Category: Game Preview

Wild, Wild West(ern Mass): Williamstown Regional Preview

Williamstown Regional Preview

#19 Williams (20-6, 6-4, at-large bid)

The NESCAC is always one of the best basketball conferences in Division III and the Ephs are always one of the best teams in that conference. This year was no exception as Williams finished 20-6, earning themselves a no. 19 national ranking and at least two potential home games in the NCAA Tournament. Senior forward James Heskett won NESCAC Player of the Year last season and classmate Bobby Casey was likely the first runner up for this year’s award behind Hamilton’s Kena Gilmour. These guys have about as much talent as you’ll find at the D3 level and they’re not looking to go home empty-handed in their third straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

How They Got Here

Kyle Scadlock has been a huge part of the three-headed monster for Williams

It’s been an interesting year for the Williams College Ephs. They spent the first half of the season on fire and holding on to a no. 2 national ranking. The trio of Bobby Casey ’19, James Heskett ’19, and Kyle Scadlock ’19 looked absolutely unstoppable and talented big man Matt Karpowicz ’20 was the perfect complement. Unfortunately things got a little rocky in the middle of the season when the Ephs were faced with some depth issues. They finished 4-5 in their last 9 regular season games, earning them the 4thseed in the NESCAC Tournament. They took care of Trinity in the first round but fell to Amherst in the semifinals – the third loss of the year to their arch nemesis. A number of quality wins coupled with a strong strength of schedule was enough for the committee to select Williams as a host for the first two rounds where they (as always) look like the favorites to advance to the Sweet 16.

How They Lose

The only problem I see for the Ephs – and it’s a big one – is depth. Williams boasts one of the strongest starting fives in the nation and they have ridden those five guys all the way to the NCAA Tournament. In their six losses this year combined, the bench has accounted for 67 total points – about 11 points per game coming from non-starters. However, 28 of those points came in the Hamilton game, so in the other five losses the bench accounted for just 39 points. This simply won’t cut it on the national stage where they’ll be playing teams who go 8 or 9 guys deep. The Ephs need more out of Mickey Babek ’20, Marcos Soto ’19, and Michael Kempton ’19, who are really the only three guys they use off the bench. If these guys step up, they’ll go a very long way. If they don’t, it’ll be an earlier trip home than Williams is hoping for.

The Competition

Husson (17-10, 11-3, NAC Champions)

The Eagles come out of the North Atlantic Conference where they dominated all year. Having ten losses certainly doesn’t look great out of a tournament team, but Husson played a surprisingly tough non-conference schedule to make up for their cupcake conference opponents. They’ve actually matched up with NESCAC teams four times already this season – a win versus Bates and losses against Trinity, Colby, and Bowdoin. These results bode well for the Ephs who are 4-1 this season against those very same teams. The Eagles have been led this year by Justin Martin, who averages over 15 points and 9 rebounds per game. The 6’6” senior is on his way to earning a third consecutive all-conference appearance and does an excellent job bringing size and shooting ability to help spread the court. There’s no doubt that Williams is the favorite in this game, but don’t count out the Eagles who will scrap and claw right to the finish.

Plattsburgh State (20-6, 14-4, at-large bid)

Aside from the Ephs there’s no question that the Cardinals are the most likely team to come out of this region. They already have a win against Middlebury under their belt and they played Wesleyan very closely, so they’re no strangers to NESCAC opponents. Plattsburgh actually fell to Brockport in the SUNYAC semifinals, but was able to secure an at-large berth to make their second consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance. Jonathan Patron recently received his second straight SUNYAC Player of the Year award, leading the league with 23.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. He has already posted a number of jaw dropping box scores, including a 32-point, 20-rebound effort early in the year. In fact, Patron has recorded a double-double in 15 of the team’s 26 games this season. It’s easy to see that this guy is a total stud and he’s capable of taking any team deep into the postseason. Patron is a force to be reckoned with and he’s here to make sure that everyone has heard of Plattsburgh State.

Gwynedd Mercy (19-8, 9-3, Atlantic East Champions)

The Griffins are definitely the biggest mystery in this region. The Atlantic East isn’t known for being a basketball powerhouse, but Gwynedd Mercy seemed to have some pretty competitive games. At their holiday tournament in December they lost to Tufts and beat Bates in two tightly contested affairs so they, too, have some experience with the NESCAC. The trio of Rich Dunham, Courtney Cubbage, and Clayton Wolfe do the heavy lifting, accounting for the vast majority of the team’s scoring and rebounding. None of those three guys are over 6’1” and the Griffins don’t really use anyone over 6’5” in their regular rotation, so size could be an issue for them. I don’t see Gwynedd Mercy making a lot of noise in this region, but once March rolls around we might as well throw every stat out the window.

Midd Madness: First Round NCAA Preview

Middlebury (18-7, 7-3), Lost in Quarterfinals to Tufts)

The Panthers looked like a definite NCAA tournament team after catching fire at the end of the regular season and clinching the NESCAC regular season title. However, after an early exit in the conference tournament to Tufts, they found themselves on the bubble of the at-large teams, sneaking their way in (which was no surprise) despite falling out of the top-25. 

They surprised many teams this season with the play of their sophomore guards, who are the diamond in the rough and big surprise of the Middlebury 2019 season. While the play of Jack Farrell, Max Bosco, and Griffin Kornaker bode well for the Panthers’ future, they have an immediate chance to make an impact on this year’s run to a national championship. Despite a few ugly losses this season (Tufts twice and Plattsburgh) they still built up enough of a resume with wins against Williams and Hamilton to punch their ticket for the tenth time in the last 12 years to the dance. 

How They Got Here:

Jack Farrell’s shooting is a key to a Panther victory.

After losing All-American guard Jack Daly ’18, All-American Matt St. Amour ’17, and All-NESCAC Jake Brown ’17 to graduation the last two years, it seemed that some of Midd’s magic from the past few years was gone. While those studs haven’t been replaced, the sophomore guards have ushered in a new era of Panther basketball and now have a strong foundation for years to come. Along with Bosco (25 G, 8 GS, 15.2 PPG, 35% 3-PT, 3.0 A/G), Farrell (25 G, 25 GS, 16.2 PPG, 35.9% 3-PT, 4.7 REB/G, 3.8 A/G), and Kornaker (25 G, 17 GS, 7.4 PPG, 3.7 A/G), the Panthers also boast one of the more athletic players in the conference in Matt Folger. Like Farrell, Folger started every contest in 2019 and average 15 PPG and 8.9 boards per contest. He has the most potential on the team and has been dominant each of the past two seasons. His season scoring high is 28 points and his defensive best is 16 boards. He can undoubtedly take control of any game but also had a few duds in some key losses (four points in a 80-77 L to Wesleyan and nine points in a 85-76 loss to Tufts). Their SF, Hilal Dahleh, had a quiet senior campaign, staying healthy and starting all but one game and put up 6.8 PPG in just 23 minutes. Eric McCord is the big man and a steady force down low, averaging 9.5 PPG and 9.9 REB/G, and a physical presence that should keep in check the other teams in their regional.

