The Jumbo pitching staff faltered against Midd last weekend–can they turn it around against Bowdoin?
Tufts had an off weekend last weekend so there was no NESCAC play for them. Although they did not participate in an official conference game, they were still busy with non-conference matchups against Salem State, MIT, Midd, Keene State and Roger Williams. Tufts was knockout against Salem State and MIT, scoring a combined 40 runs in the two games. Next they split two games against Midd in what could be a possible championship preview. Their final two games were a split as well, taking a close one from Keene State and losing to Roger Williams. Overall Tufts has played well this season but not outstanding has we have seen from them in the past. Bowdoin looks to put Tufts to the test after pulling off their shocking first three wins of the season in a sweep of in-state rival Colby. Two of the three games were absolute blowouts and in all three wins the Polar Bears combined to score 26 runs while giving up just 5. While this is certainly exciting for the Bowdoin program, the score lines may attest more to Colby’s woes than Bowdoin’s talents.
Trinity rolled into Lewiston last weekend confident that they could win another series and advance their championship goals, but the Bobcats had other ideas in mind. Trinity dropped two of the three games and while their NESCAC record is still good, it could have been much better. After the weekend, Trinity had a non-conference matchup against Williams which they once again won narrowly, on a walk-off in fact. Trinity had been skidding by recently but a change of pace in opponent may be exactly what they need to relight the fire. Colby’s fire was extinguished last weekend in what was a fairly embarrassing sweep that was given to a rival who was previously winless. To give a team their three first wins in a row during conference play is a brutal scenario but that is what the Mules have in front of them. An injury to shortstop Andrew Russell certainly did not help the Mules’ chances, but they were far less than satisfactory both offensively and defensively. Trinity will be a much stronger opponent than Bowdoin was so the Mules will have to adjust quickly in order to survive.
Prediction: Trinity clean sweep
Amherst (12-7, 3-3 NESCAC) @ Hamilton (11-9, 3-3 NESCAC)
Matt Zaffino and the Conts are out to shock the world…They take on Amherst in their third consecutive series this weekend and need to win the series to remain alive.
The NESCAC West is still absolutely the wild, wild west and Amherst and Hamilton are right in the thick of it. Amherst has won 6 of their last 7 games heading into this series, including a NESCAC series win over Williams. The Mammoths have found ways to edge out their opponents and as a result have had great success. If they can continue their hot hitting streak and pitching stays in line, they have more than a chance of making it into the conference tourney and making a splash. Hamilton has been similarly impressive, as was shown in their two wins over Wesleyan, who was picked by many to win the NESCAC this season. The Continentals have rode their strong pitching staff and key offensive leaders to their point. In order to break their ceiling they will need their roleplayers to step up and beat expectations.
Prediction: Amherst takes 2 of 3
Middlebury (13-6, 2-1 NESCAC) @ Williams (14-4, 1-2 NESCAC)
Michael Farinelli has come out of nowhere for the Panthers this season; Williams’ hitters have been hot up to this point–something’s gotta give this weekend.
While Midd does stand atop the NESCAC West and Williams sits in the cellar, they are only separated by 2 games. Midd did not participate in NESCAC play last weekend but they did win 3 of their 4 non-conference games, including a win over Tufts. Ace Colby Morris has been holding it down for the Panthers, looking to recapture his Pitcher of the Year title. Midd has been impressive offensively, hitting just under .300 as a team. While this is a good average, teams such as Tufts and Trinity will be able to outslug them with ease. Williams was somewhat disappointing coming into NESCAC play after an impressive preseason. They lost two of three games to Amherst before exploding for 14 runs in the final game of the series. Since then Williams has lost one close game to Trinity and earned a decisive victory over Vassar. I think Williams still has more in the tank to show us and we shouldn’t start sleeping on them quite yet.
After losing a close series to Wesleyan last weekend, Amherst will have a chance at redemption as they will open up a 3 game series versus in-state rival Williams. All three games that the Mammoths played last weekend were close ones and unfortunately for them they found themselves on the wrong side of two of them. Dan Lombardo ’19 provided a quality start for Amherst in the final game of the series and Jake Alonzo ’20 came in and pitched a scoreless 2 ⅔ innings to earn his first save of the year and salvage a NESCAC win for the Mammoths. One of the biggest surprises for Amherst this year has been the success of freshman Daniel Qin ’22. He is hitting at a .426 clip and has an OPS over 1.150. Despite his 0-2 record, Senior Andrew Ferrero ’19 is having a solid season thus far, maintaining an ERA of 2.08 while only allowing 4 walks in his 13IP. Amherst has the opportunity to make a playoff run but they will need more pieces to the puzzle than they have now. While Williams has not officially entered NESCAC play, taking 2 non-conference games from Colby last weekend, they have been nothing but impressive in their games thus far. Their 12-1 record is due, in no small part, to the explosiveness of their offense which has been on display this spring. Senior Doug Schaffer ’19 is playing out of his mind, putting up a slash line of .571/.571/.816. He is second in the conference in hits and slugging percentage, fourth in doubles and leads the league in RBI and batting average. When a guy in on a tear like that it is tough for his teammates to not want to get in on the fun. Sophomore Erik Pappas ’21 has also been impressive, scoring 23 runs and batting .468. As a team the Ephs are hitting .343 so it is safe to conclude that hitting is in fact infectious. Although the team era for Williams is not as impressive as their average, it does not matter so much when your opponent ERA is above 8.5.
Prediction: Williams takes 2 out of 3
Hamilton (8-8, 1-2 NESCAC) @ Wesleyan
(8-9, 2-1 NESCAC)
All
@ Wesleyan
Ethan Wallis has been off to a very hot start for the Continentals
Hamilton will return from their sunny spring break in Florida to face off against Wesleyan in their second NESCAC contest of the year. In their previous contest the Continentals were able to take one game out of three from Middlebury. This was in large part to Gavin Schafer-Hood ’21, who continued to pitch great in a complete-game one run victory. When it comes to swinging the bats Hamilton has struggled more than most. Leading the pace for the Continentals is sophomore Ethan Wallis ’21 who is posting an impressive .409 batting average. He is also the lone Continental to go yard this season. Hamilton will be looking for a chance to right the ship in what will be a difficult matchup with Wesleyan. While Wesleyan’s non-conference record seemed to be less than impressive heading into NESCAC play, it didn’t seem to matter as they were able to come in and get their first series win of the new campaign. Solid pitching is what propelled the Cardinals, only allowing 7 runs in the 3 game series. Kelvin Sosa ’21 collected the win in the first game while Dan Lombardo ’19 took game two. Offensively Wesleyan’s top performer has been Andrew Kauf ’20. Kauf is batting .426 and leads the team with 20 RBIs (10 more than second place). Wesleyan seems to be an upperclassmen heavy team who knows when to get hot. They could be very dangerous this season.
Prediction: Wesleyan takes 2 out of 3
Bowdoin (0-14-1, 0-3 NESCAC) vs Colby
(6-6, 0-0 NESCAC)
Saturday
doubleheader @ Colby, Sunday @ Bowdoin
The
Colby College Mules enter this series with no previous NESCAC experience,
although they did play Williams in two non-conference matchups. Colby had what
looked to be a much improved spring break compared to last year as they are
already just one win away from matching their season total last year. Lots of
thanks is due to their much improved offense. Junior Will Wessman leads the
team in hits, doubles, runs, RBIs and home runs. They do not seem to have two
or three key starters in the rotation but rather there seem to be 7 or 8 guys
who could take the mound to start the game. Perhaps this strategy will play as
the spring break schedule has come to an end, but who’s to say? Their team ERA
is still a little high, which will hurt them in NESCAC play. Although the
transition to NESCAC play can be tough at times, Colby gets a very easy
transition in the form of Bowdoin. Not much has seemed to go right for the
Polar Bears this season. They are yet to win a game through 15 total contests.
