It’s Only Getting Better: Weekend Preview 10/12

Before we get down to it I just wanted to update everyone on the current standings for our writers picking the winners of every game. We’ve been fairly successful, although we still haven’t quite reached the exciting part of the year. Ryan is still the only one to have correctly predicted the final score of any game, as he picked Amherst 27-13 over Bates in Week 1. There’s still a lot of football left to play so we’ve got plenty more to come, but this is where we’re at as of now:

Matt Karpowicz: 16-4
Haven Cutko: 16-4
Ryan Moralejo: 16-4
Cameron Carlson: 15-5
Spencer Smead: 14-6

Colby @ Middlebury, 1pm, Middlebury, VT

This weekend’s slate of games does not offer a ton of intrigue, and it doesn’t help that it includes this matchup of the hottest team in the league playing probably the coldest. Colby was the one CBB team to not finish within a touchdown of their opponent last week in a shutout loss against Williams. Colby’s defense, led by LB Marcus Bullard ’21 who is second in the league in tackles, actually held up pretty well. Only Middlebury has held the Ephs offense to fewer points this season and they forced Maimaron and company to go 2 of 9 on third down. Unfortunately, the offense could not reward their defense’s commendable play and failed to cash in on an advantage in time of possession. The Mules did not turn the ball over, but punted five times and missed two field goals. That’s just extremely uninspiring football. They will need to do better than 237 yards of total offense and especially focus on converting third downs if they expect to have a chance against a strong Middlebury defense. 

The strange thing about Midd’s wild win over Amherst last week was that both teams had clear opportunities deep in enemy territory to just kick a field goal and win, but neither of them could do it. Middlebury is obviously happy being undefeated no matter how they get there, but they have to be thankful that a traditionally-executing Amherst team decided to outdo Midd’s late game miscues with one of their own and help hand the Panthers the win. Middlebury has gotten by this year with strong all-around play more than big names, but RB Alex Maldijan ’23 deserves recognition for coming in as a freshman and putting up 125 yards and 2 TDs in the biggest game of his college career. He currently leads the NESCAC in rushing and will be a big part of Midd’s success for the next few years. Expect him to continue his success against a run defense that allowed 227 yards on the ground last weekend. QB Will Jernigan ’21 has also enjoyed a nice season so far; he made up for a big interception in the first overtime last week by leading the game winning TD drive in the second. Unless the Colby offense wakes up in Vermont on Saturday, don’t expect a close one.

SS: Middlebury 31, Colby 6 
HC: Middlebury 28, Colby 10 
MK: Middlebury 28, Colby 14
CC: Middlebury 35, Colby 10
RM: Middlebury 33, Colby 10

Writers’ Pick: Middlebury

Trinity @ Bates, 1pm, Lewiston, ME

Expect Bates to come out fired up for this one. They’re in the dirty Lew coming off their best offensive performance of the season in a close loss to Tufts, who allowed 20 fewer points to Trinity in week one than they did to the Bobcats. We finally got to see what QB Brendan Costa ’21 can do, as he completed 19 of 28 passes with a touchdown and also ran for 62 yards on the ground. RB Christian Sanfilippo ’21 made the most of his carries, getting 6 for 11 yards…with three touchdowns. Props to Christian, because you’d be hard pressed to find a league where the guy second in rushing touchdowns is 36th in yards. Fullback numbers at their finest! We will see if Bates’ performance is a fluke when they meet a Bantam defense allowing the fewest yards per game in the league. Trinity is also the only team to allow fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground, led by their strong linebacker unit of Sean Smerczynski ‘20, Brian Casagrande ‘22, and Daniel Negron ‘20. Look for guys like DE Jimmy Christiano ‘21 and S Matt McCarthy ‘21 to be making plays on Saturday as they have all season. 

It doesn’t make a lot of sense that Trinity is only 2-2 given that they have dominated in many of the game’s biggest statistics as always. QB Seamus Lambert ‘22 leads the league in passing yards and is tied for the lead in touchdowns, showing that this offense is still as potent as any. On top of that, the Bantams still top the NESCAC in points and yards per game. Bates is also last in pass defense, and that doesn’t bode well coming into a matchup with the best receiving corps in the league. So while Bates may feel like they have a better chance than usual to beat Trinity for the first time since 1975, these cats need to understand that Trinity has been a few turnovers and penalties away from leading the pack as they almost always do. In addition, it’s looking like Trinity’s sophomores are forming the core of the team. Lambert, Casagrande, Devante Reid ’22, and others have a lot of football ahead of them, so don’t expect the Bantams to fall off very far from their usual dominance. Bates has reason to be feeling good about this weekend, but they just haven’t been consistent enough for this to be the year they snap the streak.

SS: Trinity 28, Bates 13
HC: Trinity 35, Bates 13
MK: Trinity 48, Bates 10
CC: Trinity 52, Bates 6
RM: Trinity 44, Bates 16

Writers’ Pick: Trinity

Bowdoin @ Amherst, 1pm, Amherst, MA 

We’re still in the middle part of the season before the best teams and the worst teams start to play each other, and that leaves us with ho-hum matchups like this one. Both teams are coming off games in which a win was very much within reach. Amherst had a late lead and then squandered opportunities in crunch time to beat Middlebury in a classic, while Bowdoin opened some eyes by coming within a touchdown of undefeated Wesleyan. Polar Bears RB Nate Richam-Odoi ‘20 once again carried the offense, accounting for 177 of the team’s 282 total yards. He will need to have a similarly huge performance if Bowdoin wants to have any chance in this game. On the other hand, QB Austin McCrum ’21 has yet to really get going this season and that has really limited Bowdoin’s offensive capability. Amherst’s defense is likely going to focus on stuffing the talented Richam-Odoi, so McCrum should have some opportunities to connect with guys like Greg Olson ‘21 and Bo Millett ‘21 against a pass defense that’s surprisingly second to last in the league. Unfortunately for Bowdoin, their defense may have an even taller task this weekend as the unit that allows the most yards per game will need to figure out how to stop the lethal combo of Ollie Eberth and James O’Regan. 

Amherst has not been a terribly exciting team this season and they err more towards the middle of the pack in most statistical categories, but they make up for it by playing relatively mistake-free football. They are always disciplined and well-coached, so it was surprising to see them let the biggest game of the season slip away as they did last weekend. Nonetheless, we cannot ignore that they were that close to beating the championship front runner, so we have to assume that they will come out firing on their home turf and let Eberth go to work behind a traditionally strong O-line. DL Joe Kelly ’21 has stepped up and done a great job filling the void left by Andrew Yamin; he currently leads the league in solo tackles and sacks. He will help control Richam-Odoi and force Bowdoin to engage their pass game a bit more. I think Bowdoin’s close game last week exposed Wesleyan’s weaknesses more than it did Bowdoin’s strengths. Expect the Mammoths to get back on track at home.

SS: Amherst 28, Bowdoin 10
HC: Amherst 27, Bowdoin 7 
MK: Amherst 41, Bowdoin 6 
CC: Amherst 35, Bowdoin 6
RM: Amherst 27, Bowdoin 7

Writers’ Pick: Amherst

Hamilton @ Williams, 2pm, Williamstown, MA

Williams has looked sharp since their opening week loss at Middlebury, winning the first three games of a five-game stretch in which they are home four times. It’s too bad that they don’t get another crack at Middlebury, because this is a team with the talent to run the table and definitely the chance to beat the Panthers in a future matchup. Alas, all the Ephs can do is take care of business and hope Midd falters. This week they face a Hamilton team that definitely looks improved, but still in their own tier above the CBB teams and below the teams competing for a title every year. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Hamilton did keep up with Trinity on the scoreboard until late, but Kenny Gray ’20 completed fewer than half his passes and RB David Kagan ’20 fell way off from his usual production this season and only managed 18 yards on 14 carries. That’s not going to get it done against the league’s top scoring defense. Given that Hamilton only managed 10 points against Wesleyan and that Williams shut out Colby last week, it’s hard to feel good about their offense on Saturday unless WR Joe Schmidt ’20 comes back and puts up big numbers. 

Williams’ offense did not have one of their better weeks last week, but you can’t blame Coach Raymond for once again taking a run-heavy approach a week after they totaled nearly 400 yards on the ground the week before. They wore Colby down with RBs Dan Vaughn ’22 and Joel Nicholas ’23 each getting 13 carries and averaging 8.5 and 7.1 yards on each carry, respectively. This offensive strategy has gotten Williams wins so far and it keeps Bobby Maimaron safe. Additionally, establishing the run game will open up holes for WR Frank Stola, who is in the OPOY running and leads the NESCAC in receiving yards and touchdowns. While Hamilton looks to be more competitive with non-CBB opponents thus far, their offense has not shown enough promise for anyone to feel good about their prospects against an Ephs defense allowing only 8.8 points per game. Williams has made a habit of finishing in the top 3 without a ring lately, and this season could be looking like more of the same. They could make a great case for the NESCAC to offer postseason play, but that’s a discussion for another day. 