Folger is the most dangerous team on the floor this weekend.

How They Lose:

Midd turned in to a high-scoring team part way through the year and needs to have some shooting efficiency to knock out their competition. They play with a small lineup (three guards and a forward that often plays on the outside) and could get beat if they fail to make their way inside on offense given an opponent with elite perimeter defense. Inconsistency was the Panthers’ biggest foe this season, beating great teams and losing to poor ones. I chalk a lot of that trend up to inexperience which shouldn’t affect them as much in the tournament as they will likely play against teams with less postseason experience than them. Having said that, if they shoot 17% from deep like they did in the playoffs against Tufts, they will lose.

The Competition

#14 Nichols College Bison (25-2, 15-1, Commonwealth Coast Conference Champs)

Nichols obviously had an incredible season up to this point, losing only to Gordon and Salisbury. Gordon received votes in the last D3hoops poll and Salisbury was ranked at the time of their game against Nichols. Against NESCAC opponents, Nichols was 3-0 this year, knocking off Trinity, Tufts, and Wesleyan all by at least six points, showing that while they didn’t face many ranked opponents, they can play with teams that gave Midd a tough time. They have three double-digit scorers, with Marcos Echevarria leading the charge with 20.4 PPG and average nearly 90 PPG as a team. This will likely be a high scoring first round matchup that is by no means a cake walk for the Panthers.

Nichols is the on-paper favorite in this regional.

Emerson College Lions (16-11, 12-4, NEWMAC Champions)

It was a pretty confusing season for to analyze from the Lions as they had some brutal losses and impressive wins. They lost to both Amherst (85-62) and Tufts (87-70) by wide margins and got crushed towards the end of the regular season by #12 MIT. However, they also destroyed MIT midway through the season 84-65. After a high number of losses, the only way for Emerson to get into the NCAA tournament was to win their conference tournament which they accomplished without beating MIT, giving them an easy road to a ring. Upperclassmen guards Jack O’Connor and Geoffrey Gray both average 20.3 PPG and have the power to take this team to the promise land in any game and could be a dangerous opponent in the second round and an especially tough matchup for Midd’s young ball-handlers. 

Rowan University Prof (21-6, 13-5, NJAC Champs)

Rowan does not have a particularly strong strength of schedule but did knock off Keene State that beat Midd in a midweek contest. They have a pretty balanced lineup with four players averaging over ten PPG but nobody averaging over 15.1 or any players averaging 6.4 REB/G. How exactly did this Rowan team end up hosting over Nichols? Well, my guess is that Nichols didn’t have the facilities to host so as the quasi-two seed in this pod of the bracket, Rowan gets the cake. I believe that home field will undoubtedly give Rowan an advantage in their game(s) this weekend as they’ll likely get a reasonable crowd. They had a margin of victory under nine points this season on average, a high number of assists (15.9 per game), and a low number of rebounds per contest (39.4 per game). They could easily lose to Emerson if the Lions bring their A-game, however, they definitely will reap the benefits of some home court advantage.

Synopsis:

Midd got screwed here by the NCAA selection committee. Not only do they have to go to New Jersey when it the regional should’ve just been in Mass., but they play the best team out of the three opponents in the first round. In reality, it doesn’t matter that they have a tough first round matchup since they’d have to face Nichols in the second round anyways, so the way I see it, if they win their first round matchup, they would be heavily favored to make it to the Sweet-16. However, at this point I’d say its 50-50 that they make it past Nichols. If they have a normal shooting day from their guards and Folger on Friday I think they make it out of this pod. 

Let’s Get Ready to Rumble: NESCAC Championship Final Preview


For Amherst and Hamilton, their basketball season is hardly over as the two teams will most certainly earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Before they take a stab at the Big Dance, however, the Mammoths and the Continentals will duke it out for the right to cement their status as NESCAC champions. The two teams played an exhilarating game earlier this month, with Hamilton narrowly escaping with a win on their home court. The Continentals have the home court advantage given the fact that they are the highest remaining seed, but the Mammoths have revenge on their minds and will come in confident they can leave New York with a win after taking down Wesleyan and Williams.

Overview

While there is no such thing as an easy game in the NESCAC, the Continentals have undoubtedly faced weaker opponents in the tournament than the Mammoths. In their semifinal victory over Tufts, Hamilton trailed at halftime but quickly erased the deficit and did not look back. Star player Kena Gilmour ‘20 struggled mightily (9 points, 2-9 from the field), but seniors Tim Doyle ’19 (18 points) and Andrew Groll ’19 (16 points) picked up the slack. Hamilton also received a substantial contribution from their bench players, tallying 29 points. The Continentals shot well from the field (51.7%) and repeatedly attacked the rim, registering an impressive 35 free throw attempts; however, they converted only 20 of those attempts (57.1%). Defensively, the Continentals limited the Jumbos to just 43.1% shooting, but they did allow them to bomb away from three and connect on 14 of their 28 attempts from beyond the arc. It seems as if the Continentals can’t get the entire squad to fire on all cylinders at the precise moment, yet fantastic individual performances by a couple of players per game is enough to keep adding to the win column. Individual performances will not be enough to knock off the stingiest defense in the ‘CAC, and Hamilton will need a more well-rounded performance if they want to secure their first ever NESCAC Championship.

Much like their football team, the Mammoths have a simple recipe for success: defense wins championships. This mantra was put on display against Williams, as Amherst secured their third win of the season against their archrival by limiting the Ephs to just 38.7% shooting and including 26.3% from downtown. The terrific trio of Bobby Casey ‘19, James Heskett ’19 and Kyle Scadlock ‘19 were stifled by the suffocating Mammoth defense, clanking shot after shot en route to a combined 14 for 42 shooting performance. Amherst didn’t have a fantastic offensive performance as a team on Saturday, but Grant Robinson ’21 single handedly willed his squad with a season-defining 32 points. The Mammoths did cash in at the free throw line, shooting 22-23 from the charity stripe. Fru Che had a quiet performance by his standards with just 10 points, but the sophomore has stepped up in big moments before and will look to help Amherst win their first NESCAC Championship since the 2014 season.

Hamilton X-Factor

Kena Gilmour ‘20

Who else can it possibly be in a moment like this? When he’s on, Gilmour is one of the most dynamic players in all of America; however, the probable NESCAC POY has struggled in the tournament thus far, shooting a paltry 32.1%. The Continentals cannot afford to have him struggle in their biggest game of the season to date, and Amherst’s relentless defensive pressure is not the most ideal matchup for Gilmour to bust out of his shooting woes (although he did tally 23 points in their regular season matchup). Hamilton must find ways to get their best player some easy buckets in order for him to get into the flow of the game and regain his confidence. They survived against Colby and Tufts, but if Gilmour fails to ignite the offense once again, Hamilton will very likely lose this contest.

