting a modest four game win streak after staring the season just 2-3. While it often takes some time for younger teams to get going, I didn’t expect to see this from the rather experienced Bowdoin team. Jack Simonds, Jack Bors, Hugh O’Neil, and David Reynolds who represent a similar level of experience to the Hamilton team. In fact, I’d even go to say that similar to Hamilton, this is the year of hope and destiny for the Bowdoin team too. If there was ever a year for them to make a run at the whole thing, this is it. Now I’m by no means saying they’re as talented as Hamilton or Williams, but David Reynolds and Jack Simonds both have POY potential, making a run at the league’s scoring title, and Hugh O’Neil has DPOY potential, bringing down rebounds with the best of them for his entire career. They fall all the way down here to eighth on these first power rankings of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get hot and make a run and host a first round playoff game.
Simonds, Bors, and O’Neil represent a NESCAC ‘Big 3’ that could challenge any team on any day.
9.) Tufts (4-5)
Nobody lost more key players than Tufts did at the end of 2018. They lost starters Thomas Lapham, Everett Dayton, and, most importantly, Vinny Pace, leaving them with just Miles Bowser and team leader Eric Savage remaining. Savage, however, is the only Jumbo left in the starting lineup from last season as Bowser is no longer on the roster. Tyler Aronson and Carson Cohen are two of the new starters and are freshmen looking to make a quick impact at the college level. Both highly decorated high school players, Aronson and Cohen should improve as the season goes along but likely, as seen in their early record, will be overmatched by against some better teams and will experience up-and-down shooting nights. Rounding out the starting five are sophomores Justin Kouyoumdjian (that is a mouth full), Brennan Morris, and Luke Rogers. Savage has been a bit banged up thus far, leaving room for Cohen to make an early impact, but expect Cohen to come off the bench in games that Savage plays in. Arguably their best game of the season was in a loss to #7 MIT that went to OT early in the season. While the Jumbos might be the last ‘good’ team in these power rankings, they still have the talent to knock off any team on any day, speaking to the depth of the NESCAC.
10.) Conn College (3-5)
And then there were two. Conn and Bates seem to be far below the rest of the NESCAC competition thus far. I hope they prove me wrong, but each program is in different places and will struggle for different reasons throughout the spring. For Conn, they have their star player, David Labossiere, leading the way but they lack a solid supporting cast to propel them into the fire of the NESCAC competition. Dan Draffan is another great player for the Camels, but Jack Zimmerman, Phil Leotsakos, and Ryan Omslaer need to step up their game for Conn to work to sneak into the playoffs. With that said, however, Labossiere could make a run for the NESCAC scoring title and could take over any game as he is shooting 40% from deep and averaging nearly 20 PPG so far. Draffan scores over 16 PPG and hauls in nearly 10 boards per game and if they can figure out how to score, this team could upset better NESCAC teams on their off nights.
11.) Bates (2-7)
Bates had an underwhelming but not abysmal 2017-2018 season, but lost one of their starters in Guards Shawn Strickland. They went into the holiday break with five straight losses, two to NESCAC teams (Colby and Bowdoin) which I think clearly makes them the worst team in Maine so far. They shoot from beyond the arc at just 27.8%, make under 60% of their free throws, and only have two players in Jeff Spellman and Nick Lynch scoring in the double digits per game. Lynch and Spellman are also the only Bobcats averaging over six boards per game and it looks as if, unless there is going to be a dramatic shift in the new year, this may be a long season for Bates. Tom Coyne should return after the break in time for NESCAC play, and while it’s been rough so far, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bates make the playoffs and slowly climb up the rankings into the top eight.
2017-2018 Record: 23-6 (7-3 NESCAC), Won NESCAC Championship, Lost in NCAA Second Round
2018-2019 Projected Record: 22-2 Regular Season (9-1 NESCAC), Win NESCAC Championship, Lose in NCAA Final Four
Key Losses:
G Mike Greenman ’18 (7.9 PPG, 2.0 REB/G, 3.1 A/G)
Greenman was a big hustle guy for the Ephs throughout his career. He was banged up and bounced in and out of the starting lineup due to injury last season but ultimately ran the court with Bobby Casey and was a key part of the fast paced offense that Williams runs. He is replaceable but his leadership will certainly be missed this season.
G Cole Teal ’18 (7.8 PPG, 4.6 REB/G, 2.0 A/G)
Teal was a solid shooter from mid-range throughout his career and was a key part of Williams’ depth. His efficiency from beyond the arc should be a point that the Ephs can improve on as he barely eclipsed 25% last season. He played their ‘3’ position on the floor but was undersized and this year’s Williams team will likely we much tougher to defend.
Casey is going to bring the ball up for the Ephs this season, much like he has done the past three seasons. He is the best shooter on the Eph team and should continue to drain threes all season long like he did 3.1 times per game last season. He is a scrappy guard with good ball handling skills and should see an increase in his assist numbers this year with all the big men surrounding him. He could actually see an uptick in the amount of threes he takes per game with no need to penetrate to the rim with Scadlock back in the lineup.