They are batting below .215 as a team and their team ERA is near 8. I am not
really sure what their is to praise or say about this team. It has got to be
tough to watch and even tougher to participate in. I would give most teams an
automatic sweep, but given the rivalry and Colby’s problems in NESCAC play last
season, nothing is guaranteed.
Johnny Stamatis is one of the most dangerous hitters in the NESCAC this year
The Bantams are riding high right now, entering this series maintaining an 11 game win streak. This streak includes a clean sweep of Bowdoin to start their NESCAC play. Not only are they shining in NESCAC play, but in non-conference games they have some quality wins like their win over MIT. Nearly every guy up and down the lineup is hitting over .300 and it shows in their offensive production. Their 5 states that they rotate between have all been solid as well, maintaining ERAs between 2 and 4. Trinity appears to be a well-rounded team that has the talent and capabilities to go deep into the playoffs. Bates did not fare quite as well in their first NESCAC series. Tufts was able to take the first two games but the Bobcats managed to snatch the last game, which was a close one. Bates had an underwhelming preseason which does not project to a particularly exciting or prosperous conference play. While they may have individual players such as Christian Beal ’21 or Nolan Collins ’20 who can shine on their own, as a team they don’t seem to have what it takes to make it deep this year.
League play has
arrived! After a long offseason and a few weeks of non-conference play, NESCAC
foes will step on to the same diamond for the first time this season. The first
weekend always carries a lot of question marks, because we don’t really know what
to expect from every team. Some teams play tougher out of conference schedules
than others, but for the first time this weekend we will begin to have a better
idea of who is for real and who isn’t.
Williams @ Colby in Kissimmee, Florida
One of the early
stories of the season has been the emergence of this Williams team, a team that
came into the season with more questions than answers. The Ephs enter this
series 9-1, already as many wins as they had last year. They have done it on
the backs of their infield, namely sophomores Erik Mini (.390, 15 RBI) and Eric
Pappas (.514, 8 RBI), and the white hot IF Doug Schaffer ’19, hitting .561
through 10 game and amassing a preposterous 27 RBI, 8 more than anyone else in
the league. But the Ephs have also shown a flair for the dramatic, which could
be covering up a few cracks. They’ve won 3 games in their final at-bats, most
notably an upset win over then #9 Johns Hopkins and a 5-run bottom of the 8th
to beat St. Olaf 10-8. The pitching is yet to come around (4.50 ERA) and it’s
always hard to judge how other teams are treating non-conference games. We’ll
learn a lot about them this weekend. The same goes for the Colby Mules, who are
only 6-1, thanks to Mother Nature. The Mules have shown they can win in a
variety of ways, putting up 10+ runs in half of the wins, and holding their
opponents to 4 or less runs in 4 of their games. They’re hitting .410 as a
team, paced by 3B Will Wessman ‘20’s .400/.448/.800 line to go along with 2 HRs
and 11 RBI. But Colby has started 7 different pitchers in their 7 games, so we
don’t have a lot to go off of in terms of knowing what they’ll bring to the
bump. I’m going to give the edge to Williams in this one—momentum in baseball
can be a scary thing and they’re as hot as anyone right now. While this is
technically a non-conference series (@NESCAC, this is a problem), it still
should reveal some aspects of each team that will reveal who each is.
Prediction: Williams 2-1
Hamilton @ Middlebury in Orlando, Florida
A series worth being exciting about between two teams who are getting right to the nitty and gritty to begin the year. Middlebury comes in at 8-4, but with a scoring margin of +42, while Hamilton has eked out a 7-6 start with a lot of close games. It’s hard not to give the edge to the Panthers in this series, with all that we know about both teams. Hamilton would be smart not to match their ace Gavin Schaefer-Hood ’21 (22.0 IP, 3-0, 2.05 ERA) with reigning league Pitcher of the Year Colby Morris ’19 of Middlebury (21.0 IP, 2-0, 3.00 ERA) if they want the best chance to steal this series. If they save him a day that will ideally put them in a position to split the first two and take their chances in a rubber match Game 3. Middlebury has to feel really good about the contributions they’re getting up and down the roster coming into this weekend, with 5 different guys already having cleared the fence, and 7 different guys having made starts for the Panthers, half of them coming from 4 different freshmen. Reigning Rookie of the Year IF Matt Zaffino ’21 has yet to really get going for the Conts (.270/.415/.324) but I think Schaefer-Hood will be good enough to get them a win if he doesn’t face Morris.
Prediction: Middlebury 2-1
Bates @ Tufts
Justin Foley is one of the most reliable starters for the Bobcats
A matchup between the 2018 playoff representatives of the NESCAC East kicks off divisional play in Somerville. Tufts (9-2) was expected to be able to offset the loss of their superstar senior class, namely Falkson, O’Hara, and Nachmanoff, on the backs of arguably the best rotation in the league in Brent Greeley ’20, R.J. Hall ‘19, and Spencer Langdon ’20, but the Jumbos have come out mashing once again to start the season, plating 124 runs in just 11 games. Langdon has moved to the bullpen, but Hall and Greeley look every bit the best 1-2 combination in the league, combing to allow 2 ER in 28 innings. Bates (5-6) has yet to hit their stride at the plate (.359 slugging as a team, 63 runs), but they have two proven quality starters in Nolan Collins (18.0 IP, 2-0, 2.00 ERA) and Justin Foley (20.1 IP, 1-1, 3.54). But they’re running into a buzz saw to start their conference play. Tufts is hitting the cover off of the ball and their first two starters are as good as anyone in the entire league. We don’t know who their third starter is yet, presumably sophomore Manny Ray (11.0 IP, 1-0, 3.27 ERA), but his classmate Jamie Weiss has also made two starts and freshman Aidan Tucker leads the Jumbos in appearances (5) and innings pitched (15). But whoever it is is going to be able to rely on a lot more run support than anyone Bates throws out there. Collins is 5th in the league with a 9.50 K/9 and he’s going to need to use the punchout to get through this lineup. If he can do that they might be able to steal one, but I would bet against it.
Prediction: Tufts 3-0
Trinity @ Bowdoin in Waterville, Maine
While it’s true you can never take too much away from non-conference play, anytime you go winless in your first 11 games, it’s a red flag. That’s exactly what Bowdoin has done, starting their season 0-10-1. Needless to say, it’s been poor play all around the diamond for the Polar Bears. The offense has logged 33 runs in 11 games, good for 3 a game. They’re hitting .208 as a team. Brandon Lopez ’19 and Colby Lewis ’20 have actually looked like the duo they’re expected to be, combining to throw 20.1 IP with a 2.66 ERA. But the rest of the rotation has been so dismal that their team ERA currently sits at 9.56. And just to make matters worse, their .942 fielding percentage is 8th in the league. The silver lining in all of this however, is that Bowdoin played a tough, tough schedule over their spring break, heading out to Los Angeles to play a number of strong west coast teams, a trip that Williams made last season with similar results. But playing Trinity probably isn’t going to be how they turn it around. The Bantams come in as hot as the Polar Bears are cold, winners of 6 in a row and 9-2 overall. Trinity is second in the league with 101 runs in 11 games, getting production across the board—namely in 4 players with double digit RBI. It has been the usual suspects like Stamatis and Koperniak, but also in breakout performers like freshman Mike Guanci Jr., hitting .295 and driving in 12 in to start his first college season, as well as junior Mack Lauder, hitting .324 and also driving in 12. The Bantams have manufactured runs with their typically terrific baserunning, stealing 45 bases (leading the league) and only getting caught 4 times. Admittedly the pitching has not been stellar, getting touched up to the tune of a 6.03 ERA. Star reliever Erik Mohl ’19 has yet to find his groove (17.0 IP, 5.29) and no pitcher has made more than 2 starts yet so we’re waiting for answers this weekend in terms of a set rotation. But if there was any team to play to get some confidence in a struggling rotation, it would be Bowdoin and their offense.