Amherst X-Factor

Fru Che ‘21

I mentioned Che had a quiet performance against Williams, but in Amherst’s previous game against Wesleyan, the sophomore dropped a career-high 30 points. It was Robinson’s turn to carry the offense against the Ephs, but this game is critical for Che to get back on track. In their previous matchup with Hamilton, Che led the Mammoths with 18 points and knocked down four shots from three. Given Hamilton’s woes guarding the perimeter, Che should have plenty of looks to knock down some deep balls. Colby and Tufts had absolutely no problem tearing apart the Hamilton defense, so it’s critical that Che puts up some solid shooting numbers in order for the Mammoths to take home the championship.

Final Thoughts

These two teams are the exact opposite from one another, as Amherst likes to grind down its opponents with defense, while Hamilton seems perfectly content with its run-and-gun style of trying to outscore its opponents. In their regular season matchup, Hamilton won the pace-of-play battle and was able to put up 81 points on the highly touted Mammoth defense. They didn’t shoot particularly well at 42.4%, but they shot 21 free throws and converted 81% of those attempts, a bit of an anomaly for the Continentals. In contrast, Amherst only attempted eight free throws, and despite shooting at a higher field goal percentage than Hamilton, the Mammoths averaged a pedestrian 31.8% from beyond the arc against a team that has not guarded the deep ball well in recent games. This time around, I think Amherst is the better prepared team. They know they have to control the pace of the game, and have shut down two very good offensive opponents in Wesleyan and Williams on their way to this rematch. I do believe Gilmour will bust out of his mini slump and score north of 20 points, but Amherst will connect on more threes than they did in their last outing, and the defense will come up with some big stops late. The Continentals will have to wait another year to see if they can snag that first ever NESCAC Championship.

Final Score: Amherst 77 – Hamilton 73

Purple Rain: Amherst v. Williams Semifinal Preview

Overview

Amherst clearly has the momentum coming into this game and it’s theirs to lose. While nobody expected this game to be played at Hamilton several weeks ago or after the NESCAC seeding came out, each team now has an uphill battle to claim the conference championship. Williams has looked weak of late but should be healthy after a week off, giving James Heskett enough time to recover from his ankle injury. Additionally, maybe some time off is exactly what the Ephs needed, seeing some tough shooting performances from star guard Bobby Casey. In their quarterfinal victory over Trinity, it looks as if they finally figured something out: balance. During their three game losing streak to Bowdoin, Amherst, and Hamilton, Casey went 9-31 from three-point-range, not on par with his normal standards. He took a ridiculous amount of shots while uber-athlete and maybe the Ephs best weapon, Kyle Scadlock, was underutilized offensively. However, in their 88-77 win against Trinity last weekend, all five starters scored in double-digits and Scadlock finally entered the picture as an offensive threat. He only took five shots, making all of them, but executed well at the free throw line, scoring another 10 points there. Hopefully he is a bigger part of the Ephs’ game plan this weekend like during the 2017 playoff run where he emerged as a legitimate superstar before getting hurt last season. With a big and experienced starting lineup, this Williams team has unlimited potential, but needs to play up to as they are close to seeing their destined playoff run come to an end. In fact, they can hardly view their performance against Trinity as comforting as they were handed a gift of a first round matchup given their low seed. Trinity played well at the end of the year but didn’t have the talent of a fifth seed in the NESCAC and the Ephs took advantage of it. This will be the first real test for the Ephs to see if they’ve adjusted since their skid to end the regular season.

Amherst, on the other hand, has plenty of positives to look at heading into this game: They beat Williams at the end of the regular season, they have been consistent all season, and they haven’t had any injury issues of late. They did, however, lose to Hamilton in the final game of the regular season, losing the #1 seed in the NESCAC tournament, but could have an opportunity for redemption if they beat the Ephs. The Mammoths had a much more difficult first round playoff matchup than Williams, knocking off Wesleyan 63-56, led by a career performance from Fru Che who dropped 30 points. Grant Robinson and Che provide a lethal 1-2 attach for the Mammoths. The duo averages a combined 26 PPG, 9 REB/G, and 4 A/G. Eric Sellew also throws in over eight boards and 11 points per contest too, giving the Mammoths a three-headed offensive attack. Che poses the biggest threat to Williams, however, as the shooter-happy Eph team could be equalized by Che’s 37% efficiency from deep. Amherst also boasts the league’s best defense, allowing under 64 PPG to opponents while Williams is close behind at 65.4 PPG allowed. 

Amherst X-Factor

C CJ Bachmann

The senior big man averages 6.7 PPG and 4.6 REB/G but was the key to the Mammoth victory the last time these two teams played. He dropped a double-double off the bench and along with Joseph Schneider, will need to shut down the powerful Williams lineup down low. In order for the Mammoths to have a chance, they will need to hold the rebounding advantage. Williams shoots the long ball better and Bachmann’s play will help keep the ball away from Bobby Casey and into the hands of Che who is Amherst’s most potent offensive threat. 

Williams X-Factor

F Kyle Scadlock

I’ve always been a big fan of Scadlock and think that his multi-faceted game is almost impossible to defend. He has touch from anywhere on the floor and is athletic enough to post up down low and compete for boards. He has a way with the playoffs, often finding an extra gear in the limelight, and I can only hope that Coach App includes him heavily in their game plan. If Casey gets cold shooting, Scadlock and Heskett are the Ephs best shot to keep pace with the Amherst offense. Also, Scadlock is a rebounding presence that needs to match up with Eric Sellew and slow him down.

Final Thoughts

The last time these two teams met, Che, Robinson, and Sellew all scored in double-digits to lead the Mammoths to victory while CJ Bachmann and Garrett Day came off the bench to add a combined 24. Because so many players in the Eph lineup have a high ceiling for points, Amherst will need to see a similar shooting efficiency around 50% to take this game. The Ephs didn’t play poorly last time these teams met either, but were painfully outrebounded 44-33 on the night. Scadlock was the only player to collect seven boards while Amherst’s Bachmann had ten off the bench. These two talented teams should duke it out in a close contest, and I don’t see Amherst having such a lopsided defensive effort like they did before. Williams will narrow the gap on shooting percentage (they shot 41% FG compared to Amherst’s 50.8% FG last time) and ride on to the finals against Hamilton.