SS: Williams 35, Hamilton 27
HC: Williams 31, Hamilton 10
MK: Williams 31, Hamilton 14 
CC: Williams 31, Hamilton 14
RM: Williams 37, Hamilton 20

Writers’ Pick: Williams

Tufts @ Wesleyan, 6pm, Middletown, CT

It’s fitting that the rare NESCAC night game is also our Game of the Week. The excitement of this game stems from the fact that includes probably the league’s two most perplexing teams thus far. Tufts has been wildly inconsistent, beating Trinity and playing Amherst close but also getting smoked by Williams and barely holding off a late game rally by Bates last weekend. Wesleyan is 4-0, but they have only played the league’s four worst teams and they did not do themselves any favors by only beating Bowdoin by a touchdown (the game was tied with 6 minutes left). That makes this game a tough one to pick- we don’t yet know what the result is when Wesleyan plays a good game against a good team. Another offensive weapon did emerge for the Cardinals, as RB Glenn Smith ’21 scampered for 108 yards and a big touchdown on a day where the talented young QB Ashton Scott ’22 did not have his best day. It’s yet to be determined whether or not kicker Mason Von Jess ’23 will be the next Eric Sachse or Steven Hauschka, but he has been a major special teams asset so far and his kicking ability could end up being a deciding factor in this game. 

Tufts’ offense needed to wake up at some point, and Bates’ horrid defense was their alarm clock. Coach Civetti made himself look like a genius with his two-QB offensive approach. Jacob Carroll ‘20 had a strong game with 223 yards and two touchdowns, and Trevon Woodson ’23 was a sharp 5-6 with another touchdown while also averaging 6.3 yards a carry on the ground. Implementing multiple quarterbacks frequently is a strategy prone to scrutinization, so we’ll see if that will be a pattern continuing this week or if Civetti felt he could experiment a little bit against lowly Bates. Wesleyan is not a defense you want to mess around against, especially with DL Taj Gooden ’21 back in the lineup. This is our Game of the Week so we will have additional coverage, but it should be a good one and everyone else in the league will have finished their games and be able to watch Wesleyan try to keep pace with Middlebury in the race for the title.

SS: Tufts 21, Wesleyan 20
HC: Wesleyan 28, Tufts 21 
MK: Wesleyan 24, Tufts 17
CC: Wesleyan 28, Tufts 14 
RM: Wesleyan 27, Tufts 16

Writers’ Pick: Wesleyan

Are We Really Doing This?: Week 4 Power Rankings

(1) 1. Middlebury (4-0)

Well I guess this thing might really happen. With a thrilling 2 OT win at Pratt Field over Amherst on Saturday, Middlebury has stormed to the front of the pack, 4-0 with wins over Williams, Trinity, and Amherst before Columbus Day Weekend. An Amherst win would’ve left them, Middlebury, Williams, and Wesleyan in the title discussion, but now it feels like really just Middlebury—unless you think Wesleyan can beat the 5 best teams in the league that are left on their schedule. Middlebury looks primed to run the table, but I wouldn’t hand them the title just yet—being a turnover prone team without an overwhelming amount of offensive talent leaves them susceptible to upset bids.

(2) 2. Amherst (3-1)

A brutal game for Amherst, who will feel absolutely heartbroken after needing just 3 points to beat Midd at the end of the 1st OT. The reality is that this was Middlebury’s game to lose for nearly the whole afternoon. They punched Amherst in the mouth and stormed off to a 21-0 1st quarter lead, before succumbing to a classic case of playing not to lose, combined with a few bad turnovers. Credit to Amherst for coming all the way back and taking a 28-21 lead, but they couldn’t stop Midd all day, who carved them up for 469 yards of total offense and would have won at the end of regulation if not for a mind-blowingly bad decision by Coach Ritter to pass on 2 nd and 5 inside the 10 with one of the best kickers in the league, and an equally bad pass by Middlebury QB Will Jernigan ’21. The biggest question for Amherst going forward is how are they going to be able to run the ball and pick up easy yards on the ground? On Saturday they were actually okay, 44 carries as a team for 191 yards, but at the start of the game they were nowhere to be found, which forced them to try to get back in the game behind the arm of QB Ollie Eberth ’20, which is not his strength (4 INT). Amherst needs to establish the run early so that Eberth can manage the game and the defense can protect the lead, but they have yet to find Jack Hickey’s replacement.

(4) 3. Williams (3-1)

A weird win for Williams, who led 17-0 at half against Colby, and won by the same score. Colby punted or turned the ball over on literally every single possession, which raises a lot of questions of Coach Jack Cosgrove. The Ephs seemed content to do exactly what they did last week against Bowdoin—running the ball down their opponent’s throats (37 carries, 227 yards), keeping Maimaron clean, and letting their defense, which just might be the league’s best, hang onto the lead. If they could’ve gotten one more stop against Middlebury, they’d probably be #1 right now. The schedule doesn’t get much tougher the next two weeks—both home games against Hamilton and Bates, but unfortunately the championship train might have already left the station.

(3) 4. Wesleyan (4-0)

A real ugly win for Wesleyan, 20-13 against a pitiful Bowdoin team. In hindsight, this was an obvious trap game for the Cardinals. Having already played Hamilton, Colby, and Bates, a week away from starting to play actual football teams, traveling to Brunswick was probably the last thing they wanted to do. They also had a goal line fumble and some other bad breaks that made this a closer game than it should have, but all those excuses aside, being tied 13-13 to Bowdoin with 5 minutes left is not something that should be ignored. Despite being 4-0, we still know nothing about this team because of their schedule—outside of the fact that QB Ashton Scott ’22 has shown glimpses of being able to somewhat fill QB Mark Piccirillo’s shoes. I would be surprised if this team won more than 5 or 6 games.

(6) 5. Trinity (2-2)

Another unconvincing week for the Bantams, who squandered a chance to return home and make a statement about how talented they are. Yes, a win is still a win, but 31-24 against Hamilton is not much to write home about. The game was not as close as the score indicated, Trinity outgained Hamilton 419-256, but regardless, doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. The offense just seems like it’s missing that extra sparkle it had last year, despite the fact that we finally saw Girard and Schofer (5 catches each, 90 yards each, 3 TDs combined) click in the same week, and the emergence of RB Tijani Harris ’22 (25 carries, 115 yards, 1 TD) while Spencer Lockwood ’22 continues to be away from the team. They have the best run defense in the league, as David Kagan (14 carries, 18 yards) found out, and they obviously are not going to be a team that anybody overlooks on their schedule, but for whatever reason this just might not the same Trinity we’re used to seeing.

(7) 6. Tufts (2-2)

Meh. I mean, flip a coin on this one between Tufts and Hamilton. What’s more impressive, losing to Trinity on the road by 7, or beating Bates by 5? Bates had scored 25 points in their first 3 games combined, and then put up 28 on Tufts, but to be fair, it was 33-14 before Bates grabbed 2 consolation scores. In all honesty, I think we’ve been way too harsh on the Jumbos. Their first 3 games were against Trinity, Williams, and Amherst, and they managed to come out at 1-2, winning at home and losing on the road. The win against Trinity really screwed with our expectations and perception of this team, but the reality is that this was always going to be a bridge year while they dealt with some key losses. I think Jacob Carroll ’20 is a solid quarterback who had a pair of bad outings against Williams and Amherst on the road. This quarterback and this team are going to get better every week and will still finish with a winning record. They need to find a way to run the ball better so that Carroll can settle in a little, but they have an emerging group of receivers and a great core of linebackers to rely on defensively. The secondary is brutal, but it might not matter with most of the teams left on their schedule.

(5) 7. Hamilton (2-2)

It’s starting to feel like another 3-6 year for Hamilton, if we’re being completely honest. Good enough to beat the CBB, good enough to get respect from everybody else, but not good enough to ever actually give those teams a scare. And I don’t say that because they lost by 7 in Hartford to the 3 team league champs, I say that more because I disagree with the fact that they were ranked 5th last week. QB Kenny Gray ’20 is dead last in the league with a 49.5% completion percentage, and I still need a bigger sample size to give you a better opinion about RB David Kagan ’20, who rushed for 18 yards on 14 carries against Trinity, the 3rd week in a row his carries, rushing yards, and yards per carry have decreased.

(8) 8. Colby (0-4)

Colby stays at 8th for what feels like the 1000th week in a row, but it feels like that gap between 8 and 9 might be shrinking. Credit to the Mules for holding a potent Williams offense to 17 points, but if you watched the second half of that game, it was pretty clear the Ephs called off the dogs at intermission. What’s more concerning to me is the fact that Colby never really showed any ambition in winning the game, and that blame should be directed at the coaching staff. They had the ball on 4th and 10 with 6 minutes to go, down 17-0, on the Williams 48 yard line, and punted! They punted down 17-0 in enemy territory, with 6 minutes left. What is that?! What kind of message are you sending to your team, and more specifically your sophomore ROY QB Matt Hersch ’22? Pretty hard to win any games with an attitude like that.

(9) 9. Bates (0-4)

As previously mentioned, Bates had scored 25 points in its first 3 weeks, but then managed to put 28 on the board in week 4 against Tufts. It was nice to see them hang around and be somewhat competitive in a game against a solid team, although it was 33-14 in the 4th quarter. While there are obviously a number of concerns with this team, it is a big red flag that they can’t seem to make their mind up about their offensive philosophy. After throwing the ball 71 times in the first 2 weeks, they returned to their option offense for week 3 and threw the ball 8 times. Last week, it was the air attack again, throwing 29 times. Unless they saw something on film that they really liked against Wesleyan in Week 3, you would like to see a first year coach prioritize the process over the results.