G/F: Henry Feinberg ‘20 (3.7 PPG, 2.4 REB/G, 41.6% FG)
Henry Feinberg ’20
Feinberg is a bit of a wildcard for the Ephs this season. He had a productive sophomore season starting when Greenman was out and coming off the bench as more of a defensive specialist for the rest of the season. He usually plays on the wings, but because of the size that Williams is likely to go with in their starting lineup, he will likely have more ball handling duties than he did in the past. He will be an oversized player at 6’5” compared to what most other NESCAC teams will put out on the court which gives the Ephs another advantage. He is a better outside and mid-range shooter than he is from around the rim and will compliment Heskett’s shooting ability well.
The 2018 NESCAC POY and D3 All-American is back for more in his senior season. He is a mean, long sharp shooting machine with a skill set like Klay Thompson. He is nearly impossible to defend from the outside as no other shooters have his length at 6’8” and accuracy. He isn’t quite the defensive monster you would expect, but quite frankly, Williams really doesn’t need him to grab boards as they have two other more defensive oriented players on the floor at any given time. Look for him to have another incredible season.
F: Kyle Scadlock ’19 (18.0 PPG, 8.6 REB/G, 2.3 A/G, Missed 22 games due to injury)
Kyle Scadlock ’19
The redshirt junior is back to prove that he is the real star of this team after missing almost all of last season with a torn ACL. Scadlock is undoubtedly the most athletic player on this Williams team and is the most exciting player to watch in nearly every contest. His length and athleticism are nearly unmatched among NESCAC opponents and his play around the rim and constant threat to dunk is difficult to defend. The 6’7” forward played in seven contests before going down with injury last season, averaging 18.0 PPG and 8.6 REB/G. He really looked like a candidate for player of the year before he got hurt and absolutely dominated in the playoffs when Williams made their run to the final four during his sophomore season. This lineup is starting to look scary now that he’s back in it.
C: Matt Karpowicz ’20 (9.0 PPG, 5.3 REB/G, 65.2% FG)
Matt Karpowicz ’20
While Karp is the starter, Williams splits time between two big men most of the time. Michael Kempton ‘19 started most of the games here last year, but Karp has been starting so far in Williams’ first three games and has had better numbers per minutes played throughout his career. They bring in nearly a double-double combined per game and are some of the biggest bodies in the league. At 6’8” for Karp and 6’10” for Kempton, it will be tough to out rebound these guys. They are both well over 50% from the field and the Ephs will use that accuracy and their other outside shooting efficiency to dominate their opponents this season.
Everything Else
This is an intimidating roster to face. The Ephs are currently ranked #8 in the country, just ahead of Hamilton, but look to be nearly unstoppable on paper. Their average height in the starting lineup is over 6’6” which is undoubtedly the tallest in the NESCAC and probably one of the tallest in division III basketball. They are not just big though as several of their big time defenders can also play well offensively on the perimeter and as a result every range from inside the key to mid-range to beyond the arc is covered by a lethal shooter. They shouldn’t skip a beat with the departure of Greenman and Teal as Casey is fully capable of running the floor as he has been doing and simply dishing it out to the other guys down low or taking the deep shots himself.
I’d say that his team is undeniably the favorite to win the NESCAC, so the ball is in their court. Their most obvious competition is the Continentals who return all of their starters for the second year in a row and also have several athletic forwards. This team will really go over the edge talent wise if some of their younger guards can make an impact and rotate in to replace Feinberg when additional outside shooting is needed, potentially late in games. Spencer Spivy could be one of these guards to make an impact as he went 3-5 3-PT and 4-6 overall against MCLA on Tuesday. He’s also 6’5” so when he’s in their lineup really won’t shrink at all. Williams has won by an average of 42 points per game so far. Watch out, these guys know how to dance.
Dynastic Control: The Bantams have won again and as their parents pointed out after we predicted them to be 6-3 in our season preview article, they really don’t lose often. Not only are they on the up and up, getting better year to year relative to the rest of the NESCAC competition, but even their holes, which we thought would be at QB this year, are ridiculously easily filled. They have had not one but two elite QBs under center this year in Jordan Vazzano and Seamus Lambert and clearly will have the reigns on the NESCAC for the near future. The other contenders of Amherst and Tufts were no match in their head to head with Trinity and Williams, who kind of seems to own the Bantams, cannot reach any level of consistency to bring the title home to Williamstown.
Ellie Greenberg after scoring the winner in the NESCAC championship.
Predictive Power: I am giving credit where credit is due today. Matt Karpowicz hit the nail on the head with his game preview of Amherst at Trinity last weekend. Max Chipouras blitzed the Amherst defense and had a career game, nearly capping off his incredible run at Trinity with a clutch 203 yard, two TD performance. He averaged a nasty 8.5 yards per carry and showed that the league’s best D isn’t so unstoppable. Or maybe the Bantams are just that good. Either way, we got one right, we finally got one. Actually, we got two. Ryan Moralejo deserves a shoutout too for his prediction in the women’s soccer NESCAC championship game, calling the Midd over Williams upset, that, quite frankly, nobody saw coming. I will say I have no idea how he ever thought that the score would be 2-1 with each team having such a stellar back line, but I’ll cut him some slack. Roll Pants.
Stock Down
Eph Leadership: This week’s 21-14 loss to Wesleyan is a tough one to swallow for the Williams team as they were riding in off a recovery win against Hamilton into their senior day and final home game of the season. They played against a Cardinal team that has looked unprepared all season and couldn’t get anything done once Bobby Maimaron left the game with an injury. They got destroyed by Middlebury, who has looked different week to week, only after TJ Rothmann exited the contest. The change of play after losing their leaders is what separates this still talented team from a program like Trinity. For the Bantams, when one guy goes down another takes his place, for Williams those spaces continue to be vacant.