Writer’s Pick: Williams 78 – Amherst 73

Can the Underdog pull it off? Tufts @ Hamilton Semifinal Preview

Tufts pulled off what some consider the impossible last weekend. The Jumbos made the tumultuous trek up to Vermont and defeated top seeded Middlebury. The Jumbos were led by freshman guard, who went to my high school, Tyler Aronson. Aronson played an all around complete game, proving to the conference why he will be an elite player for years to come. Similar to what happened to UVA last year during March Madness, Tufts was not intimidated by playing the top seed. The Jumbos looked poised and cruised to a nine point victory. Tufts’ opponent this weekend, Hamilton, should be weary about playing Tufts. It was about three weeks ago when Hamilton squeaked out a four point win against the Jumbos. I consider three weeks an eternity ago. Like Jim Mora famously muttered, “Playoffs?!” the playoffs in any sport have proved to be a different beast. Considering how competitive the league is, which Tufts displayed this past weekend, Hamilton needs to come out of the gates hot. The Continentals need to prove why they’re hosting the game— boasting an earned cockiness and swagger. Hamilton beat Williams and lost by a point to Midd this month. Kena Gilmour continues to dominate the scoring sheet. Gilmour has proven to be the league’s elite scorer this year. Even though basketball is a team game, I am excited to see the individual match up of Aronson versus Gilmour this weekend. Let’s take an in depth preview of the game.

Eric Savage needs to move a mountain to bring the Jumbos some rings.

Overview

Tufts is one of those teams no one wants to play in the playoffs. They’re simply a team with momentum. You know those teams. The ‘07 Giants, who barely earned a wildcard, went on to defeat the 18-0 Patriots. The Blackhawks when Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews were in their primes. And most famously, the 1980 Men’s Olympic hockey team. Their run was quite a ‘miracle.’ Tufts, based on their regular season performance, doesn’t deserve to be in this spot. Their 4-6 conference record barely squeaked them into the playoffs. Then they go and beat a one seed. That’s sports. Every game starts 0-0. Previous games don’t matter; it’s what about what you give today. Although at first glance it’s a shock for Tufts to have defeated Midd, it’s terribly surprising. Tufts has a young squad led by veteran coach Bob Sheldon. Coach Sheldon has been around the block a few times. He has experience in big games and knows how to create a game plan that once featured big man Tom Palleschi and now is centered around guard Tyler Aronson. I will get to Aronson in the next section, but now I want to focus on Tufts as a team. Their general statistics don’t jump out at me. They shoot 43% from the field and around 32% from deep. What is particularly striking is that they have a 66% free throw percentage. I don’t want to jinx anything, but having a number like that may come back to bite them in a big game. The Jumbos on average get outrebounded per game as well. Was their victory against Midd an anomaly? Maybe. I don’t want to say anything further, however, since playoffs are so much about momentum. Frankly, numbers get thrown out the window at this point.

Hamilton has five legitimate weapons in their starting lineup.

Hamilton has been a powerhouse all year long. They’re that team who you know is very good, but for some reason, they don’t garner the same respect as a Williams or Midd. One reason is that Hamilton is so far away. In the NEW ENGLAND Small College Athletic Conference, an upstate New York school outside of Utica is out of the picture. The Continentals have proven year in and year that they’re a very good basketball team. This year is no different. Hamilton posted a solid 7-3 conference record—finishing nearly undefeated at home (11-1). I am going to take one more shot at upstate New York here. Tufts playing Hamilton is like the Florida Gators traveling to play the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. That ride is far even if you’re not playing the day of travel. Regardless of home court advantage, Hamilton has proven that defense wins games. They allow on average 70 points per game, one of the best in the league. They’re tough inside too with a six rebound advantage per game. Hamilton plays a tough brand of basketball with a potent inside force and strong scoring led by Kena Gilmour.

Tufts X-Factor

G Tyler Aronson

Tyler Aronson ’22

Aronson, a Holliston, Mass, native and my former classmate at Rivers, has been the guy for Tufts all season. He has averaged 9.4 points this season and posted solid assists and turnover numbers. I do not think Aronson’s stats jump off the page. He is not the guy that will get you twenty-five, ten, and five on a daily basis. He is, however, one of the smartest basketball players I have seen. I want the ball in his hand with the game on the line. His handle is one of the best in the league and is a smart player. He will not throw away the game with a stupid turnover. I am excited to watch him develop into one of the league’s best these next few years. He is not huge like Wesleyan’s Austin Hutcherson, but he’s quick and bouncy. He can seriously fly. If Tufts wins the game, I guarantee Aronson will have a breakout game.

Hamilton X-Factor

G Kena Gilmour

Kena Gilmour ’20

In life people overcomplicate things. They think in order to sound smart they have to sometimes evade a logical answers. Think back to all those multiple choice exams. What if instead you picked the answer that was a bit more wordy and complex, you picked the one that simply answered the question in a well-constructed sentence? Makes you wonder. Kena Gilmour is the obvious choice for Hamilton’s x-factor. Sure he has great teammates, but he has proven that he is one of the best in the league scoring wise. Aronson can use Gilmour as a model for his own progression. Gilmour needs to start off hot to show that he is the alpha right now in the league. He needs to assert himself right away. He and Hamilton can’t let Tufts have a glimmer of hope. He needs to crush any hopes of a Tufts’ miracle from the jump.

Final thoughts

Aronson has come out of nowhere to put Tufts in the Semis.

This game is definitely an interesting matchup. Every single statistic I look at points in Hamilton’s favor. The Continentals have a better offense, defense, home court advantage, etc. You get the general picture. Something doesn’t sit right by writing Tufts off immediately. Aronson is a young, confident player. He has young guys around him looking to make a difference. There’s no reason to pick Tufts except for the fact that they’re coming off a huge win at Midd. It’s like I am sitting in that multiple choice exam where the right answer is in front of me, but there is another option that mentions something from a textbook reading from the first week of the semester. I am split; however, I cannot go against the simple answer. Hamilton will win this game.

Hamilton 87 Tufts 79

One and Done?: NESCAC Championship Quarterfinal Previews

NESCAC Championship Quarterfinal Previews

The best time of the year is here – playoff season, baby. Saturday is going to be an awesome day filled with awesome games that should be as exciting as ever. In fact, the lower seed beat the higher seed when the teams met in the regular season in three of the four first round matchups (with Williams vs. Trinity being the exception). Each of these teams will battle for the coveted automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament that is awarded to the winner of the NESCAC Championship, and it’s shaping up to be a very exciting tournament as always. The results of this tournament will have an impact on the NCAA Tournament field because the NESCAC could have anywhere from four to six teams in this year’s NCAA’s. If Colby and Wesleyan are able to steal a win or two (or even win the whole thing) then we could see some extra teams sneaking in. There’s still a lot left to play, so check out our previews for each of the quarterfinal matchups:

1. #25 Middlebury vs. 8. Tufts

Tyler Aronson and the Jumbos will have to make a little tournament magic happen if they want to pull off the upset

We start off with a very interesting matchup between Tufts and Middlebury. In their regular season matchup the Panthers traveled to Medford and were dropped on a game winning shot by Brennan Morris ’21, keeping the Jumbos in the playoff race. That game also took place a very long time ago – over a month, in fact. Middlebury is a very different team now than they were then, and the Jumbos are very, very young. The trio of Matt Folger ’20, Jack Farrell ’21, and Max Bosco ’21 are averaging a combined 46 points per game and they have been absolutely on fire for the Panthers when they’ve needed it. The Jumbos are very guard-heavy and have proved that they’re capable of getting hot, so this could be an intriguing matchup between two particularly young backcourts. It’ll also be very interesting to see what we get out of the battle down low because each of these teams boast outstanding big men. Tufts features a 6’8”, 230lb giant in Luke Rogers ’21 who hauls in rebounds at a high rate and scores better than just about any other big in the league. On the other side, Eric McCord ’19 isn’t a huge contributor scoring-wise, but he averages a league-best 9.9 rebounds per game and does an excellent job locking down opposing centers. Both of these guys had big games in their first meeting, so if one if them can do a better job defending the other this time around then their team will have a huge advantage. Middlebury has (a little) more experience and I truly do think they’re the better team in this one, so I’m going with them to move on to the semifinals next weekend.