(10) 10. Bowdoin (0-4)

A real tough one for Bowdoin, who had every bit of interest in shocking Wesleyan, but just came up short in a 20-13 loss. While they have RB Nate Richam-Odoi ’20 and his big play potential (59 yard TD run), they will (theoretically) have a chance to strike quick with a big play of two, but the defense was probably the most exciting part of this game. After allowing an average of a whopping 46.3 points a week through their first 3 games, they held Wesleyan to just 20. If you’re a team and a program like Bowdoin, you have to find the silver lining.

Middlebury, Vermont – Title Town?: Stock Report 10/9

Unless you live under a rock you probably heard something about the epic, double-overtime Middlebury-Amherst game on Saturday. Fortunately for those of you that do live under a rock, I’m going to talk a little bit more about it. This football game was an absolute classic. The Panthers raced out to a 21-0 lead before the end of the first quarter and when I saw that I thought it was going to get ugly in a hurry. Apparently I forgot that the Mammoths don’t fold because before I knew it Amherst held a 28-21 lead and had possession of the ball with 10 minutes left to play. This is when the game really started to live up to the hype (much of which was created by us). The Middlebury defense forced a 3 and out and just a few plays into the subsequent drive, Will Jernigan ’21 connected with Greg Livingston ’20 for a 54 yard touchdown to even things up with 6 minutes left.

After the Mammoths couldn’t get anything going on the other end, Jernigan orchestrated a 9-play, 2 and a half-minute drive to put the Panthers on the Amherst 10-yard line with 33 seconds left to play. You’d think that with the game tied at this point Middlebury would run the ball a few times and then kick a field goal as time expired – particularly because their running back, Alex Maldjian ’23, was having a career day. Instead, the Panthers went with the Pete Carroll strategy from Super Bowl XLIX and they passed the ball. Those up in Vermont must not have remembered how that worked out for the Seahawks, because Jernigan had his next pass picked off by John Ballard ’20 at the goal line to send it to overtime.

Middlebury received the ball first in overtime looking to redeem themselves and Jernigan was intercepted, again, on the second play of the drive. This put Amherst in essentially the same position that the Panthers were in at the very end of the game – you’re already in field goal range, so just be careful with the ball for a few plays then kick a field goal and go home. If only it were that easy. On a 3rd and 10 play, Eberth took a shot towards the end zone and was picked off by Finn Muldoon ’23, sending the game into double overtime. Absolutely bananas.

This time the Mammoths got the ball first and didn’t put much together, but they were finally able to kick that elusive field goal to take a 31-28 lead. On 3rd and 5 from the Amherst 20, Jernigan found Maxwell Rye ’20 for a 7-yard completion and a first down, avoiding kicking a field goal to force a third overtime. The Amherst defense stayed tough and forced another 3rd and long, but Jernigan made a big-time play and found Maxwell Rye ’20 again, this time in the end zone to secure the win (and potentially a NESCAC Championship) for the Panthers.

I know it’s easy to find out everything you just read by looking at the box scores and reading the recaps from each team’s website, but those don’t give you the human element. This was the type of game that every player on both of these teams will remember forever. This was historically two of the best teams in the NESCAC battling it out like great teams do for the right to take home a trophy. That’s the type of game this was; it felt like a championship game. NESCAC sports are special because of games like this one and, as you’ll read more about below, it likely will be the championship game barring an unexpected collapse by the Panthers.

Stock up

Middlebury’s Title Chances

No reason to wait around here – the Panthers have put themselves in the driver’s seat for the NESCAC Championship. They’ve now taken down Trinity, Williams, and Amherst who are three of the top four other teams in the league. This means that even if they lose a game they still hold the tiebreaker over each of these squads and that is absolutely huge. The most obvious challenger is undefeated Wesleyan, but keep in mind that Wesleyan’s four wins have come against Colby, Hamilton, Bates, and Bowdoin so they literally have to play the five best teams in the conference over their last five games. Now I’m not saying that the Cardinals aren’t going to win all five, but they ha– actually I am saying that they aren’t going to win all five. In fact, I’d be surprised if they even won three. The league is Middlebury’s to lose at this point so stay tuned to find out if they pull an ’04 Yankees on us.

League Entertainment Value

Looking at the slate of games heading into this weekend, it didn’t look like we were in for very much excitement. Aside from Amherst-Middlebury every game featured a team traditionally found at the top half of the league versus a team traditionally at the bottom. I’ll be honest, I was expecting several blowouts. I was very happy to find out that I was wrong, because every game besides Williams-Colby ended up as one-score games in the fourth quarter with the trailing team possessing the ball. Bates, Hamilton, and Bowdoin all had chances to lead game winning or game-tying drives against Tufts, Trinity, and Wesleyan, respectively. At the end of the day these games were all won by the favorites, but if we’re going to have such blatant imbalances in the standings then at least it’s nice to have that little bit of hope that the underdog might win, right? If nothing else it keeps fans in the stands until the end of the game… 

Bates Offense

Likely the biggest surprise of the weekend came from the Bobcat offense who came into the league last in most statistical categories. It also didn’t seem favorable that they were matched up against the Jumbo defense that had only allowed 8 points to the NESCAC’s top scoring offense. Apparently this didn’t faze the young Bates offense, because they came out firing. Brendan Costa ’21 was throwing the ball all over the field, connecting with 7 different receivers en route to his first 200-yard game of the season. Their goal line touches were dominated by fantasy vulture Christian Sanfilippo ’21, who had 6 carries for 11 yards and 3 touchdowns. Talk about getting your 19 fantasy points the hard way. This was the first time all year that Bates looked like they could really put solid drives together using both the run and the pass, which is a serious improvement. They had to go 88 yards in 90 seconds to cap off a 19-point comeback and were ultimately unsuccessful, but this looked like a completely different unit on Saturday. We’ll see if the improvements are enough to take down the Trinity Bantams for the first time since 1979.

Stock down

Bantam Dynasty

I’ll be honest I’ve been really excited to write this stock down for a while now, but I wanted to wait until it was the right time. Now feels like a good enough time for me. Trinity is still one of the best teams in the league, so this speaks more to how good they have been over the last three years than to their struggles this season. Prior to this season this year’s senior class had a 24-2 career record with three NESCAC Championships. That’s dominant. Through four games this season they already have two losses and really haven’t looked like the same team at all. They did what they should have done against Bowdoin, but their showing against a much weaker Hamilton team was not the Bantam football that we’re accustomed to seeing. Again, I don’t mean to say that we won’t see another NESCAC Championship trophy make its way to Hartford in the near future, but the time has come that we can officially say that Trinity is not the best team in the conference. They won’t win the conference championship this year and their ridiculous run, for now, is over. Finally it’s someone else’s turn.

Amherst Offense

If Middlebury had lost to Amherst, they probably would’ve found themselves in the stock down category as well. The Mammoths should have won that game for a number of different reasons, the most obvious of which is the fact that they had the ball on Middlebury’s 25-yard line in overtime, only needing a field goal to win it. Are you kidding me? Granted Middlebury blew it at the end of regulation, but shouldn’t that have taught them how to handle the exact same situation less than 20 minutes later? I don’t want to put the whole thing on QB Ollie Eberth ’20, but throwing 4 picks certainly isn’t the way I would go about winning a championship. Including overtime, the Mammoths possessed the ball for 50 minutes, compared to just 25 for Middlebury. Let that sink in. Amherst had the ball for twice as long as the Panthers and still lost. All the Mammoths can do now is focus on the next game and hope things fall their way. It’s an uphill battle from here. 

A Lot on the Line: Middlebury vs. Amherst Game of the Week Preview

This is a really interesting game because even this early in the season there’s a real chance that this ends up deciding the NESCAC Championship. Middlebury has already beaten Trinity and Williams; two of the three teams that I thought had the best title chances coming into the season (Amherst being the third). They still have to play Wesleyan who has looked very good, but aside from them it’s Hamilton, Bowdoin, Colby, and Tufts who hasn’t looked all that great either. Amherst still has the bulk of their schedule remaining but Amherst is Amherst and I’ll be damned if I rule out the Mammoths. There’s a lot to be said about this game, so let’s get down to it.

Key #1 for Middlebury: Hold On to the Ball

This one is pretty straightforward, but the Panthers lead the NESCAC with 7 fumbles thus far and while they may have only lost 3 of those, ball security will have to be a big focus heading into this weekend. This will be especially true because Amherst has recovered 5 fumbles this year, the best mark in the league. It’s going to come down to the guys who have the ball consistently – RB Alex Maldjian ’23 and QB Will Jernigan ’21. Maldjian has already found himself a spot as the team’s starting running back and he’s really the only guy that gets any touches out of the backfield for them. The problem is that he already has 2 fumbles on the year and Jernigan has 3, so these guys in particular will need to lock in on holding on to the ball.