Jackson Bischoping has promise, but he allowed two fatal turnovers against Wesleyan.
Mule Muster: I titled last weekend’s preview article “Trap City,” and it turned out that we were right, although not regarding the game that I imagined. Wesleyan beat Williams 21-14 and Bowdoin got their first win by knocking off Bates 31-14, but I thought Colby would at least give Tufts a slight run for their money coming off two good weekends of football. I couldn’t have been more wrong about that one. The Colby team put up a real dud to say the least, falling 48-0, managing just 124 yards of total offense. Their defense was useless in this game as the Mules offense only turned the ball over one time! that means that the defense was responsible for each of the five rushing and two passing TDs allowed.
These newly crowned NESCAC champs just got one of the few things that escaped them in 2017. They are hosting the opening two rounds of the NCAA tournament in Williamstown, MA against Bridgewater State and either Ramapo or Moravian. The #8 Ephs are in control of their own fate here as a home crowd and favorable schedule could lead them right back to where they were last year; namely, the Final Four. The road hasn’t been easy, but with the guidance of Coach Kevin App and the recent return of NESCAC Player of the Week G Mike Greenman, the Ephs are in better shape than they have been the last few weeks heading into the big dance.
How They Got Here:
Williams has had their ups and downs, including F Kyle Scadlock’s torn ACL, a lengthy absence from starting G Mike Greenman, and a host of players entering and leaving the starting lineup. While they Ephs never really stumbled along the way, they certainly had doubters throughout the season. Four of their five losses came to NESCAC teams, and two were against Tufts and Amherst which is surprising given the rest of their track record. They have had some shooting streakiness as G Bobby Casey has had some ups and downs, hitting a hot streak recently while G Cole Teal may have just gotten over the hump of an ice cold streak. They also saw the emergence of a star this season in F James Heskett, who was recently named NESCAC Player of the Year. He averages 19.5 PPG, although his presence as more of a back court player with his side takes away from Williams’ rebounding chops. Their leading rebounder is C Matt Karpowicz who comes off the bench to average 5.5 REB/G. Between their core of F Heskett, G Casey, G Teal, G Greenman, and C Kempton/Karpowicz, they still have depth and are well rounded on perimeter defense, distribution, and shooting.
Matt Karpowicz ’20 has been a powerful inside presence for the Ephs, and was arguably the MVP of the championship game, putting up 14 points on 6-8 shooting.
How They Lose
While Heskett and Casey have been great all season, they have their share of streakiness which leaves Williams vulnerable. In their 69-63 loss to Tufts, their four deep shooting threats (all of their starters but the centers) went just 4-26 from beyond the arc. Even in their championship win over Wesleyan, Heskett went 1-10 from deep and the Ephs were outrebounded 47-40. These were two things that hurt them in their regular season loss to Middlebury as well. The Panthers dominated the boards and were able to lock up Heskett and Casey until the last two minutes, when the Ephs made a furious run. Had Wesleyan been just a little better offensively, Williams would have been in trouble. Great coaching, athleticism, and experience should take the Ephs over their early round opponents here, but in their worst games, these teams at their best can compete with them. They need to distribute the shooting if one of their starters hits a dry streak and they will likely find a hot hand. And, as usual, Karpowicz and Kempton have their work cut out for them on the glass.
The Competition
Bridgewater State University Bears (18-9, 9-3)
Williams’s Friday Opponent, the MASCAT champions earned an automatic bid to the big dance after playing a season free from NESCAC opponents. The Bears have three common opponents with Williams and in those games they are 6-1 against those teams. Bridgewater lost to Salem St. 88-73, an opponent that Williams beat easily 80-68. They aren’t ranked nationally or regionally and relied on their conference championship to qualify for the NCAA tournament. They don’t have too much size, with their two biggest starters listed at 6’7,” which is advantageous to a Williams team lacking the size to rebound. They are balanced overall in terms of production, with four starters averaging over 12 PPG, three averaging over 4 REB/G, and five averaging over 2 assists per contest. However, lacking any real strength of schedule, they should be overmatched by a superior Eph team.
Rayshon Ward ’20 is one of three Bridgewater St players who average over 15 PPG.
Moravian College Greyhounds (20-7, 10-4)
The Greyhounds also were recently crowned conference champions, earning the auto-bid from the Landmark conference, losing seven games along the way, but only one to a regionally ranked opponent. They played Hamilton in their preseason and lost by just four points during a dominant run from the Continentals. The fact that they competed closely with this squad shows that at their best, they would at least give Williams a run for their money. Now, six other losses to worse opponents than Williams lost to all season certainly lowers their chances of knocking off the Ephs, and the rest of their body of work is underwhelming. They shoot a respectable 37.8% from three point range, but that is the best statistic they own. They only have one player above 4 REB/G and had nine players start games this year without any injuries. This means they couldn’t exactly find the winning formula, and as a result relied on the conference championship to get to the tournament. They are a shooting team, averaging 86 PPG, and would need to be red hot all game long to run with the Ephs.