Prediction: Middlebury 86, Tufts 77

2. #10 Hamilton vs. 7. Colby

I feel like I find myself saying this a lot but I think this could be the year for Hamilton. They’ve had an outstanding season and have looking simply dominant much of the way. Their success has earned them a home game in the first round and a rematch with one of the only three teams that beat them this season. When they met in late January the Mules were able to travel to New York and take down the Continentals on the back of Sam Jefferson ’20 who scored 29 points on 9-14 shooting including 6-10 from three-point range. Colby is a team who, similar to Tufts, is very young and has a very promising future ahead of them. The problem is that I’m not sure if they’re quite ready to compete with the experience that a team like Hamilton brings to the table. Hamilton’s top six leaders in minutes played this season are all juniors and seniors, and they’ve been terrific. Led by NESCAC Player of the Year favorite Kena Gilmour ’20, the Continentals have shot their way to first in the league in points per game second in field goal percentage during their outstanding 2018-2019 season. The Mules aren’t far behind (3rd in PPG, 5th in FG%), and they’ve had some of the hottest shooting streaks we’ve seen in the NESCAC this year. I like that Colby is young and they play like they have nothing to lose because they don’t and I think they’re going to be great in the near future. This is going to be a close game, but I think that Hamilton’s depth and experience will end up being too much for the youthful Mules.

Prediction: Hamilton 90, Colby 87

3. #11 Amherst vs. 6. Wesleyan

Austin Hutcherson hopes to lead a tournament run in just his second season 

I think that out of all the first round matchups, this is my favorite. The Little Three rivals split their regular season meetings, but the Cardinals won the official conference meeting. Wesleyan is not a particularly deep team but they’ve got a few stars that have taken them a very long way. I’d honestly be shocked if Austin Hutcherson ’21 didn’t take home a Player of the Year trophy in one of the next two years, because he has been absolutely outstanding. The league leader in points per game (20.4) has had some incredible performances this season, most recently coming in the form of a season-high 37 points on 81.3% shooting while adding 9 rebounds as well. This guy is a total stud who can light anyone up on any given night, but in the first two meetings between these two teams Hutcherson hasn’t looked quite as impressive. He totaled 25 points and 7 rebounds in those two games combined, well under his regular numbers. He’s going to play the biggest role on the Wesleyan side because if he comes to play then they’ll be very hard to stop. Amherst on the other hand plays a deeper rotation of guys and they share the scoring a bit more evenly. There’s no doubt that Grant Robinson ’21 is their go-to guy, but they have a number of players that can step up when they need to. They’re no. 11 in the country for a reason and there’s never a year when they should be taken lightly. However, star power goes a very long way in this league and Wesleyan wins the battle there. I’m going with the upset in this one.

Prediction: Wesleyan 66, Amherst 62

4. #18 Williams vs. 5. Trinity

It doesn’t bring me any joy to say this, but I’m not very excited for this one. Williams dominated Trinity in their regular season meeting and I don’t see this one being any different. The Ephs boast three of the most prolific scorers in the league in James Heskett ’19, Bobby Casey ’19, and Kyle Scadlock ’19, and these guys have now had so much experience playing in the NESCAC and NCAA Tournament over the past three seasons. The fact that Williams ended up the number four spot is very sneaky, because I still think they might be the favorites to win the whole thing. Bobby Casey ’19 is very much a candidate to win Player of the Year with his 18.5PPG (3rd in the NESCAC), 4.6AST/G (1st in the NESCAC), and 5.3REB/G. We’ve said it time and time again, but this team has a lethal combination of size and shooting ability that is nearly impossible to stop. I’m a bit surprised that Trinity ended up at 6-4 and in the fifth spot, but I certainly owe them one. They had a much better season than I predicted and Donald Jorden, Jr. ’21 has emerged as one of the top forwards in the league. Jorden is actually 4th in the league in offensive rebounds per game, so the Ephs will have to be careful not to get lazy on the defensive glass. The Bantams have had an unpredictable season so there’s no question that they could come out and prove me wrong, but I just think that Williams is too good to lose this early. Their talent and experience is really unmatched and I see them making a very deep run. Somehow I think the 4-5 matchup is the worst out of all the first round games – I don’t think this game will be very close.

Prediction: Williams 83, Trinity 61

Clash of the Titans: Game of the Week Preview 2/8 

Game of the Week Preview 2/8

We’ve got a battle of big guns to open the final (and biggest) weekend of NESCAC basketball this season, as the Hamilton Continentals look to knock off the high-flying Middlebury Panthers. With so much chaos surrounding the top five seeds, this game will be sure to provide some clarity into the situation. Middlebury currently occupies the number one spot in the standings due to their head-to-head win against Williams combined with have one more win than both Amherst and Hamilton (with one more game being played). The Continentals are in fourth, but a win on Friday would potentially vault them into the top two with games against Williams and Amherst remaining on the schedule. If you like offense, this is the game for you: both teams are top two in PPG and top four in FG% (I said this last week and Colby put up a dud in the second half, but second time’s the charm or something like that); at the same time, both teams rank top three in terms of defensive PPG and defensive 3PFG%, so something has to give here. With so much on the line for both teams, I expect the stars to come out and shine on the hardwood Friday night, and the result of this game will certainly be a fantastic segway into Saturday’s slate of conference games.

Jack Farrell ‘21 will look to lead the Panthers to their second NESCAC regular season championship in three years

Overview

Middlebury looked a bit shaky for the better part of the first 25 minutes of Saturday’s game against Colby, but the defense stymied Colby’s offensive weapons in the last 15 minutes and Jack Farrell ‘21 and Matt Fogler ‘20 hit some big shots as the Panthers eventually pulled away to secure a 81-68 victory. The defensive intensity the Panthers have recently displayed is quite an impressive turnaround from earlier this season, as they’ve allowed just under 56 PPG in their last four NESCAC matchups.  Middlebury was able to hold Bowdoin’s David Reynolds ‘20 to a season-low seven points on 3-14 shooting, and then limited Colby’s Sam Jefferson ‘20 to 16 points on 2-11 shooting from beyond the arc; the ability to contain the opposing team’s star player will be key on Friday as Hamilton not only boasts the best offensive unit in the ‘CAC, but arguably the front-runner for NESCAC POY in guard Kena Gilmour ‘20. The recent emergence of big man Eric McCord ‘19 only complicates matters for Hamilton’s defense, as they now have to worry about an inside presence on top of the Panther’s plethora of shooters. Farrell, Fogler, and Max Bosco ‘21, are all prolific scorers, and Midd gets plenty of help on the bench from guys like Griffin Kornaker ‘21 (8.4 PPG, 3.1 AST/G in conference play). This unit is on a roll on both sides of the floor and the Panthers will be ready come Friday to protect home court.