Key #2 for Middlebury: Pocket Awareness

Again, this one is pretty much on Jernigan. The Mammoths have one of the best defensive lines in the league, and they get to the quarterback very quickly. Jernigan has started to earn his money as a passer this year, but he won’t have as much time to survey the field this Saturday so we’ll get a chance to see what his instincts are. Last year he was very much a run-first quarterback so it’ll be interesting to see which Will Jernigan comes out when there are two Amherst defensive ends barreling at him. His two key playmakers to throw to have been receiver Maxwell Rye ’20 and tight end Frank Cosolito ’20, so he’ll likely look to them when the play collapses. If Jernigan can stay composed when all hell breaks loose then I like Middlebury’s chances a lot at Amherst this weekend.

Key #1 for Amherst: Red Zone Efficiency

This is a big one. The Mammoths have only scored 5 times on 13 trips (only 3 touchdowns) to the red zone through 3 games, the second lowest rate in the NESCAC. This is especially troubling because their first 2 games came against Bates and Colby – two of the weakest defenses in the conference. There’s a chance that this could be because they haven’t really seemed to have a consistent running back, it has really been a committee in the backfield so far. Out wide Amherst only has about 2½ receivers that you really have to worry about, so it seems like teams have just keyed in on those few guys when they get deep in their own territory. This also brings me to my next point…

Key #2 for Amherst: Finding a Third Offensive Threat

To the untrained eye this seems like one of the most glaring problems for the Mammoths this year. Eberth has success throwing the ball and he also leads the team in rushing, so it’s no question that he’s a huge threat. He also loves throwing to WR James O’Regan ’20, who has nearly half of the team’s receptions and more than half of their receiving touchdowns on the year. Aside from these two guys it’s sort of a mystery who Amherst will rely on. Luke Mallette ’20 is clearly Eberth’s second favorite target, but it’s a far cry from the relationship that Eberth has with O’Regan. Louie Eckelkamp ’23 has the most carries and yards out of the backfield, but the carries have been pretty divided among a few different guys. In order to beat Middlebury they’ll need more guys to step up on offense because this isn’t like the defenses they were seeing up in Maine.

Everything Else:

On paper this looks about as even as a matchup can get. Statistically speaking, Amherst and Middlebury are within one place of each other in nearly every major category on both sides of the ball. These are teams that have had success in the past and are perennially the class of the NESCAC. Both teams are trying to replace key pieces lost from last year’s squad, but they also each return a good portion of their starting lineups as well. Will Jernigan ’21 looks like he spent his summer learning how to play quarterback because he looks nothing like last year’s Will Jernigan whose gut instinct was running a QB power. The transformation that he has gone through along with Middlebury’s talented offensive playmakers make this offense incredibly difficult to stop, and I’m not sure that Amherst is quite ready for a team of this caliber. It seems as though the Mammoths have a bit more to replace from last year and I think that allows the Panthers to come into town and steal a win.

Prediction: Middlebury 24, Amherst 21

Almost Halfway: Weekend Preview 10/5

Williams @ Colby, 1pm, Waterville, ME

It will be homecoming weekend for this upcoming contest in Waterville where the struggling Colby Mules (0-3) will host a red-hot Williams (2-1) squad. The Ephs have won comfortably for the past two weeks, giving both Bowdoin and Tufts little room to breathe. The Ephs have stepped up on both sides of the ball during this hot streak averaging over 42 PPG and allowing less than 10. Much of this offensive success is due to QB Bobby Maimaron ’21 emerging as one of the best offensive weapons in the NESCAC this season. He has always been known as an effective runner, averaging over 65 yards/game last season and finishing 5th in the NESCAC with 8 rushing TDs. It is in the air where Maimaron has made big strides this year. So far he has thrown for 7 touchdowns through 3 weeks, whereas he threw for only 8 touchdowns all of last season. This could pose a great threat for the Mules has they have been scorched by the option this year.

The biggest problem for Colby hasn’t been the defense, despite how the score lines look, but rather it has been turnovers. Ball security has not been a virtue for the Mules as they lead the NESCAC with 4 lost fumbles. To make matters worse, QB Matt Hersch ’22 also leads the NESCAC with 6 interceptions thrown on this young season. The task will not get any easier this weekend as this group will have to face an Eph’s defense that has been able to compete with even the best offenses in the conference this year. A lot will have to change for Colby and quickly for them to have a shot in this game because right now it looks like Bobby Maimaron ’21, Frank Stola ’21, and the rest of the Ephs are primed to put on a show.

SS: Williams 38, Colby 9
RM: Williams 37, Colby 13
CC: Williams 38, Colby 14
MK: Williams 34, Colby 10
HC: Williams 38, Colby 14

Writers’ Pick: Williams

Tufts @ Bates, 1pm, Lewiston, ME

After the high of taking down back-to-back champs Trinity in week one, it has all been downhill for Tufts. The brick wall of a defense that dominated the Bantams has since disappeared and the Jumbos now find themselves in a 1-2 hole. Last week Frank Stola ’21 and Bobby Maimaron ’21 were able to move the ball up and down the field at will, combining for 3 touchdowns in the first half and 4 in total. The lack of defense gave the struggling offense no hope to recover and it all devolved from there. First half woes plagued the Jumbos once against last week against Amherst as they found themselves shoutout and down by 14 at the half. Tufts has not had the chance yet to play one of the lower-tier teams in the conference so this weekend will be a chance to reestablish themselves as a high-level competitor.

You really have to feel for the Bobcats at this point in the season. Their first 3 contests have been against Amherst, Middlebury and Wesleyan, who have a combined record of 9-0. While Tufts will be the first sub .500 team that Bates plays but that does not mean that they are not comparable competition. I have actually been fairly impressed with the way that the Bates defense has been able to keep some of these contests within respectable margins despite the extreme lack of contribution coming from the offensive side of the ball. The lack of QB Brendan Costa ’21 has put the Bobcat offense to an absolute standstill for which it appears it will be difficult to recover. Bates’ best chance in this contest is to play the consistent brand of defense they have throughout the years and hope for a few lucky breaks to come their way in the form of turnovers. This game is not completely out of reach for Bates but they would certainly need nearly everything to go right to pull it off.

SS: Tufts 21, Bates 6
RM: Tufts 34, Bates 10
CC: Tufts 31, Bates 14
MK: Tufts 28, Bates 0
HC: Tufts 24, Bates 3

Writers’ Pick: Tufts

Hamilton @ Trinity, 1pm, Hartford, CT

The Continentals are riding high heading into their third game of the season after capturing their first win of the year decisively over the Colby Mules. The offensive attack was too much for the Mules to handle as QB Kenny Gray ’20 threw for 2 TD and ran for another while RB David Kagan ’20 tacked on 2 TDs of his own. Despite this success the Bantams are different challenge for Hamilton and cutting through Trinity like they did Colby won’t be possible. The Hamilton defense has also been lackluster thus far, allowing opposing teams at least 24 points in each game. Allowing 24 points to each Bowdoin and Colby is not a good sign of what is to come when they are lined up against Trinity. With the offensive attack weakened and the defense overwhelmed, it could make for a sloppy weekend for Hamilton.

The Bantams have had some serious struggles of their own heading into week 3. Two disappointing losses sandwich a blowout win over Bowdoin in what has been a rollercoaster of a season up to this point. Trinity made it clear week 2 that they still have what it takes to put up crooked numbers against worse opponents, but they also made it clear again in Week 3 that they are no longer the impenetrable force that they had once been. That all being said, Trinity is being thrown a softball this weekend on which they should cash in greatly. The result here should look much more like week 2 and hopefully give Bantam fans some hope at salvaging what has been a season to forget.

SS: Trinity 38, Hamilton 17
RM: Trinity 49, Hamilton 13
CC: Trinity 42, Hamilton 21
MK Trinity 38, Hamilton 14
HC: Trinity 35, Hamilton 21

Writers’ Pick: Trinity

Wesleyan @ Bowdoin, 1pm, Brunswick, ME

Bowdoin fans will need to prepare themselves for what will be yet another tough weekend as they play host to the undefeated Wesleyan Cardinals. After putting up a fight against Hamilton in the first week Bowdoin has endured a couple of substantial road losses against the likes of Trinity and Williams. The blueprint for this game appears to be much the same as the last two unfortunately. It is fairly clear to see Austin McCrum ’21 and Nate Richam-Odoi ’20 do not have enough help offensively to generate an effective offense and the Bowdoin defense is not capable of containing the top offenses in the league. I’m not meaning to drag on the Polar Bears, this could probably be said about any CBB team. Until something big changes in Brunswick, and Maine as a whole, Bowdoin will have to continue to endure these tough losses for the foreseeable future.

Wesleyan’s 3-0 record looks fantastic at the moment and there’s almost no doubt that they will remain a perfect 4-0 following this weekend. While this undefeated reign of dominance is certainly impressive to start the season, it is important to note that Wesleyan’s strength of schedule thus far has been as weak as can be. So far they have taken on Hamilton, Bates, Colby and now get to face Bowdoin. Since the Cardinals have won fairly convincingly in every contest, they haven’t been challenged yet and it is hard to really see where they stack up with the likes of Midd, Amherst, Williams and others. This weekend will not give us any insight into that unfortunately as it should be another breeze for Wesleyan.