If Amherst can find a way to keep the games close, senior closer Mike Dow should be able to shut the door with some of his on-field antics
The series of the weekend is a Little 3 matchup in Middletown that will surely have playoff ramifications. Wesleyan (5-8) has not had a great non-conference performance, and that is because their much-maligned starting rotation has yet to solve the problems that plagued them last year. Mike McCaffrey ‘19’s junior woes have followed him into his senior season, lasting just 8.2 innings across 3 starts, with a 6.23 ERA. Sosa (15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA) and Clare (12.1 IP, 4.38 ERA) have not been much better either. The offense has been rolling, hitting .336 as a team (2nd) and scoring 99 runs (3rd), it’s just the 9th ranked 7.07 ERA that needs improvement. IF Andrew Kauf ’20 has placed himself firmly in the early Player of the Year conversation, pacing Wesleyan with a .474 average, 27 hits, and 19 RBI. They just need some pitching. Amherst (6-4) has had an unremarkable start in either direction. They’re 5th in the league in both batting average (.317) and runs scored (86). Their pitching has been quite good, though, second in the league with a 3.82 ERA and a league leading 10.43 K/9. CF Joseph Palmo ’21 (.432, 1 HR, 11 RBI) and freshman IF Daniel Qin (.387, 1 HR, 8 RBI) have been the guys doing at the dish so far for the Mammoths, which should be exciting for a team that is yet to get its top returners going. On the mound it’s been RHP Wilson Taylor ’19 (10.1 IP, 1-0, 1.74 ERA) who has shone the brightest out of a rotation that could really use some more help from the guys behind it. Amherst has the second worst fielding percentage in the league at .932, but their mistakes have been incredibly costly, as just 33 of the 60 runs they’ve allowed have been earned. The pitching has been good, and you could argue that they’ve just been a little unlucky to start the season. When you take into consideration that 2 of their 4 losses are against ranked opponents, then you realize they’ve been a pretty good team, as opposed to a Wesleyan team that is still trying to find itself defensively.
Now we’re getting to the good part. The weaklings have been filtered out and only the top dogs remain. Amherst is fortunate enough to host the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds, but the committee punished them with an absolutely loaded region. According to the most recent d3hoops.com rankings, this region features teams ranked 5th, 6th, 7th, and 14thin the nation so it most certainly is the cream of the crop. The combined record of these four teams is 105-12 (.897) and their average margin of victory through the first two rounds is just less than 20 points. These are some of the most talented and well-coached teams in the land and only one team can advance to the Final Four in Fort Wayne, Indiana. This is the best that D3 basketball has to offer so get ready for an action-packed weekend at LeFrak Gymnasium.
#7 Amherst College Mammoths (25-4, beat Rosemont and #23 Rochester)
How They Got Here
Eric Sellew has played a huge part in getting the Mammoths to the Sweet 16
The Mammoths didn’t have much difficulty advancing to the Sweet 16. They obliterated Rosemont in the first round, then had a more tightly contested affair versus Rochester but led the whole way and came home with the win. On Friday everyone was hot for Amherst but they were led by Eric Sellew’s 10-point, 11-rebound double double. The Rochester game was a bit more of a battle, but a strong effort from the starting five behind Grant Robinson’s 17 points on 50% shooting propelled them to victory and potentially two more home games before the season ends. Defense has really led the way so far as the Mammoths have allowed just 120 points through their first two games – tied for the fewest of any remaining team. They’ve been thrown into a region with some teams that are capable of putting up big scores, so I guess we’re about to find out just how good their defense really is.
Who They Lose To
Normally this section would be titled “How They Lose,” but we already talked about how Amherst would lose in our preview for their first two rounds and we’re sticking to that. Instead, I’ll talk about who is the most likely candidate to take down the Mammoths in this region. That team, I believe, is the Swarthmore College Garnet. The Garnet made it all the way to the Elite Eight last season and they didn’t lose a whole lot from last year’s team. In fact, they even added dynamic freshman guard George Visconti who has been huge in their development this season. Swarthmore is getting hot at the right time, winners of their last 12 games in a row. In fact, they’ve already defeated each of the three teams that they lost to this year. They rolled through their first two NCAA Tournament games, including a 105-65 romping of no. 12 nationally ranked MIT in the second round. This region is stacked with talent but I think Swarthmore is the team to beat heading into Amherst this weekend.
The Competition
#14 Nichols College Bison (27-2, beat Middlebury and Rowan)
Marcos Echevarria is one of the most exciting players on any team left in the tournament
The Bison have been a pretty underrated team this season. They hold a 27-2 record and they cruised through the Commonwealth Coast Conference tournament – only picking up one conference loss in 18 games this season. Senior guard Marcos Echevarria is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 20.6 points per game and while posting a number of 30-point games this year. Nichols boasts a pair of 6’8” big men by the names of Jerome Cunningham and Matt Morrow who do the bulk of the rebounding work, combing for over 19 rebounds per game. The size that these two guys bring often results in a mismatch at one or multiple positions on the court, and this team is very good at exploiting those mismatches. On the defensive end, this duo helps compensate for the fact that none of the starters in the Bison backcourt are over 6 feet or 160 pounds soaking wet. This is a funky team because their starting five is made up of three guys who look like they belong on the JV team and two guys who look like they should’ve gone D1. Nichols has had their way with NESCAC opponents this year, taking down Wesleyan, Trinity, Tufts, and Middlebury on their way to the Sweet 16. So be wary, because they can and will surprise you.
#6 Swarthmore College Garnet (26-3, beat Mitchell and #12 MIT)
The Garnet are dangerous.
I’ve talked about them already so as you can see, Swarthmore is legit. They feature senior point guard Cam Wiley who’s coming off his second consecutive Centennial Conference Player of the Year award and junior forward Zac O’Dell who earned the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year award. These are two of the very best players at their respective positions and they’re complemented nicely by sophomore sharpshooter Conor Harkins who knocks down threes at a very impressive 45% clip. Coach Kosmalski has done an outstanding job since taking over as head coach and has now coached the Garnet to their most successful season in program history for the fourth year in a row. Swarthmore just keeps on getting better and better so I think this could be the year they make a deeper run into the tournament.
#5 Randolph-Macon College Yellow Jackets (27-3, beat Morrisville St. and York)
Buzz Anthony is hoping for a few more opportunities to drop dimes this year
The Yellow Jackets actually fell to Guilford in the Old Dominion Athletic Conference championship game, but received an at-large bid to the tournament and have looked dominant thus far. Sophomore Buzz Anthony is the guy for Randolph-Macon, as he won the conference’s Player of the Year award averaging 15.8 points and 5.7 assists per game – the latter of which is good for 21stin the nation. Jon Nowell and Grayson Midulla take on the bulk of the rebounding work, although the tallest player on the team is actually senior Luke Neeley. This guy is an absolute weapon from beyond the arc and he also stands at 6’8”, making his shot nearly unblockable. Oh, and did I mention he’s also left-handed? Neeley is a real threat for this team and he isn’t even one of their top three scoring options. Randolph-Macon is a bit of an unknown to those of us in New England, but they’re capable of doing some damage in this region just as much as anyone.