Ramapo College Roadrunners (21-6, 15-3)
The Roadrunners are ranked second in the Atlantic region and have been ranked as high as sixth nationally during the season, but find themselves currently outside of the top-25. It’s tough to see how they fell out of the national rankings on the surface, but they look much weaker given a closer look at their strength of schedule. Unlike the NESCAC, where as many as six of the teams saw national rankings throughout the season and those six were all regionally ranked, Ramapo faced just one ranked opponent all year. That game came against formerly #14 and currently unranked Ohio Wesleyan University on December 28th where the final score was 98-69 in favor of OWU. This crushing defeat surely contributed from the fall from grace for Ramapo as with just six losses, they appear to be much stronger on the surface. They have just two players averaging double digit PPG, two over 5 REB/G, and drain their threes just 32% of the time. They shouldn’t be able to keep up with a far superior Williams team and they round out what looks to be a weak regional, favoring the Ephs who have a great shot to reach the Sweet-16 for the second year in a row.
Jack Daly ‘18 has, by far, the most responsibility on his team of any player in the league. He plays around 35 minutes a game, handles the ball 90% of the time and guards the best player on the opposing team. And this responsibility only increases late in games, when every part of the offense runs through him. Of course, this makes his foul shooting incredibly important. More often than not, he is the one that teams will be fouling at the end of close games. So when he was struggling from the line, it was a HUGE problem for Middlebury. Overall, Daly is at 68% from the line, and underwent a 7-17 mess early in the season. But, as he so often does, Daly has raised his game when it counts. In league play, he is shooting 77% from the line, and single-handedly won Middlebury’s game against Trinity at the line with an amazing 18-20 showing. And as if that wasn’t impressive enough, last night he iced Keene State as well, going 8-8. Daly is the guy Middlebury will have at the line in big moments, and the way he’s shooting right now, Middlebury wouldn’t have it any other way.
Daly is dominating the league right now, and that dominance is finally extending to the foul line.
Amherst in League Play
I don’t think we’ll ever have a NESCAC season without Amherst in the mix. After looking nearly dead for much of the season, the Mammoths have roared (trumpeted?) back to life, winning three straight NESCAC games, including blowouts over Hamilton and Bowdoin. Amherst relies mostly on an excellent defense to win games; they are third in the league (behind Wesleyan and Trinity) in opponents PPG and FG%. But their offense is beginning to come around as well. Michael Riopel ‘18 is one of the deadliest three point shooters in the league, but has diversified his game nicely and is dangerous inside the arc as well. Johnny McCarthy ‘18 has had a fascinating career arc, and has reinvented himself again as a gritty paint presence and dominant rebounder. But the key to Amherst’s success (and failure early in the season) is their supporting cast. When Amherst wins, it is because guys like Grant Robinson ‘21, Eric Sellew ‘20 and Fru Che ‘21 are all contributing. Amherst needs the help, and lately they have been getting it. However, they still have yet to play Middlebury, Wesleyan or Williams in league play, so we may well be writing a different article about them in a couple weeks.
Stock Down
The NbN Curse
It’s starting to look like the best thing for a team’s chances this year is to not be hyped up by this blog. We put Hamilton at number one in the Power Rankings when they were 15-0 and demolishing all comers like Darth Maul, and since then they’ve lost two league games and needed overtime to beat Colby. Their vaunted offense has produced 71 PPG on under 40% shooting in the last four games, and they still have to play Tufts, Williams and Middlebury. Hamilton could fall out of the top 5, and it might all our fault. And as if hamstringing Hamilton wasn’t enough, we did a whole Game of the Week about how Bates was making a move, and then they went out and got cracked by a struggling Wesleyan team 68-50. They shot 33% from the field and 25% from three, and didn’t look especially like a team ready to make a move. If they don’t grab one upset this weekend (either Hamilton or Amherst,) they might not make it to the postseason at all. We apologize in advance to anyone who we write about this week.
Bates got bodied by Wesleyan last weekend, and it’s all our fault.
Middlebury F Matt Folger ‘20 (on offense)
One of the reasons for Jack Daly’s insane amount of responsibility on offense is that Folger, Middlebury’s best scorer (better than Daly even when he’s got it all working) has been really struggling shooting the ball. In league play, Folger is shooting just 36% from the field and 25% from three. Sophomores often struggle to maintain their improvement over their first season into NESCAC play (Matt St. Amour is a good recent example for Middlebury) and Folger is certainly having trouble dealing with increased defensive attention. The emergence of Eric McCord ‘19 as a dominant post scorer has forced Folger to try and create more on the perimeter, a place where he is still not very comfortable. However, he is also simply missing good looks. They will start to fall. And Folger deserves commendation, even during this slump, for his defensive intensity. His case for DPOY has only gotten stronger during the NESCAC season. He is second in the league in blocks and ninth in rebounds during league play, and his versatility has been the key to Middlebury’s seven game winning streak despite a team wide shooting slump. Against Williams, Middlebury’s biggest win of the year, Folger had four blocks and a steal, including an earth-shattering rejection on Matt Karpowicz that I still think about every night before bed. Folger will start hitting shots, and when he puts that together with his defensive dominance, watch out.
(Editor’s Note: Folger broke out a little bit last night against Keene State, putting up 22 points on 8-12 shooting, although still just 1-4 from three.)