SS: Wesleyan 28, Bowdoin 7
RM: Wesleyan 41, Bowdoin 7
CC: Wesleyan 38, Bowdoin 13
MK: Wesleyan 35, Bowdoin 13
HC: Wesleyan 35, Bowdoin 10

Writers’ Pick: Wesleyan

Middlebury @ Amherst, 2pm, Amherst, MA

Finally we come to our most competitive, and possibly only, competitive match as both Middlebury and Amherst enter this weekend undefeated. For Middlebury their rise to the top has been mainly due to their smothering defense which suffocated the likes of Trinity and Williams. The improvement defensively has been extremely impressive considering that the lineup has not changed all that significantly from last year. QB Will Jernigan ’21 has been consistently effective for the Panthers, currently sitting in 3rd place in the NESCAC in passing yards. What has helped allowed Jernigan to have so much success has been the effectiveness of his running back Alex Maldjian ’23. Maldjian has been a workhorse for Midd, leading the NESCAC in rushes with 63 and is 2nd in rushing yards with 280. He has been an extremely valuable piece for this Midd offense and has helped them be so efficient at moving the ball up and down the field. Overall the narrative seems to suggest that the Panthers have everything going in their favor, but what happens when an immovable object meets an unstoppable force?

Amherst began the season with a few gimme wins over Colby and Bates but really established themselves as a candidate for title winners when they took down Tufts last week. The Mammoths played Tufts much closer than they did Colby or Bates, but it was clear that Amherst was in the driver’s seat the whole game. QB Ollie Eberth ’20 has commanded the offense well, averaging over 200 yards in the air and throwing 7 TDs through 3 weeks. His work on the ground has been impressive, as he averages nearly 70 yards a game. Eberth is the focal point of this Mammoth attack and he has yet to be contained this year. Defensively Amherst has been textbook thus far, allowing 13 points per game and having forced 10 turnovers. The defense has done more than enough work the past 3 weeks to keep Eberth and the rest of the offense in the game, but this weekend it may be a much tougher task. This game obviously has huge title implications, despite being just the halfway point in the season. Both teams are sure to leave it all out on the field Saturday in what is sure to be an exciting contest.

SS: Middlebury 28, Amherst 21
RM: Middlebury 27, Amherst 21
CC: Middlebury 24, Amherst 21
MK: Amherst 24, Middlebury 13
HC: Amherst 24, Middlebury 20

Writers’ Pick: Middlebury

Do We Have a Favorite Yet?: Week 3 Power Rankings

(1) 1. Middlebury

What’s Coach Ritter spiking the Gatorade with this season? Middlebury erased any suspicion that their opening win over Williams was a fluke by taking down another NESCAC heavyweight, three-time defending champion Trinity. What’s more impressive is that they did it mainly with great defense- and Middlebury has not been known for their defense in recent years. Nobody knows what’s going on with Trinity right now, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that the same unit that Seamus Lambert tore up last year intercepted him four times. QB Will Jernigan ’21 only completed 13 of 29 passes, but he ran for a touchdown and threw for another with no fumbles or interceptions. That turnover differential is a big reason why Middlebury pulled off the win. With all the momentum in the world, the Panthers have a golden opportunity to further justify their number 1 ranking with a win over Amherst this Saturday. 

(3) 2. Amherst (3-0) 

The Mammoths showed that their tusks were a little stronger with a nice win over the Tufts Jumbos. Amherst has not put up eye-popping numbers this year (all of their games have ended with pretty similar scores), but they earned some respect by beating a quality non-CBB opponent. They have been quietly playing sound football, relying on their veteran playmakers and committing few penalties and turnovers- they were only flagged three times for 20 yards against Tufts. WR James O’Regan ’20 continued to produce with 97 yards and a TD. It’s clear that he is QB Ollie Eberth’s favorite target, so it will be interesting to see which team (if any) will be able to shut him down this season. This week’s matchup with Middlebury will be Amherst’s biggest test yet by far. If they continue to play quality football and hold teams under 20 points, though, they will dethrone Midd and become the clear top dog. 

(5) 3. Wesleyan (3-0) 

Ashton Scott has been making a name for himself in his first year as a starter

I honestly ran through all the 2-1 and 1-2 teams in the league wondering which of them might deserve this 3 spot, because Wesleyan boasts easily the least impressive 3-0 slate with wins over Colby, Hamilton and Bates. On the other hand, all you can do is play the schedule you’re given and Wes has done that quite well so far. Unfortunately for anyone wondering how good this team actually is, they’re likely going to have the least impressive 4-0 record possible after a win over Bowdoin this week. And unfortunately for Wesleyan, they have all the best teams at the back end of their schedule. Sophomore QB Ashton Scott ’22 continued to impress, completing 14 of 20 passes and throwing for two TDs. The only reason he didn’t put up bigger numbers is because Wesleyan’s backups were in for most of the second half. He is a dual threat QB that will be fun to watch in the next few seasons. The defense has been the best in the league so far in terms of scoring, only allowing Bates 117 yards of total offense while forcing four turnovers last week. The Cardinals need to use this game to fine tune their offense and maybe give their stars some rest, because they won’t be getting any breaks after this week. 

(2) 4. Williams (2-1) 

Some may say this team deserves to be above Wesleyan, but their two wins are honestly not looking much more impressive than Wes’s three. Tufts has fallen off big time since week one, and nobody was surprised when the Ephs smoked Bowdoin 41-10 this past week. Williams did show that they could run the ball well in addition to throwing it, as they ran it 43 times for an absurd 398 yards. Bobby Maimaron ’21 only threw ten passes. I love this strategy by Coach Mark Raymond. Keep your star QB fresh and keep the clock moving; blowouts get boring for everyone and Bowdoin probably wanted to hop on the bus back to Maine by halftime. With Colby, Hamilton and Bates next on the schedule for the Ephs, we may see more of this ground attack approach. Williams is in good position to be in championship contention late in the season if they take care of business the next few weeks. 

(7) 5. Hamilton (2-1) 

This is where the rankings begin to get more complicated. I’m not sure I can confidently say that Hamilton could beat both Trinity and Tufts, but they’re getting the fifth spot because they seem to be the only team of the three trending in a positive direction right now. They technically also have much better championship prospects than Tufts and Trinity given their record. I’m not saying that anyone should put money on Hamilton to win it all, but they certainly separated themselves from the CBB tier this weekend in a 45-24 win over Colby. Ironically, Colby had more yards of total offense, but picking off three passes and going 8 for 14 on third down helped Hamilton to victory. QB Kenny Gray ’20 had another solid game, throwing for two touchdowns and running for another. With strong special teams play and RB David Kagan ’20 leading the conference in rushing yards and touchdowns, Continental fans should be happy with how this season is progressing so far. They have a big test this weekend at Trinity in a game that they need to win to stay in title contention, but a win in this game is much more within reach for them than it has been in the past few years. 

(4) 6. Trinity (1-2)

I know they’re above a team they lost to in week 1, but it just doesn’t feel right putting Trinity so close to the CBB teams when they beat the only one they’ve played by 54. Nonetheless, 1-2 is not where anyone expected Trinity to be at this point in the season- they haven’t started a season 1-2 since 1995. This means that we will likely see a new NESCAC champion for the first time in three years, much to the excitement of everyone not in Hartford. QB Seamus Lambert ’22 leads the league in passing yards, so the Bantams’ terrific WRs have continued to produce, but he has also been sacked the most and is second in interceptions due to 4 in the loss to Middlebury. On top of that, Trinity was flagged for over 100 yards and RB Spencer Lockwood ’22 was not at the Middlebury game and is nowhere to be seen on campus. Lack of a run game, poor offensive line/quarterback play, and penalties have hurt the Bantams in their two losses. We know this team can probably still beat anyone, but this just isn’t their year so far. Having said that, three championships in four years is something other NESCAC players can only dream of, and the Bantams should still be a factor in determining who wins the title this year. A win over Hamilton at home this weekend will certainly propel Trinity over the Continentals in our rankings. 

(6) 7. Tufts (1-2)

Things haven’t been quite as smooth for Jacob Carroll and the Jumbos since their Week 1 win over Trinity

It’s looking like Tufts’ opening week win over Trinity has more to do with Trinity being down than Tufts being up. In fact, the Jumbos have had a brutal fall from grace since that week. Their offense is second to last in scoring, ranking above only Bates. We saw Jacob Carroll ’20 instead of Travon Woodson ’23 under center last week against Amherst, and he threw for 305 yards…but like Seamus Lambert, he was bit by the interception bug with three. This helped Amherst dominate time of possession and tire the Jumbos’ defense out. Tufts also has not been able to establish a run game this season, and they certainly needed one to beat Amherst. This team has a prime chance to get back on track when they pay Bates a visit in Lewiston; we should get to see who will emerge as the playmakers on both sides of the ball besides their usual standouts in WR OJ Armstrong ’21 and LB Greg Holt ’20. Still, you have to wonder why an 11,000 student university with Tufts’ location and resources has isn’t competing for a championship more often. 