#7 Amherst (23-4, 7-3, Defeated Hamilton to Win NESCAC Championship)
Prior to the NESCAC Tournament, Amherst was in a very good position to snag a spot in the Big Dance. Their résumé included a 20-4 overall record, with a season sweep of Williams along with win at Middlebury. Instead of leaving it up to the committee, however, the Mammoths pulled off three straight, eventually defeating Hamilton en route to their 8th NESCAC Championship. They’re headed back to the NCAA Tournament after missing out for the first time since 2010 last season, and look poised to make a deep run.
The Mammoths went on a tear to end the regular season, winning nine of their past ten games. They finished ranked #7 in D3 polls, the highest ranking among NESCAC teams. Given its recent historical success in the NCAA tournament (19 appearances, 4 Final Fours, 2 National Championships all within the last 25 years), to not make the postseason tournament last season was a disappointment to say the least. With such a deep and talented squad that’s peaking at the right time, Amherst is ready to make a deep run in March.
How They Got Here:
On paper, Amherst did not have the most talented team in the NESCAC, nor would many have thought they would win a NESCAC Championship this season. They lost their top two scorers in Mike Riopel ‘18 (12.7 PPG) and Johnny McCarthy ‘18 (11.9 PPG), and while Grant Robinson ‘21 and Fru Che ‘21 averaged a combined 17 PPG as freshman, it was a tall task to ask these two to lead the Mammoths back to the postseason. Well, the duo exploded onto the scene in the 2018-2019 season, with Robinson in particular taking the bull by the horns, averaging 17.8 PPG and 5.5 REB/G and putting his name into consideration for NESCAC Player of the Year. Amherst’s offense was much better once conference play kick-started, as they had the second-highest field goal percentage in conference play along with the most rebounds per game and offensive rebounds per game. Robinson and Che (12.3 PPG, including 17.3 PPG in his last six games), were two of nine members who logged at least 10 minutes per game, and six of those nine averaged at least 8.0 PPG. But for all the improvements on the offensive side, it’s the defense that paved the way for Amherst to become NESCAC Champions. They were the league’s second-best defense in points per game allowed, suffocated opponents by allowing a league-best 40% field goal percentage, and had by far the best rebounding margin (+9.9 per game) in the NESCAC. They say defense wins championships, and if the Mammoths carry their high caliber defense into the postseason, they will most certainly be a tough out for even the most offensively savvy squads.
How They Lose:
More often than not, Amherst gets into trouble when the games they play become high-scoring affairs. Two of their three losses in league play came when Colby and Hamilton scored over 80 points, and Amherst does not have enough consistency on offense to get into shootouts. I’d liken them to a Virginia-esque squad in the sense that they have players who can take over a game and put up points, but they have much more success when the defense grinds down opponents and they slow the pace of the game to their liking. Another thing those two losses had in common was both Colby and Hamilton shot plenty of free throws; Colby attempted a ridiculous 41 free throws (converting 33), while Hamilton made 17 of their 21 free throw attempts. Because it is so hard to repeatedly convert shots against Amherst’s defense, the best bet for opposing teams is to take the ball to the rack and get to the line as often as possible. Amherst is also a poor three point shooting team (31.6%) and does not generate a ton of assists (just 13.4 assists per game) so opposing defenses should look to pack the paint and force the Mammoths to beat them from beyond the arc.
The Ravens won the Colonial States Athletic Conference for the first time in program history, defeating #1 seed Cairn and earning an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. It’s Rosemont’s first NCAA Tournament appearance, but similar to Amherst, the Ravens got hot late and are currently on an eight-game winning streak. This squad brings a dangerous plethora of offensive weapons (even with the loss of Basil Thompson ‘19 (16.1 PPG) early in the season due to unknown reasons) to test Amherst’s resilient defense; three Ravens average double figures, led by Keith Blassingale ‘20 (19.1 PPG), who averaged a ridiculous 31.4 points per game in his last five contests including a 45 point performance in Rosemont’s 113-79 semi-final victory over Wilson College. 6’6’’ forward Jaylen Myers ‘19 is an excellent scoring option as well, nearly averaging a double-double with 15.6 PPG and 9.6 REB/G. The Ravens like to get out and score, averaging 82.0 PPG, shoot close to 47% from the field, and are excellent free throw shooters at 75.4%. The ability to score plus the great free throw shooting numbers point directly to a potential upset, however the Ravens play in a much weaker basketball conference than the NESCAC where defense seems optional (none of the teams in the conference allow less than 77 PPG). They also struggle to rebound the ball, something Amherst does exceptionally well. It’s possible Blassingale and Rosemont come out hot and give the Mammoths a scare, but Amherst should be able to settle in and take care of the Ravens.
University of Rochester Yellow Jackets (20-4, 12-4, finished second in Conference)
The runners up in the University Athletic Association Conference and #23 in the D3 polls snagged one of the 21 at large bids handed out by the NCAA Tournament committee. The UAA doesn’t have a postseason tournament, but Rochester lost to Emory on the final day of the regular season in what was a de-facto Championship game. Like Amherst, the Yellow Jackets are a very good defensive team; the allow just 66.4 points per game and force opponents to shoot just 40.8% from the field. On offense, they are led by the UAA Player of the Year in senior guard Ryan Clamage ‘19 (16.2 PPG, 6.6 REB/G), and Jacob Wittig ‘19 chips in with 10.6 PPG and neary five AST/G. They’re a much similar team to Amherst in respect to their defensive strength and uncertainty on offense, but head-to-head the Mammoths have the stronger offensive unit from top to bottom. They key will be limiting Clamage and keeping the Yellow Jackets out of the paint as they get most of their offensive from inside the arc in addition to their solid free throw percentage (73.3%).
Farmingdale State Rams (20-7, 16-4, Conference Champions)
Farmingdale State earned an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament via winning the Skyline Conference. The Rams were the number one seed headed into the tournament with an impressive 16-4 record in conference play, and have won ten consecutive games. This is a unit similar to Rosemont where they have the ability to put points on the board (85.2 PPG), but possess an average defense, allowing 75.2 PPG. Surprisingly, the Rams only shoot 45.7% as a team but hold opponents to just 41% from the field, which doesn’t quite correlate to their strong offensive numbers and average defensive numbers. Where they get into trouble on the defensive side is when they continuously foul opponents and send them to the free throw line, which happens quite often. Farmingdale State is lead by a trio of seniors in Matthew Graham ‘19 (15.9 PPG), George Riefenstahl ‘19 (14.4 PPG, 11.0 REB/G) and Ali Mableton ‘19 (12.0 PPG, 3.2 AST/G, 1.7 STL/G). Junior Ryan Kennedy ‘20 is lethal from deep, connecting at a 40.6% clip. Just like Rosemont and Rochester, Farmingdale State is a very good free throw shooting team, hitting over 76% of their shots from the line. If they end up meeting in the round of 32, Amherst will have to force the Rams to beat them with long two’s and limit the amount of free throws in order to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
#10 Hamilton (23-4, 7-3, Lost to #7 Amherst in
NESCAC Finals)
The Continentals have been a clear cut choice
to make the tourney since before week 1. With a preseason ranking of #9,
Hamilton has maintained their top-25 status throughout the season. This alone
ensured them entry into this year’s NCAA regionals. They have performed so
well, in fact, that they have earned themselves hosting rights for the first
two regional games.
