Category: Stock Report

Playoff Baseball: Stock Report 5/8

And then there were four. NESCAC playoff baseball is here with a few surprises. Bates came out of nowhere to claim yet another playoff appearance. Tufts remained the top team in the East. Wesleyan and Amherst can no longer claim dominance in the West. Williams and Middlebury took their spots. Colby didn’t win a conference game all year. On a positive note, there’s nowhere to go but up for the Mules! NESCAC playoff baseball promises close games, great pitching, and clutch hitting. Let’s take a look at my stock report:

Long: Whatever’s going on in Lewiston, ME

Brace yourself, Bobcats fans, you’re not going to appreciate what I am about to say: Lewiston has to be the worst location of all NESCAC schools. And yes, I am writing that in my dorm room in Middletown, CT. Regardless of their location, the Bobcats have been a model of consistency for the past few years. When Coach Leonard left for Middlebury three years ago, the growth could’ve ended for Bates. Jon Martin, a former Vassar College coach, was named head coach shortly after. Vassar, a school who boasts alumni such as Meryl Streep and Phoebe from Friends (Lisa Kudrow), isn’t known for its athletics. Martin has led Bates to three consecutive playoff appearances in a division with Trinity and Tufts. Bates has always relied on their strong pitching and clutch hitting to win some ball games. The Bobcats have never been able to get over the hump. Is this their year? It certainly looks like the Bobcats have improved on the hitting side with Christian Beal ’21 and Jack Arend ’20 hitting in the high .300’s. Nolan Collins ’20 has been an absolute force yet again with a team high in innings and a 2.44 ERA. Of all the teams in the playoffs, Bates has the best matchup in game one against Williams. If the Bobcats take game one, they will be in the driver’s seat for the rest of the tournament. I am excited to see if Bates can finally get over the hump this year – it would be tough to have three straight playoff appearances coupled with three straight early exits. Arend, Beal, Collins, and co. may have the swagger to get them over the top, though. It will be fun to watch.

Short: Amherst and Wesleyan

If you were to ask me before the season began who would represent the West in the playoffs, I would say Wesleyan and Amherst. Wes made the playoffs a year ago, and their only real impact player who graduated was Matt Jeye. I would’ve expected Mike McCaffrey ’19 and Kelvin Sosa ’21 to have dominant seasons again. McCaffrey only appeared in three conference games, which was a dramatic decrease from last year. Wesleyan didn’t seem to have the same clutch factor they did a year ago. Alex Cappitelli ’20 had an off year for his high standards, and the weakness in the lineup game from middle to bottom. Clutch hitting was a real issue for the Cardinals. Amherst was fresh off a NESCAC championship the year before. One could speculate that a fall was possible for Amherst. The losses of Coach Hamm, Harry Roberson, and Max Steinhorn proved to be too much to overcome. Amherst has always been a very resilient bunch, so I was surprised they couldn’t get a playoff bid in a so-so conference. Middlebury taking a playoff spot wasn’t all that surprising to me. I truly believe getting swept by Wes to start the 2018 season just crushed the Panthers the rest of the way. It was a sophomore slump for Midd. The likes of Colby Morris ’19 and Justin Han ’20 drove the Panthers this year to a playoff appearance. Amherst and Wesleyan are the usual suspects representing the West based on previous years, so I am quite shocked that neither of them made it in this year. I am curious to see how they bounce back next year especially with Wesleyan graduating many key players.

Close to a Photo Finish: Stock Report 5/2

Our playoff picture has firmly come into focus headed into our final weekend. Following a riveting last set of games, highlighted by an incredible Tufts series win over Trinity, we have (finally!) been blessed by the scheduling gods with a terrific weekend of games to determine who will compete for a NESCAC crown. Let’s find out who’s feeling good and bad heading into the last regular season weekend.

Stock Up

Final Weekend Drama

The NESCAC baseball schedule and general competitive format has been a topic of much negative discussion around these parts, but I will give credit where credit is due. This weekend is set up to be an absolute thriller thanks to a touch of good fortune, most notably in the West. Middlebury and Amherst will square off, both at 5-4, while Williams (5-4) faces Wesleyan (4-5), with 4 teams all still in playoff contention going at it head-to-head. It’s fairly simple—the series winner of Middlebury and Amherst is headed to the postseason, that much is certain. The Williams and Wesleyan results will be a little muddier thanks to the tiebreakers. Wesleyan will be rooting for an Amherst sweep along with a sweep win of their own, in which case the 8-4 Mammoths and the 7-5 Cardinals would make it in. A Middlebury series victory could be promising for Wesleyan as well, given that they hold the tiebreaker over Amherst and Williams as well if they’re able to win at least two this weekend. A Williams series win puts them at 7-5 and into the tournament, which would be a massive achievement for this Ephs team. There are two scenarios that end in a three-team tie for second (Midd, Williams, Wesleyan OR Amherst, Williams, Wesleyan at 6-6). In the first case, the second playoff team would be decided by overall winning percentage as each team would be 3-3 against one another. The team that would go to the playoffs would be between Midd and Williams–It’d be Williams who would hold an extremely narrow advantage over the winning percentage. In the second case, Wesleyan would be in as they would have won series against both Williams and Amherst.