The Continentals needed a big bounce-back weekend after flopping against Colby two Saturdays ago, and they did so with wins against Bates and Tufts. Against the Bobcats, Hamilton was led by (you guessed it) Kena Gilmour with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists. Peter Hoffmann ‘19 played exceptionally well, chipping in with 22 points and 10 rebounds, and Michael Grassey ‘19 capped The Big 3’s performance with 17 points and 11 rebounds of his own. The Continentals knocked down 16 triples and held Bates to just 25.9% from downtown combined with forcing 18 turnovers. The Tufts game was a slightly different story, as Hamilton was down 1 with 53 seconds left before Grassey’s layup gave the Continentals the lead with 32 seconds to play. Hamilton held off the upset-minded Jumbos despite Gilmour’s uncharacteristic poor performance (4 points, 2-10 shooting), as Hoffmann scored 22 and the bench players combined for a rather impressive 31 points. Hamilton’s defense has been rather pedestrian as of late, allowing over 81 PPG. Against Middlebury’s high-scoring unit, the Continentals will need to clamp down and run Midd’s shooters off the three point line, because the last thing they want to do is get in a shootout with the league’s best 3-point shooting teams.

Middlebury X – Factor

Eric McCord ‘19

Guys like Farrell, Bosco, and Folger are the sexy choices, but I’m opting for the big bruiser down low. On a team full of snipers, McCord is that big body center who crashes the boards and does the dirty work inside. He’s averaging a career-high 9.2 PPG to go along with 10.2 REB/G and was a monumental part of the Panthers’ last two conference wins. Against Bowdoin, McCord registered his 8th double-double of the season, chipping in 10 points to go along with 11 rebounds. The following day, the senior scored a team-high 19 points and went 8-10 from the field in Middlebury’s road win against upset-minded Colby. McCord will have his hands full dealing with Hamilton big man Andrew Knoll ‘19, but if he can replicate his performances from this past weekend, the Panthers will have a good chance to knock off Hamilton.

Hamilton X – Factor

Peter Hoffmann ‘19

Hoffmann has had a relatively disappointing senior campaign as he’s averaging a career low 12.1 PPG. His play was subpar in Hamilton’s two conference losses, as Hoffmann finished with a mere 8 points in each of the Continentals’ defeats to Wesleyan and Colby; however, the 6’6’’ G/F has shown flashes of brilliance during his past two games against Bates and Tufts, scoring a combined 43 points and grabbing 15 rebounds. His 22 point performance at Tufts was instrumental in the Continentals’ victory and kept them in the hunt for the #1 overall seed come postseason tournament time. I cannot underestimate the need for a guy like Hoffmann to have a large impact against the Panthers, and I think he’ll continue his recent success into this matchup of titans.

Final Thoughts

I’ve gone back and forth with my decision like a college football recruit before signing day (only I’m not being offered thousands of dollars of cash to make the choice) and I can’t say I’m 100% committed to one side. I will say that I don’t think home court matters a whole bunch in this league; we’ve seen plenty of teams upset at home this season, including Williams at the hands of Middlebury, Colby beating both Hamilton and Amherst, Bowdoin beating Williams, Trinity beating Wesleyan, etc. Both teams possess dynamic offenses and solid defenses capable of getting stops at the right moments. Despite Hamilton’s 19-2 record, they haven’t played a NESCAC team situated in current the top 5 with the exception of Wesleyan, whereas Middlebury has the advantage of already playing Williams on top of Wesleyan. Hamilton’s loss to Colby, coupled with close calls against Trinity and Tufts, is an indicator that this team isn’t quite as dominant as I thought they would be at the start of this season. Or maybe, it’s just a case of a team playing down to its competition. Despite all of this, I’m going to side with the Continentals and Kena Gilmour. I believe Gilmour, who should be hungry to cement his status as the league’s best player after laying an egg against Tufts, will take over this game. I expect help from the likes of Grassey, Hoffmann, and McCord, but Gilmour will be the catalyst that wills the Continentals to a massive road win and knocks Middlebury off the throne.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 78 – Middlebury 74

Get Ready for a Barnburner: Game of the Week Preview 2/1

Game of the Week Preview 2/1

Two of the hottest teams in the NESCAC will face off Saturday, as the Middlebury Panthers will take on the Colby Mules at Wadsworth Gymnasium. The Panthers are on a three-game winning streak, having convincingly knocked off mighty Williams before annihilating the Bantams this past Saturday. The Mules are enjoying a three-game winning streak of their own, and their last two road upsets against Amherst and Hamilton have people talking that this team might be a giant-killer as we progress further into the season. Both teams rank in the top four teams in the NESCAC in 3PFG% and PPG, so there’s sure to be some fireworks on display. A Panther win and they keep pace with Wesleyan and Amherst in the conference standings, while still in reach of WIlliams. Conversely, another Colby upset and the Mules will have essentially clinched a top eight seed for the postseason tournament. Needless to say, there’s a lot of the line for both teams in what should be a dog-fight that could come down to the wire.

Overview

The Panthers are an offensive juggernaut, and opposing defenses are still having trouble figuring out the trio of Jack Farrell, Matt Folger, and Max Bosco. All three rank in the top 12 in the NESCAC in PPG and command an offense than leads the NESCAC in scoring at 84.7 PPG; in fact, no other NESCAC team is averaging 80 PPG in conference play. The Panthers’ ball movement is exceptional (2nd in AST/G), they rebound at a high rate (3rd in offensive REB/G, 4th in defensive REB/G) and they average under 10 turnovers per contest. Simply put, this team does not beat itself, and Colby’s defense will have its hands full trying to disrupt Middlebury’s well-oiled machine of an offense. On the defensive end, the Panthers seem average, but recent performances against Williams and Trinity suggest this team might have turned the corner. Against the Ephs, Middlebury held their potent shooters to just 36.2% from the field and an eye-opening 10% from beyond the arc. They followed up that performance with annihilation of Trinity, where the Panthers allowed 38 points. Yes, you read that right – 38 points in a college basketball game. I realize Trinity has one of the worst offensive teams in the ‘CAC, but allowing a mere 38 points (22.4% from the field) against a conference opponent is extremely impressive. If they continue this type of defensive intensity come Saturday, the Panthers will walk out of Wadsworth Gymnasium with a big-time win.