(8) 8. Colby (0-3) 

It’s been a disappointing year in Waterville, both because people expected Colby to take a step forward this year and because the NESCAC is more exciting when the CBB teams can compete. Unfortunately, this gap between the CBB and everyone else got wider this past weekend when the Mules got thrashed by Hamilton. Last week was clearly a big week for interceptions, because Matt Hersch was the third quarterback to throw at least three of them. Although being 0-3 is never good, there are select individual performances the Mules should be happy with. Hersch (only a sophomore) is second in the league in passing yards per game, LB Marcus Bullard ’21 leads the league in tackles, and Chris George ’20 has been a decent replacement for Jake Schwern ’19 at running back. Colby has to step it up big time if they want to be competitive in any of their next three games- Williams, Middlebury, and Trinity. Sheesh!

(9) 9. Bates (0-3) 

You never want to be playing your worst football heading into the toughest part of your schedule, but unfortunately that’s the situation Bates finds themselves in after catching a 48-12 shellacking from Wesleyan in a game that really wasn’t that close. They’re playing far from full strength as their top two quarterbacks were both injured, but 117 yards of offense is pitiful no matter how you slice it. There really isn’t a lot of good to draw from their season so far, as they’ve put up the lowest point total in the league and allowed more than everyone except Bowdoin. Hopefully we will see QB Brendan Costa ’21 or at least backup Jack Bryant ’22 soon, or things will only continue to spiral downhill as they have since leading Amherst at the half in their opener. Nobody is expecting Bates to win any of their next three games against Tufts, Trinity and Williams, but if they get their QB back they should be playing some more exciting games in their last three. 

(10) 10. Bowdoin (0-3)

Admissions needs to loosen up in Brunswick, because the good people of Bowdoin deserve a better football team than what they have had to watch the past few years. One would think that a beautiful new football field and locker rooms would attract more talent, but we have yet to see the return on this investment on Saturdays. Bowdoin laid another egg last week in Williamstown, allowing the Ephs nearly 500 yards of offense. They did have two offensive standouts as RB Nate Richam ’20 managed 105 yards and a score and tight end Bo Millett ’21 passed the century mark in yards as well. Bowdoin should be thankful for these guys because frankly, they deserve to be on better teams. A team will only go as far as their QB takes them, so Bowdoin’s current situation makes sense given that Austin McCrum ’21 has twice as many picks than touchdowns this season and went 16 for 36 last week. Bowdoin is a great school with nice facilities, so it’s on new coach BJ Hammer to start bringing in better recruiting classes and actually show some results with this rebuild that Bowdoin has been trying to accomplish for years.

History of the Good and Bad Kind: Stock Report 10/1

Stock Up

Middlebury’s Championship Aspirations

Middlebury once again shocked everyone on Saturday when they soundly defeated Trinity to assert themselves in the driver’s seat for the NESCAC Championship. On top of already having a game in hand on the Ephs, Saturday’s win put the Panthers two games clear of the Bantams. Will Jernigan ‘21 is becoming a superstar in this simple (yet efficient) offense, and the ball-hawking secondary continues to create turnovers. They racked up four interceptions against Trinity, highlighted by Kevin Hartley’s pick-six. The defensive line played extremely well, and in particular Alex Norton ‘20 made several big plays (seven tackles (three for loss) and two sacks).  Trinity offensive lien The Panthers aren’t out of the woods just yet as they are set to hit the road for a clash with fellow undefeated heavyweight Amherst, but the team from Vermont certainly looks (at this point in the season) to be the strongest and most resilient team in NESCAC. 

Ashton Scott’s MVP Campaign

I fully understand that the Cardinals have not played a game against a top-five conference foe to date, but quarterback Ashton Scott ‘22 is doing exactly what Coach DiCenzo wants on the offensive end. Scott had another excellent performance against Bates, completing 70% of his passes and two scores. He leads all NESCAC quarterbacks in efficiency rating (174.3), touchdown passes (8) and is tied with Williams’ Bobby Maimaron with having thrown the least interceptions (1). Scott knows that his defense is one of the more elite units thus far in the conference, so sustaining long drives while avoiding negative plays is key to his side of the ball’s success. Through three games, Scott has been sacked only once, a testament to his mobility and pocket awareness in addition to his football IQ.

Frank Stola’s Quest for History

Even with a quiet game by his standards (2 receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown), Stola continues to pursue multiple records within a single season. The junior caught his seventh touchdown of the season against the Polar Bears, positioning himself well on pace to top the all-time single season record of 15 receiving touchdowns. His 453 receiving yards to date would put him on pace to finish with well above 1,000, which would put him roughly 3rd or 4th in NESCAC history for a single-season performance. Of course Stola would rather have a NESCAC Championship than all of these personal accolades, but he has a very realistic chance to become one of the all-time great wide receivers the conference has ever witnessed.  

Stock Down

Trinity QB Seamus Lambert

The sophomore quarterback had his worst performance as a member of the Bantams, but what makes it even more defining is that this game was basically a do-or-die scenario, and the loss  basically cost the Bantams a shot at a fourth consecutive conference championship. Lambert had some success moving the ball through the air, but interception after interception doomed every drive Trinity sustained. I’m honestly surprised Jordan Vazzano ‘21 did not see any action against the Panthers because of how bad Lambert performed. Trinity is now a shocking 1-2 in the league and both instances are because Lambert’s poor play. Trinity must win out and have a boatload of luck in order to maybe tie for the championship, and if the sophomore quarterback isn’t already benched, he will have to protect the ball a whole lot better. 

CBB Defenses

The CBB crew has been the doormat of the NESCAC for a few years now, and this season is no exception. Colby, Bowdoin and Bates both have their fair share of problems on the offensive side of the ball, but each team’s respective defense has been nothing short of atrocious. Combined, the three Maine schools are allowing 113.6 points per game. The other seven teams in the conference? 117.7 points per game. Moreover, the CBB squads are the only three teams that allow over 30+ points per game and at least 400 yards of total offense per game. Bates has the worst pass defense (246 yards per game) and allowed 34 first half points to Wesleyan in their 48-12 shellacking. The Polar Bears feature the worst run defense BY FAR (275.3 yards per game), highlighted by allowing five first half touchdowns against Williams last Saturday. Colby is equally bad on both sides of the ball (202 yards per game for both the run and pass defenses) and just gave up 45 points to Hamilton. All three of these schools will have absolutely zero chance of beating a non-CBB school if the defenses continued to get steamrolled like this. 

Time to Turn it Up: Trinity vs. Middlebury Game of the Week Preview

Think of the NESCAC football season like one large double elimination bracket. Realistically, if you want to win the league, you can only have 1 loss, and even that is pushing it. You almost certainly cannot have 2 losses and expect to find yourselves tied for first with the tiebreakers falling in your favor. I say all this to mention that this game is as close to an elimination game in a 9-game season as it gets, for Week 3 standards. Trinity stumbled out of the gate with a Week 1 loss to Tufts and sits at 1-1. If they lose again, before they play Wesleyan, Amherst, or Williams, they are almost certainly done. Middlebury, courtesy of a big Week 1 win against Williams, is 2-0, but cannot afford a loss this early in the season if it has any hopes of hoisting a trophy. This is a de factor elimination game.

Key #1 for Middlebury: Don’t Beat Yourself

Lost in the shuffle of Middlebury’s seemingly improved offense, on the backs of much improved QB Will Jernigan ’21, is the fact that the Panthers have developed an early habit of coughing up the rock. They have fumbled the ball 6 times and been fortunate enough to have only lost 3 of them, while Jernigan has also thrown 2 interceptions. It is going to be a long day for Midd if they can’t hang on to the ball—it is tough enough to score against Trinity as it is.

Key #2 for Middlebury: Get Ahead, Stay Ahead

You could call this any number of things, but in essence, Middlebury doesn’t have the firepower to hang in a shootout with Trinity as they are presently constructed. Jared Lebowitz ’17 isn’t walking through that door. This means they have to establish the run game, pick up easy first downs, and grind out longer drives. If they go down 14-0 or something like that early, forget about it. If the defense is put in a position where it can play the style of defense it wants to play, they can keep Trinity in front of them. If they have to get overly aggressive and play out of their comfort zone because they’re trailing, well I can think of three guys in Hartford who will be looking forward to the thought of that.

Key #1 for Trinity: Establish the Run

I know this is a weird pick for what appears to be one of the most talented passing attacks in league history, but hear me out. You can’t rely on the home run to bail you out every possession. For those who don’t remember, in Trinity’s only loss last season at Williams, Williams did a great stop of stuffing the box and committing to stopping RB Max Chipouras ’19 on 1st and 2nd downs, forcing then starting QB Jordan Vazzano ’21 into exclusively throwing deep balls to Girard and Schofer, which are a lot easier to defend when you know they’re coming. We still don’t know what version of Spencer Lockwood ’22 we’re going to get this season, 37 yards on 16 carries against Tufts, but 72 yards on 14 carries and.2 scores against Bowdoin, a much less tough defense. If they can string together first downs on the ground, the points will flow.

Key #2: Disruption on Defense

Just as Middlebury needs to take care of the ball and play smart football, Trinity’s defense needs to ensure that the exact opposite occurs. Jernigan is at his best when he has a full plethora of options at his disposal, when he is in situations that could either be run plays or pass plays. Forcing him into obvious passing downs like 2nd and 3rd and long will be huge for Trinity, as will forcing turnovers and getting to him in the pocket. The Bantams have a whopping 22 tackles for loss as a team through 2 games, led by DL Jimmy Christiano ’21 with 4. If they can continue their pace of 11 a game, it’ll be a long afternoon for Jernigan.