Kena Gilmour is the best in the ‘CAC, but can he be the best in the dance?
How
They Got Here:
Hamilton was fairly even keel all year long.
They were poised for not only a NESCAC playoff run but an NCAA playoff run as
well, and now they are presented with that opportunity. Hamilton was
consistently successful all year long, all four of their losses coming to
NESCAC teams. They started their season running, winning their first 13
straight contests. Leading the scoring for the Continentals during this time
was Kena Gilmour. Gilmour was the leading scorer for Hamilton all year long and
helped to create a dynamic offense which helped them to such a good season.
After their hot start to the season, things got a little bit more shaky as they
lost two of their next five to Colby and Wesleyan. The Colby loss was seemingly
out of nowhere and was their first home loss of the year. After these two
losses the Continentals continued to roll, only losing once more to Middlebury,
garnering them the #2 seed in NESCAC play. After beating Colby in their
quarterfinal rematch, Hamilton had to opportunity to host the remainder of the
NESCAC playoff games after #1-seed Middlebury lost to #8-seed Tufts. Hamilton
was able to hold off Tufts, 89-85, in the semi-finals but would then have to
take on Amherst. The NESCAC championship was a close contest, but the Mammoths
were able to hold off Hamilton until the final buzzer, but hey, nothing wrong
with silver.
How
They Lose:
One thing is consistent in each of Hamilton’s
4 losses this season, their 3-point shooting. On the season, the Continentals
are shooting an impressive 35% from downtown as a team. When looking more
closely at each of their 4 losses, we can see that these games do not stack up
to those stats. In the NESCAC Final against Amherst, Hamilton put up 19 3s and
was only able to convert 3 of them, shooting at a 15.8% clip. In their
neck-and-neck battle with Midd at the end of the year where they lost by just
one point, Hamilton was just 6 for 21 from downtown. Against Colby they were
4-16 and against Wesleyan they were 6-26. Point being that when Hamilton
doesn’t shoot as they can, they put themselves in a much more difficult
position. If Hamilton is able to keep up the shooting numbers that they have
been putting up all year, they could make a serious run. If they have another
3-19 streak, it could be an early exit.
Peter Hoffmann had a fantastic career
The
Competition
Penn
State – Behrend (23-4, 14-4, AMCC Conference Champs)
Penn State – Behrend comes in with an
impressive record at the end of the season. The Lions were the #2 seed in The
Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference but were able to take down #1 La Roche
in their conference championship. Very similarly to Hamilton, Penn State’s only
losses have come from within their own conference. They have 3 All-Conference
players on their roster: Andy Niland and Mike Fischer both earned First Team
selections while Justin Gorney was selected to the second team. Niland is the
best shooter on the Lions, shooting nearly 43% from downtown and 93% at the
line so far this season. He is also the team leader, and all-time program
leader, in assists with just over 6 per game. Similarly, he only needs 7 more
3-pointers to become the all-time program leader in 3-pointers made. Against bad
teams Penn State – Behrend has shown that they are a lockdown defensive team,
at times winning by a 30 or 40 point margin. Hamilton should certainly have the
advantage in this game, but i wouldn’t sleep on the Lions.
Andy Niland poses a real shooting threat this weekend.
Keene
State (20-7, 13-3, Won LEC)
Keene State enters this competition riding a
12-game win streak. They easily defeated Western Connecticut State by a 27
point margin in the LEC semifinals to advance them to a championship game
against none other than Eastern Connecticut State. This was a much closer
competition as Keene State was down by 1 at the half but managed to pull out a
72-69 victory to capture the conference title. Some NESCAC fans should be
familiar with Keene State already as they have had 2 NESCAC opponents in their
schedule, including Hamilton. Early in the season Keene State went to
Middlebury and took a tough 93-88 loss. Keene State’s Ty Nichols was fantastic
for them against Midd, putting up 26/14/7 for a monstrous near triple-double.
Although his performance was noteworthy, it was still not enough to take down
the Panthers. Their game at Hamilton was close as well, an 85-80 loss in which
Ty Nichols once again lead Keene State in points. We’re beginning to see a
theme here, and its name is Ty Nichols. Nichols lead Keene State in points,
assists and rebounds, posting up a 27/5/7 clip on average. The Senior from
Springfield, Mass is the heart and soul of this team and was recently named D3
Player of the Week as well as Player of the Year in the Little East Conference.
The kid is a force to be reckoned with and has the talent to take this mediocre
Keene State team much further than they should go.
Moravian
(19-8, 10-4, Landmark Champions)
Rounding out our competitors we have our third
conference champ in Moravian. Moravian defeated Susquehanna in their conference
semis and then took down Drew in the finals to earn themselves a spot in the
NCAA playoffs. NESCAC fans got a chance to look at Moravian earlier this year
when they took on formerly #2 Williams. Moravian attempted a second-half
comeback in this contest but it was not quite enough as the Ephs won 81-72. The
leading scorer for Moravian in this contest was CJ Barnes who came off the
bench to put up 21PTS, including 4 triples. Lots of triples seems to be another
theme for Moravian. While their opponents have attempted 404 3-pointers against
Moravian, Moravian have more than doubled that by putting up 832 3-pointers
over their 27 games, that’s nearly 31 3s a game. While CJ Barnes is Moravian’s
best shooter, their best player is O’Neil Holder, who is leading the team in
PPG with 18.4 and rebounds with 6.6. Moravian is a clear-cut 3 and D team and
those can always be dangerous in a tournament setting. Catch them at the wrong
time and you could be going home early.
For Amherst and Hamilton, their basketball season is hardly over as the two teams will most certainly earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Before they take a stab at the Big Dance, however, the Mammoths and the Continentals will duke it out for the right to cement their status as NESCAC champions. The two teams played an exhilarating game earlier this month, with Hamilton narrowly escaping with a win on their home court. The Continentals have the home court advantage given the fact that they are the highest remaining seed, but the Mammoths have revenge on their minds and will come in confident they can leave New York with a win after taking down Wesleyan and Williams.
Overview
While there is no such thing as an easy game in the NESCAC, the Continentals have undoubtedly faced weaker opponents in the tournament than the Mammoths. In their semifinal victory over Tufts, Hamilton trailed at halftime but quickly erased the deficit and did not look back. Star player Kena Gilmour ‘20 struggled mightily (9 points, 2-9 from the field), but seniors Tim Doyle ’19 (18 points) and Andrew Groll ’19 (16 points) picked up the slack. Hamilton also received a substantial contribution from their bench players, tallying 29 points. The Continentals shot well from the field (51.7%) and repeatedly attacked the rim, registering an impressive 35 free throw attempts; however, they converted only 20 of those attempts (57.1%). Defensively, the Continentals limited the Jumbos to just 43.1% shooting, but they did allow them to bomb away from three and connect on 14 of their 28 attempts from beyond the arc. It seems as if the Continentals can’t get the entire squad to fire on all cylinders at the precise moment, yet fantastic individual performances by a couple of players per game is enough to keep adding to the win column. Individual performances will not be enough to knock off the stingiest defense in the ‘CAC, and Hamilton will need a more well-rounded performance if they want to secure their first ever NESCAC Championship.