Noah Tyson ’22 has made an immediate impact as a first-year

The Mules like to bombard their opponents from deep (an absurd 677 attempts from three on the season) and are the only NESCAC team to have attempted over 200 three pointers thus far in conference game – the next closest being Middlebury at 148 attempts. They shoot close to 41% as a team from downtown, and what’s more impressive is the Mules do not have a single senior who plays significant minutes. Leading the way is Sam Jefferson ‘20 (18.6 PPG, 44.1% 3PFG), Matt Hanna ‘21 (14.3 PPG, 41.7% 3PFG), and a slew of shooters all capable of knocking down the deep ball. Colby opts for a starting lineup featuring five guards instead of inserting a true center; this might be the main reason why they have a negative rebounding margin, but the strategy seems to have paid off against the likes of Amherst and Hamilton. On defense, the Mules are less impressive, ranking in the bottom half of points allowed/game and defensive 3PFG%. Similarly to Middlebury, however, Colby played much better on defense against Amherst and Hamilton. The Mammoths shot just 11.8% from deep, and the Continentals weren’t much better at 25% from three.

Middlebury X – Factor

Max Bosco ‘21

Bosco has been an integral part of Middlebury’s success over the course of the season, leading the Panthers in 3PFG%. In the past three weeks, the sophomore has elevated his game to another level; in a non-conference game against Widener, Bosco exploded for 27 points, and followed that up with a season-defining performance against Bates, where he scored 28 points and dished out five assists. After another solid performance in Middlebury’s close loss to Tufts, Bosco was inserted into the starting five in favor of Griffin Kornaker ‘21; he hasn’t looked back, and has Middlebury looking like a dangerous team come postseason time.  Middlebury knows it will get offensive production from the likes of Jack Farrell and Matt Folger, but Bosco needs to extend his hot shooting streak if the Panthers want to escape Waterville with a win.

Colby X – Factor

Sam Jefferson ‘20

Jefferson is tied for 4th in the NESCAC in PPG, and the junior only needs an inch of space to make defenders pay. He’s averaging an absurd 27.3 PPG over his last three contests, and single-handedly willed his squad to back-to-back road upsets against Amherst and Hamilton. He shot 50% from deep against the two NESCAC teams and went 17/20 from the charity stripe, showing Jefferson’s capability to burn you from long range or take it to the hole and get to the line. The outcome of the game will most likely hinge on Jefferson’s performance; the Mules are 9-1 when Jefferson scores 20+ points, including 3-0 in conference play. In their conference losses against Bates, Bowdoin and Trinity, he averaged a mere 12.3 points and shot 36.1% from the field. The Mules will definitely need some help to accompany Jefferson on Saturday, but he has to have another Amherst/Hamilton-esque performance if the Mules want to keep the winning streak alive.

Final Thoughts

I’m not a betting man, but I would expect a ton of points in Saturday’s game. Despite the recent defensive resurgence for both squads, the offenses should have plenty of space to knock down shots. Colby’s wins against Amherst and Hamilton are undoubtedly impressive, and they should have every reason to think they can do it again, this time in front of their home fans. Still, I have to side with the team with the better overall talent. The Panthers have the more refined set of shooters and have proven they can win in a multitude of ways; Colby is too reliant on the three ball and I think Middlebury will be well-prepared to guard Jefferson and Colby’s other offensive weapons. In what should be an exhilarating game, give me the Panthers to snag a hard-fought road win and stay in contention for a top seed in the NESCAC posteason tournament.

Writer’s Pick: Middlebury 88 – Colby 80

Looking for a Pacesetter: Game of the Week 1/25

Game of the Week Preview

This is an interesting weekend in NESCAC basketball because if you look at the slate of games, you have a feeling that you could confidently pick anywhere from 7 to 9 of the 9 games correctly this weekend. Nearly all of the games feature a team towards the top of the standings against a team towards the bottom of the standings. The great thing about this conference is that we’re likely to be surprised by more than one result this weekend. Tufts is a total wild card, and you really don’t know what you’re going to get out of the Maine schools because a lot of times they’ll randomly shock you. We’ve put out previews for 8 of the 9 games so far, but Friday’s game between Hamilton and Bowdoin was big enough in our minds to earn Game of the Week honors. Now we can present a closer look at the huge matchup in upstate New York:

Overview

Mark Lutz has been a valuable contributor off the bench for Hamilton

Hamilton comes into the game on a mini two-game winning streak after suffering their first loss of the season to Wesleyan. They’ve looked every bit the team they were at the start of the year in these past two games so it appears that their trip to Middletown was a mere hiccup. The Continentals currently lead the NESCAC averaging 89.1 points per game while shooting 49.2% from the field, second to only Williams. In the loss to Wesleyan they shot a season-low 35.9%, so it’s easy to see why they finally had to put one in the loss column. None of their starters are below 6’4” so they do a good job rebounding on both ends of the floor. The key for Hamilton is to keep the pace of the game at the speed they want it. They’re a team that scores a lot of points and shoot at a very high rate, so a faster pace certainly tips the balance their way. They also have a bit more depth than Bowdoin, with talented players like Spencer Kendall ’21, Mark Lutz ’20, and Sayo Denloye ’20 coming off the bench. If they can keep the points coming and make this one a shootout I don’t see Bowdoin being able to keep up with their firepower.

David Reynolds is going to have to have one of his classic big games if they want to compete with the Continentals

The Polar Bears travel to Clinton having won three in a row since their consecutive conference losses to Tufts and Trinity. They were just able to snag a crucial win at Colby to keep their postseason hopes still very alive. It’s no secret that Bowdoin is very much a two-headed monster with David Reynolds ’20 and Jack Simonds ’19 who are 2nd and 7th in the NESCAC, respectively. They either take turns in the spotlight or simply share it instead – they’ve accounted for 12 combined 20-point games and 4 combined 30-point games. It’s clear who’s doing the shooting, but stopping them is easier said than done. The nice thing for opponents is that if you are able to stop the two of them, you’ve pretty much won the game. The Polar Bears rely so heavily on their dynamic duo that they really don’t have many other viable scoring options. Zavier Rucker ’21 and Hugh O’Neil ’19 have each had their moments, but haven’t showed much consistency. Bowdoin isn’t a low-scoring team per se, but their scoring numbers have been relatively pedestrian to date so it is certainly in their best interest to keep the game at a pace they can keep up with. If this game gets into the upper-80s or 90s then they won’t stand a chance.