#11 Williams (12-3, 3-1) @ #16 Middlebury (11-3, 3-1), Saturday, January 20, 3:00 PM, Middlebury, VT
Overview:
The Ephs and the Panthers have become the NESCAC equivalent of the Cavs and Warriors in recent years. The teams met three times last season, including for the NESCAC Championship and in the NCAA Elite Eight. Williams ultimately got the last laugh, beating Middlebury in Pepin Gymnasium to advance to the Final Four. Both teams have carried over that success into this season. They are each ranked in the top 20 in the country, and have battled it out for the top spot in the league all season, along with Wesleyan and Hamilton.
However, both teams are far from unbeatable. Williams is without their star player, Kyle Scadlock ’19, for the rest of the season with a knee injury, and Middlebury’s shooting struggles are starting to become incredibly worrying. Middlebury’s NESCAC loss is to Wesleyan, whom Williams beat for their best win. And Williams’ lone NESCAC loss is to Tufts, whom Middlebury just beat handily at home for their best win. All this is to say that both these teams are again tremendously evenly matched, and this game should have huge ramifications for league standings and the playoff picture overall.
Middlebury X-Factor: G Max Bosco ’21
Max Bosco ’21 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
At first glance, this pick might seem to be coming out of left field. Bosco has played fewer minutes than his fellow first year guards Jack Farrell ’21 and Griffin Kornacker ’21, primarily due to his smaller stature and struggles to create shots for others off the dribble. Farrell and Kornacker are both miles ahead of Bosco defensively at this point, and Joey Leighton ’20 is certainly more confident offensively. But Bosco can really shoot the ball. He hasn’t gotten a lot of chances yet, but his stroke is as sweet as anyone’s. Middlebury is the worst three point shooting team in the league, and second worst overall from the field. The clutch heroics of Jack Daly and excellent team defense will not be able to save the Panthers against Williams; they have to hit some outside shots to match Williams’ three point heavy attack. Bosco is capable of doing so. Additionally, his defensive struggles will not be as pronounced against the Ephs. Bobby Casey ’20 and Mike Greenman ’18, and even Cole Teal ’18, are an excellent group of players, but they are not large. Casey and Teal will be handled by Daly and Hilal Dahleh ’19, leaving Bosco matched with the 5’8″ Greenman. Bosco has a great opportunity this game to do what he does best; hit shots.
Williams X-Factor: F Matt Karpowicz ’20
We gave Karpowicz a lot of love in the stock report earlier this week, and that’s not just because he wrote some average football articles for us in the fall. Karpowicz is often unstoppable on the block, shooting 73% from the field, almost all in the paint. He splits time with Michael Kempton ’19, another very large person. As longtime reader Howard Herman pointed out, the two players offer very different looks for the offense. Kempton is a distributor, averaging 2 assists per game despite only playing 15 minutes. However, he is not a scoring threat, only shooting 42% from the field. Karpowicz is a game-changing scorer, and draws a lot of attention on the block, freeing up dominant shooters like Casey and James Heskett ’19. Indeed, in Williams’ closer games he ends up playing most of the crunch time minutes. I expect Middlebury to get a far heavier dose of Karpowicz than Kempton. Middlebury’s Nick Tarantino ’18 is a great athlete, but struggles with strong post scorers who can back him down and neutralize his length and leaping ability. And Adisa Majors ’18 is simply undersized, no matter which big man Williams has in. This means that Eric McCord ’19 is the guy, and has to avoid the foul trouble that hurt him against Albertus Magnus. In a game in which Middlebury must game plan heavily for Casey and Heskett, Karpowicz is the guy for whom Middlebury has no answer for on their roster.
Expect Matt Karpowicz to far exceed is 15 minutes per game on Saturday.
Final Thoughts:
James Heskett is certainly on the short list for Player of the Year, along with his teammate Bobby Casey, Jack Daly and Hamilton’s Kena Gilmour. He’s very long, with a gorgeous jump shot and incredible quickness for his size. Indeed, he’s been arguably the best shooter in the league this season, hitting 51% from the field and 43% from three. Luckily for Middlebury, however, they have one of the only players in the league who can match his skill set, if not his efficiency, in Matt Folger ’20. Along with the rest of the Panthers, Folger’s shooting numbers have taken a hit of late, but he is still a deadly scorer inside and out. And more importantly for this match up, he is miles ahead of Heskett defensively. Heskett’s skill set and athleticism have not yet translated to that end, as he averages just 0.3 blocks per game and 0.9 steals. Even more jarring is that he averages just 3.8 rebounds a night, despite being 6’8.” Folger, on the other end, has clearly focused on the defensive side of the ball. He is second in the league in blocks at 2.4, and grabs 8.1 rebounds a night. If Folger can outscore Heskett, Middlebury has a good chance to win.
James Heskett and Matt Folger are the crucial matchup to watch.
Rebounding may well be the key to Middlebury’s chances in this game. The Panthers are a bona fide dominant team on the glass. Their numbers are skewed by pulling down a ridiculous 70 against Tufts, but they still lead the league in total rebounds, offensive rebounds, and are second in rebounding margin. Williams is towards the bottom of the league in all of those categories. For a team that struggles shooting like Middlebury does, offensive rebounds are a must have statistic, and were what kept them in the game against Tufts until they pulled away in the second half. Williams is a team Middlebury can bully on the glass, creating second chances if shots aren’t falling.