Bates’ Playoff Chances

I simply cannot believe the Bobcats might (and almost certainly will) pull this one off again. They have quietly put together a very nice season, even appearing in the last New England regional rankings. After sweeping Colby and receiving the good news that Tufts took two out of three from Trinity, Bates sits at 7-3 while Trinity is in the clubhouse at 8-4. The Bobcats need just one win on account of their series win versus the Bantams, and their last two games are against the 6-21-2 Bowdoin Polar Bears. After sneaking into the playoffs last year, they somehow might just do it again, barring a shocking turn of events versus their in-state rival this weekend.

JP Knight’s Clutch Gene

Are you kidding me?!? Tufts was down 6-5 in the ninth inning against Trinity in Game 2. The bases were loaded, but there were two outs. In fact, they were down to their last strike. But then OF JP Knight ’20 struck. He deposited a grand slam over the fence to give Tufts a 9-6 lead which they would hold and turn into the clinching of a NESCAC Tournament berth. It capped off a 4-4, 2 HR, 7 RBI day for Knight, who was this week’s Player of the Week and on the D3baseball.com national team of the week. Pretty damn good week if you ask me. It was perhaps a turning point for the Jumbos, who could’ve been looking pretty sticky at 7-3 heading into the final weekend. Instead it clinched their spot in the NESCAC tournament, and as we mentioned, could prove to be a dagger for Trinity.

Doug Schaffer’s Player of the Year Chances

I’ve been hesitant to talk about this as a fellow Eph, but with just three conference games left and with Williams well within striking distance to improbably make the NESCAC Tournament, it’s finally time to talk about Doug Schaffer ’19. The senior infielder started out white hot, and while the rest of the league waited for him to cool off, he simply refused to do so. He leads the league with a .455 batting average, and has 14 more RBI than anyone else with 45. The no home runs are a red flag I suppose, but does that really matter with the rest of the stats? I doubt it. Now, it would be tough to give the POY to a guy who doesn’t make the postseason, which is why this upcoming weekend series against Wesleyan is crucial. If Williams wins this series and heads to the postseason, Schaffer has my vote.

Stock Down

Morale in Hartford

There simply isn’t anything else to talk about at this stage in the game. For the second straight year it looks as if Trinity is going to inexplicably miss the NESCAC tournament. For the second straight year, you could make the case that the Bantams are the best team in the league, and they might find themselves watching at home. Last season they needed just one victory to clinch a postseason appearance in their final series at home against Bates, but they couldn’t get it done. This season they had Tufts down 6-3 to start the 9th and even down to their last strike in a game that would have clinched a playoff spot before JP Knight stepped in and put the Jumbos ahead. It was a quietly tough battle to begin with this year, especially after Trinity lost their series to Bates, but after Bates swept Colby to move to 7-3, it is seriously looking like a reality that history will repeat itself. Last year they were 7-5 and missed out thanks to some tiebreakers, and this year could feel even worse—missing out at 8-4. The Bantams will be the biggest Bowdoin fans alive this weekend, needing them to somehow find a way to take both games off Bates. If not, it happened again—somehow. For a team with this much talent who is able to do this much damage outside the NESCAC, it is really surprising that they, yet again, couldn’t close out the most important games of their season. Is this a result of a serious lack of clutch genes from the Bantams? Maybe. Is it because of poor coaching and questionably managed games? Probably. Whatever it is, something isn’t right. The question now just may be: is this irreversible damage to the confidence and psyche in Hartford?

Editor’s Note: Having said all that, however, Trinity still was ranked 3rd in the latest New England Regional Rankings, almost certainly giving them an at-large Pool C bid to the NCAA tournament. While it is highly unusual that a team that misses their conference tournament could make the NCAA tournament, the top four teams in the regional rankings always get bids to the tourney, so at least in this moment, the Bantams’ season will continue past next weekend.

The Long Game; Stock Report 4/26

This weekend of NESCAC baseball has a lot in store for us. The East division will be settled this weekend – Tufts and Trinity face off in Hartford to help determine if Bates still has a shot at the postseason, while the Bobcats will battle to stave off elimination. The West is still wide open. Every team is still in it. Wes will play Midd in a big series this weekend. Williams will play Hamilton, too. There’s a lot still up in the air, which makes it an exciting weekend of baseball. Given these conditions, I believe there are a few undervalued and overvalued teams and players. Here’s my stock report for 4/26.