Everything Else:

What’s so exciting about this time of year, and also what makes it really hard to make predictions, is that all of the teams are so far from being finished products. They have all the ingredients in the kitchen, but they don’t know what they’re going to cook. Both Middlebury and Trinity have impressed through two weeks, but they have also raised a lot of questions about themselves. A lot of those questions will be answered tomorrow, but ultimately, I just like Trinity’s ingredients at this time of year more than I like Middlebury’s. The Panthers struggled to keep Frank Stola ’21 in front of them when Williams came to town, to the tune of 6 catches for 151 yards and 2 scores, even though everyone knew the ball was going to him. Trinity has three Frank Stola types, and you don’t know which one is getting the ball. I think Trinity continues to get back on track and look like the team we all expected them to be.

Prediction: Trinity 31-17

Who Are The Real Contenders?: Weekend Preview 9/28

Editor’s note: In addition to the weekend preview I wanted to update everyone on how our writers have been doing in picking the winners of each game. The majority of the games have been pretty easy to pick, but there have definitely been some early surprises. Our predicted scores have typically been pretty close to the actual scores, but Ryan Moralejo is the only writer to have correctly predicted the score of any of the games so far. Hopefully it doesn’t get any easier!

Matt Karpowicz: 8-2
Haven Cutko: 8-2
Ryan Moralejo: 7-3 (1 correct score)
Spencer Smead: 7-3
Cameron Carlson: 7-3

Colby @ Hamilton, 12pm, Clinton, NY

If we picked our Game of the Week based solely on competitiveness rather than championship implications, this game would absolutely be in the running. However, both of these teams have yet to prove that they belong in that conversation. Hamilton has been the one team the CBB schools have been reasonably within reach of beating in recent years. If any of the Maine teams want to get respect outside of the CBB, they need to start by beating Hamilton. Colby was able to do this last year, which suggested that they may be trending towards competitiveness in the middle tier of the league. However, starting off 0-2 and only putting up 10 points in each game has provided everyone with a reality check. Hamilton will provide less of a challenge for the Mules than Wesleyan and Amherst, so this is Coach Cosgrove’s best chance yet to show the league what his team can do. They will need to contain Continentals RB David Kagan, who has gotten off to a terrific start this season in leading the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Hamilton also leads the league in total rushing yards. Both teams have talented QBs who will be looking to prove themselves this Saturday. If you aren’t focused on end of season results and just want to see competitive NESCAC football, this should be an entertaining game to watch. 

Hamilton proved that they can (sometimes) compete with the league’s middle tier last season when they beat Wesleyan. Colby has not been able to show this with any team outside of the CBB except in their victory last year against Hamilton. On top of that, having to make the seven hour haul across New England never makes a team’s task easier. Hamilton has shown a little more offensive firepower this season (albeit mostly against Bowdoin), so I’ll take them in a tight one. 

SS: Colby 31, Hamilton 17 
CC: Colby 24, Hamilton 21 
HC: Hamilton 24, Colby 20 
MK: Hamilton 28, Colby 21 
RM: Hamilton 34, Colby 24

Writers’ Pick: Hamilton

Bowdoin @ Williams, 1pm, Williamstown, MA

Austin McCrum is doing everything he can to keep the Polar Bears competitive

You have to feel for the Polar Bears. Having to visit a Williams team that just put up 44 on Tufts certainly is not ideal…especially not coming off a game where you got 60 pieced. The scary thing is that the Williams offense very well could be just as good as Trinity’s this year. Polar Bears, just try to make it through these next couple weeks injury-free and you will (hopefully) get to play some close games at the end of the season. I hate to kick Bowdoin while they’re already down, but it’s very difficult to find any bright spots from their performance last week. It’s promising to see that they have some balance in their offense, with six players registering a carry and seven registering a catch. Now, the next step is for these guys to do this more often and maybe take that ball into the endzone while they’re at it. Easy, right?

I wish I could say that this is a trap game for Williams, but at this point I honestly think it would be a reach to even call it that. The Ephs’ offense showed what they were capable of last week and absolutely shredded a solid Tufts defense. Bobby Maimaron and Frank Stola looked like Montana and Rice, linking up for 13 completions, 233 yards and 4 touchdowns. They also got their run game going, as both Maimaron and RB Dan Vaughn were within 10 yards of the century mark. Even kicker Andrew Schreibstein (whom I personally ripped on after his brutal first week) stepped up big time. He was 3/3 on field goals and 5/5 on extra points while earning Special Teams Player of the Week. The CBB contests can’t come soon enough for Bowdoin. 

SS: Williams 38, Bowdoin 7
CC: Williams 42, Bowdoin 7
HC: Williams 42, Bowdoin 7 
MK: Williams 35, Bowdoin 6 
RM: Williams 49, Bowdoin 10

Writers’ Pick: Williams

Amherst @ Tufts, 1pm, Medford, MA

This is another game that was under consideration for our Game of the Week. While it very well could live up to all expectations, it’s hard to feel good about Tufts’ chances after Williams absolutely had their way with them last week. At the same time, we still can’t forget that it’s a Jumbos team that also held Trinity to eight points just a week earlier. This inconsistency is the opposite of what Amherst has shown us so far, as they have played solid football since a rocky first half at Bates and have wins against the Bobcats and Colby under their belt. It’s been the usual suspects making plays for the Mammoths. Senior QB Ollie Eberth and classmate James O’Regan have already connected for 243 yards and three touchdowns. Tufts shut down Trinity’s three headed monster of receivers in their first game, but got lit up by Bobby Maimaron and Frank Stola of Williams a week later. If the Jumbos’ week one caliber defense returns, Amherst will have their hands full- the Mammoths have had a bit of a cakewalk so far. However, Coach Civetti’s first priority should be figuring out who Tufts will start under center. Trevon Woodson replaced Jacob Carroll in the midst of the beatdown last weekend and completed 12 of 17 passes, but also threw a pick. Neither quarterback has shown a ton of promise yet, so this week of practice will likely be a big factor in determining who gets the start on Saturday. Whoever we see out there would be smart to throw the ball to WR OJ Armstrong, who sits third in the league at 13 receptions and added a touchdown last week to boot. If the Jumbos cannot create holes for RB Mike Pedrini, they will need to rely on Armstrong and likely Woodson to make plays. Amherst’s defense does not look like they have fallen off since losing Andrew Yamin, only allowing 11.5 points per game. While we have not seen Tufts’ offense play to its potential, it’s a safe bet to say that they will have a little more firepower up their sleeve than Bates and Colby did. 

If Tufts’ performances in the last two weeks were reversed, I might feel differently about this game. And it would be especially interesting to see them, Trinity, and Hamilton all get wins this week, which would put six teams at 2-1 while leaving Wesleyan unscathed at the top. Realistically, though, they have not shown me enough on offense for me to predict them outplaying a traditionally strong Amherst D- especially in the midst of a possible quarterback controversy. Amherst is well coached, veteran-led and will be ready for their first legitimate test. 

SS: Tufts 21, Amherst 17
CC: Amherst 20, Tufts 14
HC: Amherst 24, Tufts 13
MK: Amherst 20, Tufts 14
RM: Amherst 27, Tufts 23

Writers’ Pick: Amherst

Trinity @ Middlebury, 1pm, Middlebury, VT

Trinity clearly had some steam to blow off coming into last week’s contest against Bowdoin 0-1, and Bowdoin is a great team to play if you like to blow off steam by scoring touchdowns. The Bantams’ offense woke up and dropped a seemingly effortless 61 points, led by receiver Devante Reid’s four touchdowns. Trinity successfully reminded everyone who the NESCAC’s daddy is, but their backs are still up against the wall and they can’t afford another loss this week against a very game Middlebury team. This is not a team that is used to losing more than one game. In fact, they did not have a losing record at any point in a season from 2001 up until their week one defeat at Tufts. As always, Devanney and company will feel the pressure to continue their tradition of dominance heading up to Vermont. The Panthers will have their own motivation after getting completely obliterated to the tune of a 48-0 loss last year in the Coop. This is our Game of the Week so I won’t go into all the details, but this Middlebury defense is not what it was last year. They sit right behind Trinity at second in yards allowed per game. Trinity will need to come out sharp from the jump if they want to continue their campaign for a four-peat. Fortunately for them, I have enough faith in their traditional success and their offensive weapons to pick them in a good one. 

SS: Trinity 28, Middlebury 24 
CC: Trinity 31, Middlebury 21 
HC: Trinity 27, Middlebury 20
MK: Trinity 31, Middlebury 17
RM: Trinity 27, Middlebury 14

Writers’ Pick: Trinity

Bates @ Wesleyan, 1pm, Middletown, CT

Wesleyan has sort of been sneaking under the league’s radar because they have yet to take on the heavyweights. They shouldn’t be slept on, though, because they currently have the best chance to be on top of the standings Saturday night at 3-0. This is looking like a Cardinals team carried by their defense, which is especially impressive given that they had the league’s best defensive player, DL Taj Gooden, on the sidelines in Week 2 while he served a suspension for shoving a referee in Week 1. Even without him, the defense has already recovered two fumbles and picked off six passes (most in the league), so Bates will need to be especially careful with the football. Ashton Scott is looking like the guy under center, passing for six TDs while also rushing for 150+ yards so far this year. 