Last thing: this could be a huge game for Jack Daly. He historically raises his game against Williams, but this isn’t just his already covered “clutch gene.” Williams doesn’t really have an answer for his strength at the guard spots. Greenman is far too small, and Bobby Casey isn’t particularly strong defensively. In fact, Williams doesn’t have a single player averaging more than one steal per game. Even their big men are occaisionally timid inside, with the notable exception of Karpowicz. This means that Daly is usually able to get to the basket easily against the Ephs. He’ll draw attention to the paint, and he’s the best in the country at finding open players once he gets around the basket. The key will be how many shots those players can hit.
Writer’s Prediction:
No longtime readers will be surprised by this, but I think Middlebury, on the backs of Jack Daly and an assuredly raucous home crowd, pulls this one out.
Muddying the Water: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 1/16
This week we got everything we expect out of a weekend of NESCAC basketball: absolutely no clarity in the standings. We got no help this week trying to decide who is better than who, but this is what we love about our conference. Wesleyan looked like they were ready to make a jump to the top but has struggled recently, Middlebury is too hot and cold for us to get a read on, and we still don’t find ourselves completely sold on Hamilton. It’s still too early in the year for us to identify any major trends, and the standings don’t give us much to work with yet. I guess that leaves it up to the analysts to decide what’s really going on in the NESCAC this week:
Stock up
Middlebury F Eric McCord ‘19
Eric McCord ’19 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
In a league devoid of elite big men, McCord ’19 has been a consistent force down low for the Panthers. After starting off the season injured and struggling a bit as he worked his way back into shape, McCord had a breakout weekend, particularly against Tufts. On a team that has several perimeter scoring threats, McCord makes his living on the glass and in the paint. He had himself a huge game in a win over the Jumbos, netting 13 points and hauling in 15 rebounds. Tufts came into the game hot after taking down Williams on Friday night for their 9th straight victory, so this was a statement win by the Panthers. The big man duo of Nick Tarantino ’18 and Eric McCord ’19 certainly don’t get a ton of press on a team with Jack Daly ’18 and Matt Folger ’20, but they understand their role, and McCord especially has them emerging as one of the most efficient front courts in the NESCAC.
Wesleyan F Nathan Krill ‘18
Nathan Krill ’18 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
We have talked a lot this year about Jordan Bonner ’19 and Kevin O’Brien ’19 making the difference for this Cardinal squad. It’s time to talk about Nathan Krill ’18, because he is showing that Wesleyan is more than just those two players. Krill isn’t a super star by any means, but he is producing exactly at the level that he needs to be as a role player for this team. Against Hamilton, Krill netted 9 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, then followed that up with a 14-point, 10-rebound double-double in a huge win over Little Three rival Amherst. Krill has historically been a very streaky player, capable of both monster games and derailing the whole team with poor shooting and attitude. This season has seen him stay within himself more, a good sign for the Cardinals. Wesleyan needs to step it up a bit following their big win over Middlebury, and perhaps this will be fueled by Krill expanding his role a bit, because he has shown us that he is capable of doing so.
Stock down
Wesleyan’s Ascension
A few week’s ago, I wrote about how Wesleyan had begun to prove themselves, and they looked like the class of the NESCAC. Well, here I am, doubting everything I once said. After the Cardinals defeated the mighty Ephs on the road, in overtime, when they still had Kyle Scadlock, they looked like they were ready to compete for a championship. They have still given us plenty of reasons to believe they’re legit (see Nathan Krill ’18), but it is hard to really decide where they fall amongst the NESCAC’s elite. They were able to beat Amherst and Middlebury, two very legit wins, but they also fell to Hamilton and Williams the second time in the game that counted. The Cardinals are definitely a team capable of beating anyone (as they showed against Middlebury), but they aren’t quite ready to say that they’re here to stay at the top of the league, especially with Hamilton ascending and Middlebury figuring themselves out a bit against Tufts.
Wesleyan has fced down NESCAC’s best, and come out with a 2-2 record. That’s good, but they’re still not a guaranteed #1.
Williams’ Big Man Battle
The Ephs had a tough weekend, falling at home to Tufts in a hard fought game before taking care of Bates the following day. The Jumbos are a very good team, and Williams isn’t in the “stock down” category for any reason other than the fact that their frontcourt situation is as confusing as the plot of Inception. Matt Karpowicz ’20 and Michael Kempton ’19 make up undoubtedly the largest big man duo in the league, with Karpowicz standing at 6’8”, 250lbs and Kempton at 6’10”, 235lbs. From an outsider’s perspective, it is a mystery why Karpowicz isn’t seeing more time. Take this past weekend for instance; Karpowicz had 9 points, 10 rebounds against Tufts and 10 points, 11 rebounds against Bates. Kempton had 4 points, 3 rebounds against Tufts and 2 points, 3 rebounds against Bates. Karpowicz shot 67%, Kempton shot 38%. These numbers were all while both Kempton and Karpowicz were playing nearly identical minutes. This weekend was a microcosm for the entire year, because Karpowicz is obviously the more athletic and talented player, yet Kempton starts and splits the minutes. Williams isn’t playing especially poorly at the moment, but it is confusing why they wouldn’t use Matt Karpowicz ’20 more to bring themselves to a higher level.