Hamilton X-Factor

Peter Hoffmann ’19

If the Continentals want to stay competitive with the top teams in the NESCAC, they’ll need strong efforts from guys in supporting roles. They can’t ask Kena Gilmour to go out there every night and single-handedly keep them in the game, and I think Hoffmann is a guy who has all the right tools to step up as we move forward. He was on a tear at the start of the season, scoring 18 points in the first game of the season and consistently putting up 12-16 points per game. However, his scoring output took a hit once conference play started, and he netted just 4 and 8 points against Trinity and Wesleyan, respectively. Luckily he was able to get in on the blowout victory over Conn College, dropping 15 points in just 21 minutes of action. As they progress Hoffmann will have to be able to do a little bit of scoring, with Gilmour and Michael Grassey doing the majority of the work. He’s also got a big frame at 6’6” and 210 pounds so he can help contribute to Hamilton’s dominance on the glass as well as block the occasional shot. If Hoffmann can get going again then the Continentals will be a lot to handle with all the other weapons they have in their lineup.

Bowdoin X-Factor

Zavier Rucker ’21

Rucker has been doing a fine job as facilitator for the Polar Bears, turning the ball over at a low rate and coming in at 3rd in the conference with 4.1 assists per game. He’s also got a bit of size for a point guard and combined with his athletic ability he has given a good effort to help rebound since Bowdoin places 3rd to last in rebounds per game. Rucker finds himself in a similar role to Hoffmann: he is clearly the team’s third scoring option so he’ll have to be selective with his shots and efficient when he does shoot. He isn’t a guy who is often going to be in isolation or taking contested fade aways, but because he’s on a team with Jack Simonds and David Reynolds (who require a lot of attention), he’s going to find himself a decent amount of good looks. It’s almost as if Rucker is forced to be the smartest guy on the team – he can’t just take shots at will because they already have two guys that do that, and do it well. Rucker has to have the discipline to know that really the only shots he should be taking are high percentage ones, and that those shots will come if he continues to help set up his teammates the way he has been. There’s no question that a lot is being asked of him, but if Rucker can be the smartest guy on the court, Bowdoin always has a great chance to win.

Final Thoughts

There are obviously some themes presenting themselves here, but I’ll try to lay things out as overtly as possible. Hamilton is the deeper and (slightly) more talented team, but Bowdoin has two guys who are capable of putting up huge numbers on any given night, so they’ll surely be able to compete. If you haven’t figured out that pace is going to be the key to the game then you should probably make your way back to the beginning of the article because I don’t think I can harp on it enough. Bowdoin has talent and if they can keep this game close then they’ve got a real shot at winning, but if they try and play at Hamilton’s pace then they won’t be able to keep up. I think they’ll hang around for a little while, but I think the Continentals will be able to speed things up just enough to run away with this one.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 95 – Bowdoin 83

Starsky and Hutch(erson) Solve the Case of NESCAC Teams: 1/19 Game of the Week

Game of the Week Preview

A week changes a lot in college basketball. Prior to last Friday, both Amherst and Hamilton were riding high with undefeated conference records. Hamilton was ranked top ten in the nation. Both teams, however, got “Hutcherson’ed”. Wesleyan’s sophomore superstar Austin Hutcherson unleashed himself at the expense of Hamilton and Amherst. Hutcherson put up thirty-two against Hamilton, and beat Amherst the next day on a game winner. Sound familiar, Amherst fans? If not, refer back to Nathan Krill’s, of Wesleyan, shot against you guys last season to send you guys home. Wesleyan, therefore, has shot up the power rankings—showing the league that it’s Williams and Wesleyan at one and two. As of right now, the third position in the conference is up for grabs.

Michael Grassey needs to step up this weekend as a reliable second option to Gilmour

Amherst and Hamilton are led by veteran coaches, who know how to make critical decisions down the stretch. Who will step up in the clutch? Hamilton star Kena Gilmour only put up fifteen against the Cardinals. In a big game like that, I predicted that he would match Hutcherson bucket for bucket. As the game progressed, though, Hutcherson showed that he and the big man from Williams are the two prime contenders for league MVP. As for Amherst, Grant Robinson’s must be getting close to a herniated disk in his lower back. He has carried Amherst all season long in the scoring department. The early season loss for is beneficial for both teams in my opinion. These are talented teams, but in order to be the best in an ultra competitive conference, they must address their weaknesses no matter how small they are. If a team’s winning, it’s easy to sweep under the rug a weakness that may not be visible. Getting hit in the mouth, in contrast, will always force you to look yourself in the mirror, and immediately address areas to improve.

X-Factors:

Hamilton: Kena Gilmour

Gilmour is one of the most talented, creative scorers in the league. While Hutcherson may have shown up Gilmour last Friday, I don’t doubt that the game was an anomaly for him. Gilmour can flat out score whether it be on the perimeter, slashing, or in transition. He still leads the league in points per game, albeit only by 0.1 over Hutcherson. What I believed bothered Gilmour last Friday was Wesleyan’s defense. Wesleyan’s Coach Reilly has always been known to put an extremely athletic team on the floor. Switching on all screens is something that Wesleyan can do because one through five can guard the opponent’s one through five. I still remember the 2017 Eastern Conference Finals where it seemed like 5’ 9” Isaiah Thomas would switch onto Kevin Love in the post, or concrete-footed Kelly Olynyk would get switched onto Kyrie Irving at the point. Brad Stevens, no matter how smart he looked, seemed to get played by Ty Lue (ironic, right)? Nevertheless, Amherst couldn’t exploit the switch-happy Cardinals. Gilmour had to deal with a longer Hutcherson or the wingspan of Jordan James. That game was the first test of the season for Hamilton. They lost to a very comparable Wesleyan team. Amherst will be no less talented than Wesleyan. Amherst has great coaching and talented players; they may not have Wesleyan’s athleticism, but they play great individual defense. Gilmour has to explode for at least twenty to win it for Hamilton.

Amherst: Grant Robinson

As stated in the introduction, Grant Robinson has been carrying Amherst offensively all season long. Robinson averages about fifteen points per game. None of his teammates are close to him in scoring. Robinson also shoots the ball at an efficient percentage, shooting at almost fifty percent per game. Robinson’s efficient not only in the field, but at the line as well. He shoots at 93% from the line, which is Steve Nash like numbers. He also leads the league in steals. Robinson can’t do it alone, but I picked him over his other teammates because he must score to give his team a shot at winning. Sure Eric Sellew or Fru Che could go off for fifteen or twenty points a piece. A counterpoint to that argument is the following: as seen in the Wesleyan game, all the attention has to be on Robinson to get those guys going. If Robinson’s having an off night, the defensive scheme against Amherst could be switched to giving Sellew or Che more attention. There’s no way these guys have the offense, even combined, to carry Amherst to victory without a strong showing from Robinson. As seen all year, Grant Robinson has to be the guy in order for Amherst to come away with a win.

Final thoughts:

Both teams are at critical junctures of their seasons. Winning the league title is not over by any means. Wesleyan simply woke them up. Stars didn’t perform down the stretch for Hamilton; Amherst has relied too heavily on one player. I give the edge to Hamilton here because your best player having an off night against one of the best defenses in the country is more easily treated than relying on one guy to score every possession. I’m going Hamilton in this one.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 73, Amherst 70