Much like their football team, the Mammoths have a simple recipe for success: defense wins championships. This mantra was put on display against Williams, as Amherst secured their third win of the season against their archrival by limiting the Ephs to just 38.7% shooting and including 26.3% from downtown. The terrific trio of Bobby Casey ‘19, James Heskett ’19 and Kyle Scadlock ‘19 were stifled by the suffocating Mammoth defense, clanking shot after shot en route to a combined 14 for 42 shooting performance. Amherst didn’t have a fantastic offensive performance as a team on Saturday, but Grant Robinson ’21 single handedly willed his squad with a season-defining 32 points. The Mammoths did cash in at the free throw line, shooting 22-23 from the charity stripe. Fru Che had a quiet performance by his standards with just 10 points, but the sophomore has stepped up in big moments before and will look to help Amherst win their first NESCAC Championship since the 2014 season.
Hamilton X-Factor
Kena Gilmour ‘20
Who else can it possibly be in a moment like this? When he’s on, Gilmour is one of the most dynamic players in all of America; however, the probable NESCAC POY has struggled in the tournament thus far, shooting a paltry 32.1%. The Continentals cannot afford to have him struggle in their biggest game of the season to date, and Amherst’s relentless defensive pressure is not the most ideal matchup for Gilmour to bust out of his shooting woes (although he did tally 23 points in their regular season matchup). Hamilton must find ways to get their best player some easy buckets in order for him to get into the flow of the game and regain his confidence. They survived against Colby and Tufts, but if Gilmour fails to ignite the offense once again, Hamilton will very likely lose this contest.
Amherst X-Factor
Fru Che ‘21
I mentioned Che had a quiet performance against Williams, but in Amherst’s previous game against Wesleyan, the sophomore dropped a career-high 30 points. It was Robinson’s turn to carry the offense against the Ephs, but this game is critical for Che to get back on track. In their previous matchup with Hamilton, Che led the Mammoths with 18 points and knocked down four shots from three. Given Hamilton’s woes guarding the perimeter, Che should have plenty of looks to knock down some deep balls. Colby and Tufts had absolutely no problem tearing apart the Hamilton defense, so it’s critical that Che puts up some solid shooting numbers in order for the Mammoths to take home the championship.
Final Thoughts
These two teams are the exact opposite from one another, as Amherst likes to grind down its opponents with defense, while Hamilton seems perfectly content with its run-and-gun style of trying to outscore its opponents. In their regular season matchup, Hamilton won the pace-of-play battle and was able to put up 81 points on the highly touted Mammoth defense. They didn’t shoot particularly well at 42.4%, but they shot 21 free throws and converted 81% of those attempts, a bit of an anomaly for the Continentals. In contrast, Amherst only attempted eight free throws, and despite shooting at a higher field goal percentage than Hamilton, the Mammoths averaged a pedestrian 31.8% from beyond the arc against a team that has not guarded the deep ball well in recent games. This time around, I think Amherst is the better prepared team. They know they have to control the pace of the game, and have shut down two very good offensive opponents in Wesleyan and Williams on their way to this rematch. I do believe Gilmour will bust out of his mini slump and score north of 20 points, but Amherst will connect on more threes than they did in their last outing, and the defense will come up with some big stops late. The Continentals will have to wait another year to see if they can snag that first ever NESCAC Championship.
Amherst clearly has the momentum coming into this game and it’s theirs to lose. While nobody expected this game to be played at Hamilton several weeks ago or after the NESCAC seeding came out, each team now has an uphill battle to claim the conference championship. Williams has looked weak of late but should be healthy after a week off, giving James Heskett enough time to recover from his ankle injury. Additionally, maybe some time off is exactly what the Ephs needed, seeing some tough shooting performances from star guard Bobby Casey. In their quarterfinal victory over Trinity, it looks as if they finally figured something out: balance. During their three game losing streak to Bowdoin, Amherst, and Hamilton, Casey went 9-31 from three-point-range, not on par with his normal standards. He took a ridiculous amount of shots while uber-athlete and maybe the Ephs best weapon, Kyle Scadlock, was underutilized offensively. However, in their 88-77 win against Trinity last weekend, all five starters scored in double-digits and Scadlock finally entered the picture as an offensive threat. He only took five shots, making all of them, but executed well at the free throw line, scoring another 10 points there. Hopefully he is a bigger part of the Ephs’ game plan this weekend like during the 2017 playoff run where he emerged as a legitimate superstar before getting hurt last season. With a big and experienced starting lineup, this Williams team has unlimited potential, but needs to play up to as they are close to seeing their destined playoff run come to an end. In fact, they can hardly view their performance against Trinity as comforting as they were handed a gift of a first round matchup given their low seed. Trinity played well at the end of the year but didn’t have the talent of a fifth seed in the NESCAC and the Ephs took advantage of it. This will be the first real test for the Ephs to see if they’ve adjusted since their skid to end the regular season.
Amherst, on the other hand, has plenty of positives to look at heading into this game: They beat Williams at the end of the regular season, they have been consistent all season, and they haven’t had any injury issues of late. They did, however, lose to Hamilton in the final game of the regular season, losing the #1 seed in the NESCAC tournament, but could have an opportunity for redemption if they beat the Ephs. The Mammoths had a much more difficult first round playoff matchup than Williams, knocking off Wesleyan 63-56, led by a career performance from Fru Che who dropped 30 points. Grant Robinson and Che provide a lethal 1-2 attach for the Mammoths. The duo averages a combined 26 PPG, 9 REB/G, and 4 A/G. Eric Sellew also throws in over eight boards and 11 points per contest too, giving the Mammoths a three-headed offensive attack. Che poses the biggest threat to Williams, however, as the shooter-happy Eph team could be equalized by Che’s 37% efficiency from deep. Amherst also boasts the league’s best defense, allowing under 64 PPG to opponents while Williams is close behind at 65.4 PPG allowed.
Amherst X-Factor
C CJ Bachmann
The senior big man averages 6.7 PPG and 4.6 REB/G but was the key to the Mammoth victory the last time these two teams played. He dropped a double-double off the bench and along with Joseph Schneider, will need to shut down the powerful Williams lineup down low. In order for the Mammoths to have a chance, they will need to hold the rebounding advantage. Williams shoots the long ball better and Bachmann’s play will help keep the ball away from Bobby Casey and into the hands of Che who is Amherst’s most potent offensive threat.
Williams X-Factor
F Kyle Scadlock
I’ve always been a big fan of Scadlock and think that his multi-faceted game is almost impossible to defend. He has touch from anywhere on the floor and is athletic enough to post up down low and compete for boards. He has a way with the playoffs, often finding an extra gear in the limelight, and I can only hope that Coach App includes him heavily in their game plan. If Casey gets cold shooting, Scadlock and Heskett are the Ephs best shot to keep pace with the Amherst offense. Also, Scadlock is a rebounding presence that needs to match up with Eric Sellew and slow him down.
Final Thoughts
The last time these two teams met, Che, Robinson, and Sellew all scored in double-digits to lead the Mammoths to victory while CJ Bachmann and Garrett Day came off the bench to add a combined 24. Because so many players in the Eph lineup have a high ceiling for points, Amherst will need to see a similar shooting efficiency around 50% to take this game. The Ephs didn’t play poorly last time these teams met either, but were painfully outrebounded 44-33 on the night. Scadlock was the only player to collect seven boards while Amherst’s Bachmann had ten off the bench. These two talented teams should duke it out in a close contest, and I don’t see Amherst having such a lopsided defensive effort like they did before. Williams will narrow the gap on shooting percentage (they shot 41% FG compared to Amherst’s 50.8% FG last time) and ride on to the finals against Hamilton.