Matt Karpowicz ’20 is one of the most talented big men in the league.
The last week has been a fascinating one from a power rankings perspective. The preseason top two teams, Middlebury and Williams, both suffered losses in which multiple pervasive problems were revealed. Amherst has also been struggling, while surprise teams like Bowdoin and Hamilton have continued to play well. The league is very hard to read heading into NESCAC play, and that’s definitely a good thing. Let’s get to the rankings.
1: #14 Wesleyan (9-1)
The Cardinals have two of the best wins in the league, over #11 Williams in a non conference game and over #21 Nichols. Wesleyan’s defense has always been dominant, but in recent years they have lacked the outside shooting (and scoring overall) to compete with the elite NESCAC teams like Middlebury, Williams and Amherst. This season, they have been able to score when they need to. Jordan Bonner ‘19 (16.8 PPG) has had a lot to do with this, but Austin Hutcherson ‘21 has emerged lately as the kind of X-Factor that could carry Wesleyan to the top of a wide-open league. In a three game stretch that featured wins over Vassar, Brandeis and Fitchburg State, Hutcherson had 14, 27 and 14 with 12 three pointers. However, he was held to zero points during Wesleyan’s loss to an inferior Springfield team on Tuesday night. That loss featured many of the scoring woes that have plagued the Cardinals in recent years, so it seems that Hutcherson will be a crucial factor in determining whether their success will continue in NESCAC play. A back-to-back home matchup with Williams and Middlebury this weekend will be the best possible test of Wesleyan’s legitimacy.
Austin Hutcherson ’21 could throw his name right into the ROY race with some strong NESCAC performances.
2: Tufts (9-3)
Don’t look now, but Tufts is figuring it out. They’ve won five games in a row, and are the hottest team entering league play outside of undefeated Hamilton. Cam wrote a good deal about them in the Stock Report, but the return of KJ Garrett ‘18 makes the Jumbos dangerous again as contenders for the league crown. An electric athlete who can score in bunches and defend multiple positions, Garrett is the kind of player who can swing games all by himself on either end of the court. And he did just that in their tournament. Garrett had 30 points in the two games (18 in a Game One win over Pomona) and added 12 rebounds and five steals. With Vinny Pace back in form and Eric Savage making a big leap (15.6 PPG,) Tufts is as deep on the perimeter as anyone. And there aren’t too many big men in the league who can really exploit their lack of size, so Tufts is right back in the top tier.
3: #4 Middlebury (7-2)
The Panther’s ride to a three-peat has hit a classic New England speed bump. The Panthers have lost two of their last three games, the last one a blowout at home, something that has happened maybe once or twice in the last five years. It must be noted, however, that the losses were to #12 York and #13 Swarthmore. Middlebury has played the toughest non-league schedule of anyone, and they just paid for it. However, Middlebury should still be able to win those games, especially at home. The culprit has been scoring, particularly from the perimeter. Middlebury was relying a great deal on relatively unproven quantities like Jack Farrell ‘21, Joey Leighton ‘20 and Hilal Dahleh ‘19 to aid Jack Daly ‘18 and Matt Folger ‘20 in scoring. And honestly, no one has been hitting and outside shots. In this rough three game stretch, Middlebury is just 16-69 (definitely NOT nice) from three. That’s about 23%. As a result of this, teams are throwing all their defenders at Daly, who is trying to do a little too much against that pressure due to his own struggles from three. Middlebury still has a lot of talent, and should benefit from this early exposure to high level competition. But they have to hit more shots this weekend, especially in their marquee Saturday matchup with Wesleyan.
4: #24 Hamilton (10-0)
First of all, congratulations are in order. Hamilton is nationally ranked for the first time since 2004. And yet, they can still claim that they’re underrated. 10-0 and fourth in the power rankings? Tough break for the Continentals, who have been by far the most impressive team in preseason (albeit with a bad schedule.) Hamilton’s offense is firing on every cylinder right now. They average nearly 100 points per game on 50% shooting and 39% from three. They have four players averaging over 13 points per game, and none of them are seniors. However, their defense will need to improve if they are to buck their recent trend of fading in NESCAC play. Hamilton’s big starting lineup (the smallest starter is athletic Kena Gilmour ‘20 at 6’3”) should lead to versatility, but their forwards are undersized and they often get killed in the paint. Hamilton is last in the NESCAC in opponents field goal percentage at 44%. They will not be able to simply outscore NESCAC teams.
Tim Doyle ’19 had 25 points against Moravian, and is one of Hamilton’s many weapons on offense.
5: #11 Williams (9-2)
The Ephs may be finally starting to notice that Kyle Scadlock is not on the court. Their 73-71 loss to 4-5 Hamline is the worst one of the recent rash of top tier NESCAC losses. Williams has a real problem with finding a secondary scoring option alongside the rising star of James Heskett ‘19. Heskett has done a terrific job taking on the go-to-guy mantle, averaging nearly 23 points per game on over 50% shooting in their last three games. But other players who had been scoring well, such as Bobby Casey ‘19, have recently fallen off. Obviously, one game is no reason to panic. But league games are looming, and Williams starts off on Friday with a road game at Wesleyan, the toughest opening game of any team. Teams will be on notice now about Heskett’s emergence, and Wesleyan (and Tufts and Middlebury for that matter) have plenty of athletes on the perimeter to throw at Casey. As always, I think Williams should up the minutes of Matt Karpowicz ‘20. He’s a scoring threat down low and could force defenses to move around more instead of sitting on the three pointer. We’ll see how they handle Wesleyan on Friday.