Tyler Bridge has been one of the lone bright spots for the Bobcats so far

Everyone wants the CBB teams to be more competitive with the rest of the league, so it was disheartening to see Bates get shut out by Middlebury after a promising first week performance against Amherst. Getting a win may be a stretch, but Bates should be doing all it can not to take another step back this week. While their overall stats have not looked good, there are certainly some individual performances to feel good about. Freshman LB Tony Hooks had nine tackles last week, including three for loss. Another freshman (and a Maine native), running back Tyler Bridge has stepped in to take some carries and has shown promise as a 6’3” speedster. So, while the scoreboard may not be what the Bobcats want to see right now, their fans should be excited about the team’s young talent and coach Malik Hall’s ability to recruit. To add insult to injury, Bates’ two top QBs have a concussion and mono, so whoever we see come out as their third stringer will have the pleasure of figuring out Wesleyan’s defense on the road. Hang in there Bobcats, your schedule gets easier. 

HC: Wesleyan 31, Bates 0
CC: Wesleyan 31, Bates 6 
SS: Wesleyan 28, Bates 13 
MK: Wesleyan 31, Bates 7 
RM: Wesleyan 27, Bates 13

Writers’ Pick: Wesleyan

Mixing Things Up: Week 2 Power Rankings

(4) 1. Middlebury (2-0)

6.5 points. That’s what this Middlebury defense is allowing through the first two games of the season. While this number is (in all likelihood) unsustainable as we venture deeper into the season, it undoubtedly sets the tone going forward in addition to letting fellow conference opponents that scoring multiple times on this defense will be quite a challenge. Quarterback Will Jernigan ‘21 didn’t even need to rely on his legs this past Saturday against Bates, as the junior threw for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns. What’s more impressive is that despite the absence of running back Peter Scibilia ‘20, the Panther offense is averaging a league-best 23 first downs per game; this number tells me the Panthers are sustaining long drives and winning the time of possession battle, which is key for keeping the defense off the field and rested. That defensive prowess will be challenged mightily at home against the Bantams this coming Saturday.

(5) 2. Williams (1-1)

Yes they’re 1-1, so what? Saturday’s annihilation of Tufts was extremely impressive: the Ephs put up 34 points by half and could have easily hung 50 on the Jumbos. Frank Stola ‘21 had the Jumbos’ secondary on skates all afternoon, breaking multiple school records in receptions (13), receiving yards (233) and touchdowns (4) in a single game. Bobby Maimaron ‘21 also had a fantastic bounce-back game, accounting for nearly 400 all-purpose yards and all five scores. The defense has been superb through two games, allowing a combined 25 points to Middlebury and Tufts, two of the better teams in the ‘CAC. Up next is a Bye, errr, I mean Bowdoin.

(1) 3. Amherst (2-0)

The people down in Amherst won’t be too pleased seeing their undefeated squad behind a one-loss team, and the fact that it’s Williams will further infuriate Mammoth supporters. However, let’s put this into perspective: Williams could easily be 2-0, losing on a last-minute touchdown on the road to Middlebury, then turned around and throttled a team that defeated Trinity. On the other hand, Amherst has defeated bottom dwellers Bates and Colby by 14 points each. Wins are wins, but neither of them was done in convincing fashion. The offense in particular has started slowly and is highly inefficient in the red zone, coming away with points on just three of nine times. Conor Kennelly ’22 went 2/4 on field goals against Bates, and followed up that performance by having a field goal and extra point blocked against Colby. Punter Henry Atkeson ‘20 actually took over for Kennelly midway through the game, converting a field goal before having a 34 yarder of his own blocked. Ollie Eberth ‘20 (on top of not leading a touchdown drive when inside the opponent’s 25 yard line) is only completing 54% of his passes, and has an interception in both games. Tougher defenses await the Mammoths, and this offensive inefficiency will not put them in a position to win the NESCAC Championship. 

(3) 4. Trinity (1-1)

Bowdoin had no answer for DeVante Reid or the rest of the Bantam offense 

It’s safe to say the Bantams’ offense had some frustrations to let out after failing to eclipse 10 points against the Jumbos. Poor Bowdoin served as a punching bag en route to a 61-7 demolition. Seamus Lambert ‘22 had virtually zero problems throwing the ball, racking up an astounding 391 yards and five touchdowns on a mere 13 completions. Surprisingly enough, the leading receiver for Trinity on Saturday was not Jonathan Girard ‘21 or Koby Schofer ‘20, but sophomore DeVante Reid ‘22. After catching three passes for zero yards against Tufts, Reid burst onto the scene with a monstrous game in which he caught six passes for 246 yards and four TD’s. Trinity clearly boasts the best receiving corps in the NESCAC, and it’ll need all of them to excel on the road in what most certainly is a do-or-die game against Middlebury.

(6) 5. Wesleyan (2-0)

The Cardinals continue to trend in the right direction, but Saturday’s game against Hamilton was (for 45 minutes) a little too close for comfort. Leading 14-10 at the start of the fourth quarter, Ashton Scott ‘22 led an 8 play, 80 yard drive to give Wesleyan a two-score lead, and a late pick-six from Ben Thaw ‘20 finally put the game out of reach. The defense continues to wreak havoc on opposing offenses, forcing a league-leading eight turnovers, six sacks, and is allowing a mere 10 ppg. Scott is completing close to 61% of his passes, and boasts a 6:1 touchdown to interception ratio. He’ll look to keep it going against a very porous Bobcat defense.

(2) 6. Tufts (1-1)

Everything came crashing down for the Jumbos in Williamstown. The same defense that stifled Trinity allowed 503 yards against Williams; in fact, Tufts allowed more yards to Williams in the first half (289) than to Trinity in the entire game (281) (the fact that Frank Stola abused their secondary makes me seriously consider how the WR combo at Trin didn’t make any sort of impact). Furthermore, quarterback Jacob Carroll ‘20 was benched late in the first half for freshman Trevon Woodson ‘23 after completing just 8 passes and tossing an interception. Woodson was more explosive with the ball (12/17 for 124 yards and 13 rushes for 79 yards) but turned the ball over twice. This is not the type of controversy you want to have before facing Amherst, so it will be interesting to see who Coach Civetti rolls out to start the game Saturday. 

(7) 7. Hamilton (1-1)

David Kagan continued to run well for the Continentals despite the loss

As previously mentioned in the Cardinals’ synopsis, the Continentals hung around for 3+ quarters on Saturday before fading off. Running back David Kagan ‘20 had another solid performance, totaling 94 yards on 16 attempts and hauling in seven receptions for an additional 46 yards. Kagan now leads all running backs in yards per game by a sizable margin, and given quarterback Kenny Gray’s ‘20 struggles as of late, Kagan should be getting 25+ touches a game. Until defenses begin to zone in on the run, there’s no reason a guy averaging 8 yards a carry shouldn’t be touching the ball as frequently as possible. Colby’s defense should not only provide Kagan room to run, but the Mules’ poor pass defense should give Gray a chance to redeem himself for his performance against the Cardinals.  

(8) 8. Colby (0-2)

I really thought this team could potentially achieve 4 wins with a few upsets this season, but two weeks in and that thought is far gone. The offense has been just average in terms of yardage gained, but quarterback Matt Hersh ‘22 really struggled against Amherst (155 yards and an INT). The defense has been downright atrocious against teams with solid but not fantastic offensive units, allowing close to 430 yards per game; what’s more concerning is that the run defense is virtually non-existent, allowing 215 yards per game. Hamilton is a winnable game, but if the defensive line continues to allow 200+ yards on the ground, the Mules will leave New York 0-3. 

(9) 9. Bates (0-2)

The losing streak is now at 12 for the Bobcats stretching back to 2017, and Saturday’s no-show against the Panthers provided more questions than answers on both ends of the ball. Bates is averaging a league-worst 6.5 ppg and does not have a quarterback it can rely on to consistently move the ball downfield. Brendan Costa ‘21 is last in the NESCAC in passing yards/game and efficiency rating amongst starters. He was benched for freshman Liam Foley ‘23 midway through Saturday’s til with Middlebury, but he fared no better, going 7-19 for 58 yards. Combined, the two quarterbacks have thrown for 281 yards through two games…eight other NESCAC quarterbacks have single-handedly surpassed that number, and three of them have higher single-game passing yard performances. The run defense is not too shabby, but the secondary (specifically the corners) are playing abysmally at the moment, allowing 264 yards per game. Next week’s visit to Wesleyan should* be easier on the defense, but the offense might see more of the same problems. 

(10) 10. Bowdoin (0-2)

We knew Bowdoin would be near the bottom of the standings upon entering 2019, but 61 points to any opponent is embarrassing. It was like watching an FBS team take on a pretty bad FCS team, to be quite honest. The offense failed to surpass 200 total yards after a respectable showing against Hamilton, and more trouble awaits them when they hit the road to take on Williams. The Polar Bears are averaging well under 100 yards per game on the ground, and desperately need someone in that department to step up and help quarterback Austin McCrum ‘21.