The best time of the year is here – playoff season, baby. Saturday is going to be an awesome day filled with awesome games that should be as exciting as ever. In fact, the lower seed beat the higher seed when the teams met in the regular season in three of the four first round matchups (with Williams vs. Trinity being the exception). Each of these teams will battle for the coveted automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament that is awarded to the winner of the NESCAC Championship, and it’s shaping up to be a very exciting tournament as always. The results of this tournament will have an impact on the NCAA Tournament field because the NESCAC could have anywhere from four to six teams in this year’s NCAA’s. If Colby and Wesleyan are able to steal a win or two (or even win the whole thing) then we could see some extra teams sneaking in. There’s still a lot left to play, so check out our previews for each of the quarterfinal matchups:
1. #25 Middlebury vs. 8. Tufts
Tyler Aronson and the Jumbos will have to make a little tournament magic happen if they want to pull off the upset
We start off with a very interesting matchup between Tufts and Middlebury. In their regular season matchup the Panthers traveled to Medford and were dropped on a game winning shot by Brennan Morris ’21, keeping the Jumbos in the playoff race. That game also took place a very long time ago – over a month, in fact. Middlebury is a very different team now than they were then, and the Jumbos are very, very young. The trio of Matt Folger ’20, Jack Farrell ’21, and Max Bosco ’21 are averaging a combined 46 points per game and they have been absolutely on fire for the Panthers when they’ve needed it. The Jumbos are very guard-heavy and have proved that they’re capable of getting hot, so this could be an intriguing matchup between two particularly young backcourts. It’ll also be very interesting to see what we get out of the battle down low because each of these teams boast outstanding big men. Tufts features a 6’8”, 230lb giant in Luke Rogers ’21 who hauls in rebounds at a high rate and scores better than just about any other big in the league. On the other side, Eric McCord ’19 isn’t a huge contributor scoring-wise, but he averages a league-best 9.9 rebounds per game and does an excellent job locking down opposing centers. Both of these guys had big games in their first meeting, so if one if them can do a better job defending the other this time around then their team will have a huge advantage. Middlebury has (a little) more experience and I truly do think they’re the better team in this one, so I’m going with them to move on to the semifinals next weekend.
Prediction: Middlebury 86, Tufts 77
2. #10 Hamilton vs. 7. Colby
I feel like I find myself saying this a lot but I think this could be the year for Hamilton. They’ve had an outstanding season and have looking simply dominant much of the way. Their success has earned them a home game in the first round and a rematch with one of the only three teams that beat them this season. When they met in late January the Mules were able to travel to New York and take down the Continentals on the back of Sam Jefferson ’20 who scored 29 points on 9-14 shooting including 6-10 from three-point range. Colby is a team who, similar to Tufts, is very young and has a very promising future ahead of them. The problem is that I’m not sure if they’re quite ready to compete with the experience that a team like Hamilton brings to the table. Hamilton’s top six leaders in minutes played this season are all juniors and seniors, and they’ve been terrific. Led by NESCAC Player of the Year favorite Kena Gilmour ’20, the Continentals have shot their way to first in the league in points per game second in field goal percentage during their outstanding 2018-2019 season. The Mules aren’t far behind (3rd in PPG, 5th in FG%), and they’ve had some of the hottest shooting streaks we’ve seen in the NESCAC this year. I like that Colby is young and they play like they have nothing to lose because they don’t and I think they’re going to be great in the near future. This is going to be a close game, but I think that Hamilton’s depth and experience will end up being too much for the youthful Mules.
Prediction: Hamilton 90, Colby 87
3. #11 Amherst vs. 6. Wesleyan
Austin Hutcherson hopes to lead a tournament run in just his second season
I think that out of all the first round matchups, this is my favorite. The Little Three rivals split their regular season meetings, but the Cardinals won the official conference meeting. Wesleyan is not a particularly deep team but they’ve got a few stars that have taken them a very long way. I’d honestly be shocked if Austin Hutcherson ’21 didn’t take home a Player of the Year trophy in one of the next two years, because he has been absolutely outstanding. The league leader in points per game (20.4) has had some incredible performances this season, most recently coming in the form of a season-high 37 points on 81.3% shooting while adding 9 rebounds as well. This guy is a total stud who can light anyone up on any given night, but in the first two meetings between these two teams Hutcherson hasn’t looked quite as impressive. He totaled 25 points and 7 rebounds in those two games combined, well under his regular numbers. He’s going to play the biggest role on the Wesleyan side because if he comes to play then they’ll be very hard to stop. Amherst on the other hand plays a deeper rotation of guys and they share the scoring a bit more evenly. There’s no doubt that Grant Robinson ’21 is their go-to guy, but they have a number of players that can step up when they need to. They’re no. 11 in the country for a reason and there’s never a year when they should be taken lightly. However, star power goes a very long way in this league and Wesleyan wins the battle there. I’m going with the upset in this one.
Prediction: Wesleyan 66, Amherst 62
4. #18 Williams vs. 5. Trinity
It doesn’t bring me any joy to say this, but I’m not very excited for this one. Williams dominated Trinity in their regular season meeting and I don’t see this one being any different. The Ephs boast three of the most prolific scorers in the league in James Heskett ’19, Bobby Casey ’19, and Kyle Scadlock ’19, and these guys have now had so much experience playing in the NESCAC and NCAA Tournament over the past three seasons. The fact that Williams ended up the number four spot is very sneaky, because I still think they might be the favorites to win the whole thing. Bobby Casey ’19 is very much a candidate to win Player of the Year with his 18.5PPG (3rd in the NESCAC), 4.6AST/G (1st in the NESCAC), and 5.3REB/G. We’ve said it time and time again, but this team has a lethal combination of size and shooting ability that is nearly impossible to stop. I’m a bit surprised that Trinity ended up at 6-4 and in the fifth spot, but I certainly owe them one. They had a much better season than I predicted and Donald Jorden, Jr. ’21 has emerged as one of the top forwards in the league. Jorden is actually 4th in the league in offensive rebounds per game, so the Ephs will have to be careful not to get lazy on the defensive glass. The Bantams have had an unpredictable season so there’s no question that they could come out and prove me wrong, but I just think that Williams is too good to lose this early. Their talent and experience is really unmatched and I see them making a very deep run. Somehow I think the 4-5 matchup is the worst out of all the first round games – I don’t think this game will be very close.
#19 Amherst (18-3, 5-2) @ #10 Williams (19-3,
6-2)
Amherst and Williams will battle it out in
Williamstown this weekend as 2 of the top teams in the country will collide to
see who can sit atop the NESCAC. Amherst enters this contests after having won
4 straight NESCAC contests. While Wesleyan was certainly able to give the
Mammoths a run for their money last weekend, their other 3 victories were quite
convincing. Amherst does a great job of spreading the ball around. Unlike many
teams, they don’t have a few dominant guys and a few role players to fill holes
but rather they have a complete roster where they are comfortable having any
combination of players on the floor. They will need this unpredictability this
weekend because the Williams squad they are facing is not too shabby
themselves. The big story last weekend was that Williams took only their 3rd
loss of the season in an overtime battle with Bowdoin. Looking at the stats I
think this game is somewhat of a fluke. Bowdoin shot like Brook Lopez from
three, hammering Williams left and right. I think that Williams will be able to
bounce back from this loss and finish out the season strong.