6: Amherst (7-3)
Amherst is entering league play on a decidedly downward trajectory. They’ve lost two in a row with opposite problems contributing to each loss. In a 76-65 loss to Southeastern, Amherst shot only 37% from the field, including a 2-13 showing from Johnny McCarthy ‘18. And then in their next game, a 95-92 loss to Eastern Connecticut, Amherst shot 57% from the field and got 25 points from McCarthy and 22 from Michael Riopel ‘18. However, those two players combined for over half of their points, and they still gave up 95 to the other team. Amherst’s offense goes as McCarthy goes, and like McCarthy, they are struggling for consistency. They still lack a third scoring option that can be trusted every night, just as they did last season. Every year people are waiting for Amherst to turn it on. Their success rightfully makes them a perpetual sleeping giant. But it might be the case that they just don’t have enough talent this season.
7: Trinity (9-2)
I feel like no one, especially us, has said a single word about Trinity yet this season. But as quietly as possible, the Bantams are 9-2 and have won five games in a row. They’ve done it, as is their way, with defense. They are second only to Wesleyan in opponent’s field goal percentage and points per game. Additionally, they absolutely handled Springfield (the team that recently handed Wesleyan their first loss) earlier this season 71-54. Like the Cardinals, Trinity’s strength on defense is balanced out by struggles on offense. In the preseason, Trinity has gotten fairly consistent scoring from Jeremy Arthur ‘19 (13.7 PGG) and Eric Gendron ‘18 (10.3 PPG.) However, Gendron only shoots 22% from three, and Trinity as a team only shot 31% from downtown. Their offense will need to be more versatile in NESCAC play.
8: Bowdoin (8-2)
The Polar Bears have rebounded nicely from their two game losing streak,
Zavier Rucker ’21 has been a great find for Bowdoin this season, and become even more valuable as the season goes on.
winning their last two in impressive fashion. This mini-streak including a non-league win over Bates. Bowdoin has been shooting the ball very well lately, hitting over 50% of their shots in both of those wins. Despite having only started one game, David Reynolds ‘20 has taken over for Jack Simonds ‘19 (who is struggling mightily from the field at 39.5%) as the go to scorer. But the key to Bowdoin’s league success may well end up being a first year. PG Zavier Rucker is still shooting 66.7% from the field in 31.1 minutes per game. He has also shown tremendous maturity in running the offense, especially for a first year. His assist to turnover ratio is 2.5, fifth best among players with over 30 assists. And his size (6’2”, 187) and strength have made him an elite defender already. He averages 1.5 steals per game, and will be essential in guarding the variety of excellent guards in the NESCAC. Bowdoin has the talent to reach heights they haven’t seen in years, and Rucker is a huge part of that chance.
9: Colby (7-3)
The best big man you haven’t heard about plays for the Mules, and his name is Dean Weiner. Yes, I know he sounds like the bad guy in a raunchy college comedy, but he is quietly putting up one of the best stat lines in the league. He averages 10.3 PPG, and leads the league in rebounds (9.4) and blocks (2.8.) But what really sets him apart is his passing. He averages four assists per game, with an A/TO ratio of 2.5. That’s better than many guards. In a league somewhat devoid of star big men, Weiner could be a problem for many teams come league play. His versatility could give traditional big men like Williams’ Karpowicz and Middlebury’s Nick Tarantino ‘18 problems, and he’s good enough around the rim (58.3% from the field) to punish smaller players in switches. Colby may not have enough shooting around him to be really dangerous, but they’ve got a star, the first key to NESCAC success.
Dean Weiner ’19 has done it all this season for the surprising Colby Mules.
10: Bates (7-5)
Bates still simply cannot shoot. They are shooting 39% from the field as a team, and 29% from three, both far and away the worst marks in the league. And this is in non-conference play: they still have to face the elite defense of the NESCAC. Jeff Spellman ‘20 carries the most offensive burden of any player in the league, and as a result, defenses are throwing everything they have at him. He’s only shooting 30% from three, and that is simply because he is forced to take many tough shots. Given this trend, it is surprising that Max Hummel ‘19 doesn’t play more. He is far and away Bates’ best shooter (indeed, one of the best in the league) at 45.5% from three, and yet he only plays 17 minutes per game. In league play, Hummel might and should be forced into a sixth man or even starting role, in order to find some shooting and free up Spellman.
11: Connecticut College (5-6)
The Camels have lost four of their last five games, and it’s kind of unclear as to why. Their teams shooting numbers are excellent (second in the league in three point shooting at 37%,) they have a star in David Laboissiere ‘18 (17 PPG on 45% shooting from three) and a strong secondary scorer in Dan Draffan ‘21. For more on Draffan, check out Colby’s (the writer, not the college) Awards Preview. Generally speaking, the culprit behind the Camel’s struggles is defense, but it seems more that they have a lack of toughness. All of their losses have been by at least 9 points, suggesting that when they get down, they are not good at managing runs by opponents. However, their shooting ability means that they could be a problem if they get hot. They have a good chance to turn it around on Friday night when the shaky Middlebury Panthers come to town.