Score Prediction: #10 Williams 74 – #19
Amherst 68
Bowdoin (14-8, 3-5) @ Connecticut College
(7-15, 0-8)
Bowdoin enters this weekend on their high
horse after their overtime win against Williams helped boot them out of a
top-10 seed nationally. As I have previously mentioned, the Polar Bears were on
fire from 3, shooting 15-28 (53.6%) against Williams. Jack Simonds was the star
of the game, dropping 32 points on 6-10 from 3. David Reynolds was nothing if
not efficient, scoring 16 on 6/10 from the field and 4/7 from 3. If Bowdoin
could repeat this performance every game they would be a dominant force, but
that just isn’t realistic. That being said, they certainly aren’t playing a
Williams-caliber team in this one so I would expect those players to thrive
once again. There’s no two ways about it, Conn’s season has gotten rougher and
rougher as it has progressed. There are really no quality wins to write home
about and their trajectory does not seem as if there are any coming soon.
Senior David Labossiere has had another solid season, averaging over 18 PPG,
but does not have enough support to take down the other NESCAC teams. I would
say that Conn is tanking for a draft pick, but that’s just not how it works.
Score Prediction: Bowdoin 83 – Conn 69
Colby (15-7, 3-5) @ Wesleyan (15-7, 5-3)
The Mules might just shoot their way deep into the NESCAC playoffs.
Both of these teams have been down on their
luck in their last few NESCAC matchups. After an unexpected weekend in which
the Mules managed to take down two nationally ranked teams on the road, they
have since lost their last two games. To be fair to the Mules, they have had to
face the top two teams in the conference, and were heavy underdogs in their
last four games. Considering that fact, it really isn’t too bad at all that
they are 2-2 in their last 4. Wesleyan, on the other hand, had their run of
success much earlier in the season when they took down Midd, Hamilton and
Amherst. Since then the Cardinals are 2-3 in their last 5 NESCAC contests,
including 3 straight losses. This has all the makings of a very weird,
back-and-forth game. While on paper Wesleyan seems to have the better record
(in conference), I think this game is closer than it appears.
Score Prediction: Wesleyan 88 – Colby 85
Bates (7-15, 3-6) @ Trinity (15-7, 4-4)
The Bantams will have home court advantage in
this matchup as they host a Bates team that has been up and down all season. At
the beginning of the year it appeared as if we had underestimated the Bobcats
when they were able to win one of their first two NESCAC contests despite a
poor preseason. Since that time it seems as they have come back down to their
expectations, but still were able to grab conference wins against Conn and
Tufts. This will be Bates’ last conference game of the year so I would expect
them to put it all on the line for a shot at getting an 8-seed in the
conference tourney. Trinity had themselves a great two games last weekend which
launched them up in ‘CAC standings to a nice, safe 6th seed in the conference.
You hate to say it but a win against Conn at this point is just a given, but
their win against Wesleyan may have raised some eyes. That win suggests to me
that Trinity are not a team to be taken lightly, especially in a playoff
scenario. Another conference win here will really help the Bantams solidify
their playoff spot, and they have all the opportunity to get it.
Score Prediction: Trinity 74 – Bates 65
#8 Hamilton (19-2, 5-2) @ #10 Williams (19-3,
6-2)
The battle of the big dogs will go down this
Saturday as the two highest-ranked teams in the conference will go head-to-head
for the first time this season. Williams is lucky enough to have gotten the
home court advantage for this year as they will host the Continentals. Both of
these teams appear to be the obvious best 2 teams in the conference (no
disrespect to Midd, you guys are dangerous too). Kena Gilmour has been an
absolute animal for Hamilton this year, averaging nearly 20 PPG as well as
almost 6 REB/G. On the other side of the ball Williams has the always dangerous
Bobby Casey who is putting up an impressive 18/5/4.6 line so fat this season.
There is not too much to separate these two on paper, which should make it a
fun match to watch. Two high-quality, evenly matched teams atop the NESCAC is
great for the brand and should be great entertainment value overall. When it
comes to both NESCAC rankings and national rankings, this is an important game.
I will certainly be watching and you all should too.
Score Prediction: #8 Hamilton 86 – #10
Williams 82
Bowdoin (14-8, 3-5) @ Wesleyan (15-7, 5-3)
After a warm-up game against Conn, the Polar
Bears will head into Cardinal territory for their final NESCAC contest of the
year. Bowdoin will likely be riding a high after taking down Conn and will have
their eyes on taking down Wesleyan in order to secure a playoff spot. While
Wesleyan is certainly the favorite in this contest, Bowdoin’s take down of
Williams leaves them confident that they can take down anybody, and Wesleyan is
no exception. While Bowdoin may be in form, it is also a fact that Wesleyan is
a stronger team overall. They have more quality wins in conference and
obviously have a better record. While the cards are stacked in the Card’s favor
(I’m sorry), you can’t count Bowdoin out. It’s upset season and this game has
upset alert written all over it.
Score Prediction: Bowdoin 78 – Wesleyan 76
#19 Amherst (18-3, 5-2) @ Middlebury (17-5,
6-2)
For the moment, Midd sits atop the conference
and has their eye on that #1 seed heading into playoffs. The only problem for
the Panthers is the strength of schedule they will have to face finishing out
the season. Directly after Friday’s Game of the Week versus #8 Hamilton, Midd
will get right back into it on Saturday as they host another top-25 team in
Amherst. If there is any way to solidify yourself as top dog at the end of the
season it is to beat two ranked teams to end out the year. While this is what
all Panther fans are imagining, it is much easier said than done. Middlebury
has lost games against the likes of Tufts but then comes right back around to
easily take down a former top-10 seed in Williams. This tells us to things
about Midd: they are dangerous and can beat anyone, they are human and anyone
can beat them. They are not supposed to be at the top of the NESCAC ahead of 3
ranked teams, but they are. There’s a certain grind about them that I like and
you can see it on the court until the final buzzer. Amherst’s tough week gets
tougher after having to face #10 Williams they have to bus up to Vermont and
take on a red-hot Midd. While they off-the-court factors may not be in their
favor, Amherst has proven they have everything they need to take care of
business on the court. I think that Amherst will need to ride whatever energy
they have after facing Williams into this game. If it is a loss, play angry. If
it is a win play with confidence. This game is also make or break for their
bright, shiny national ranking. A loss here will likely kick them out of the top
25 and boost Midd right into it. I know that is something Mammoth fans would
not be happy to see.
Jack Farrell and the Panthers are starting to get it going in the stretch run of the NESCAC season.
Score Prediction: Middlebury 83 – #19 Amherst
77
Colby (15-7, 3-5) @ Connecticut College (7-15,
0-8)
While this game may seem fairly insignificant
at face value, in reality it could have a huge impact on how the bottom of the
playoff seeds shake out. Colby needs to take this gimme win and run with it for
their playoff sakes. As was mentioned in a previous NBN article, one more win
should launch the Mules into playoff position, and this is their surefire way
to secure that win. Additionally, if the Mules are able to capture another win
before this point it will help their seeding out tremendously and possibly
avoid a first round matchup with the likes of Williams or Hamilton. The key for
the Mules all season has been Sam Jefferson. When he is hot there is nobody
that Colby can’t beat. He lead the charge that week when they took down Amherst
and Hamilton and he is going to need to lead their final playoff push. For Conn
this is a final opportunity to not go completely defeated in conference. It has
been another rough season for the Camels and I’m sure they won’t be all too
upset to see it draw to a close.