Long: John Casey

Warren Buffett has always been into value investments. He would invest in companies like Coca Cola and Geico early on because he believed these were quality, undervalued blue chip companies that would outperform expectations. It’s easy to jump on an equity when it has already shown immense growth, but hard to invest when it has hit rock bottom, and every investor says it will always go down. Well, I want to long Coach John Casey of Tufts. If I were Buffett, I would’ve invested in Casey in the early ‘90’s before his reign of terror on the NESCAC. I believe that Tufts, directly based off of the way they’re playing now, will continue to grow and dominate. Walking around their facility, I can see why they win so much: their culture is different. Baseball isn’t really just a sport for them. It’s not academics 1, baseball 2 at Tufts. It’s academics 1 and baseball 1. It’s almost like they’re running a D1 program among the NESCACs. Casey has implemented a system that produces game changing players like Ed Bernstein (check out his senior ERA) and Malcolm Nachmanoff just to name a few. These guys dominate the game, and make baseball really fun to watch. Tufts is playing Trin this weekend, which will be a good preview of a playoff series for sure. I have full faith that Casey will find a way to get it done. Trinity is talented, but Tufts has been there and done that multiple times. Trinity hasn’t been on the big stage as much. Let’s see who comes out on top.

Short: Wesleyan

It pains me to say this because Wesleyan is my team; however, I must stay impartial and follow my fundamental analysis. Middlebury will win the series against West this weekend. I am not saying this because I believe Wes is weak. The Cardinals still boast a powerful lineup with Danny Rose ’19, Andrew Keith ’19, and Andrew Kauf ’20. Leadoff man Alex Capitelli ’20 is hitting below .300 this year, which makes it seem like the world is blowing up. Capitelli is one of the most consistent players in the league. The man is still playing solid baseball, but not quite up to par with his season last year. My problem with Wes isn’t necessarily their lineup (albeit they miss a guy like Matt Jeye dearly in the middle). The Cardinals pitching has been pretty brutal this year. Forget about starting pitching for a second, Wesleyan’s main problem from last year was finding a guy to share the burden of a late inning with Pat Clare ’19. Clare is great for one or two innings. Like any reliever, he gets figured out when he stays later in games. I don’t think Coach Woodworth has found that really reliable number two reliever yet, which is crucial in the late innings further on in the season. The starting pitching has been mediocre as well. Sosa and McCaffrey don’t look the same as last year. Sosa’s funky delivery and solid repertoire of pitches still makes him a force. I am not entirely sure what’s going on with Mike McCaffrey ’19. He hasn’t pitched nearly as well as last season. Wesleyan’s talent has to be up there with any NESCAC team, but I feel like it’s not being utilized to its full potential yet. This weekend against Midd is really make or break for the Cardinals. I had high hopes coming into the season for Joe Mescall ’21 and David Redfield ’21, who are two quality relievers. Redfield had an unbelievable summer season, and Mescall has brought his usual swagger to the mound. These are two guys who I believe, if utilized correctly, will help the pen enormously. Redfield has been sidelined by injury, so his health has a direct effect on Wesleyan’s season. Going on the road to Midd won’t be easy. If the Cardinals can string together at least two wins, I see them having a playoff shot. Pitching may hamper them, though.

Not Much Left: Stock Report 4/18

Believe it or not, we only have a few weekends left of NESCAC baseball. It feels like just yesterday when we were finishing up our last mid term before Spring break. Spring was upon us with the glowing prospect of a fresh start for many NESCAC teams. The East division vs West division couldn’t be more different right now. The East is headlined by Tufts and Trinity (and sort of Bates). It’s fair to say that Bowdoin and especially Colby are out of the playoff hunt. In the West, it’s really anyone’s ballgame. Amherst leads the conference at 5-4, but with Midd, Williams, and Wesleyan tied for second at 3-3, a positive weekend can swing the standings. Let’s take a look at my stock report from this past weekend.

My longs:

Hamilton

That’s right. I said it. I think Hamilton has a serious shot at earning a playoff spot this year. If I were a true investor, Hamilton would be considered a growth investment. Not an investment like Lyft where profitability is unlikely and the increased vetting process of drivers may seriously hurt the industry. I categorize Hamilton like a Pinterest or Slack. Hamilton has been largely flying under the radar for years in a division that includes the likes of Wesleyan, Amherst, and Midd. Hamilton could always hit without question – their Achilles heel for years has been defense and so-so pitching. I watched Wesleyan’s weekend series two weeks ago against Hamilton. Not only did Hamilton outplay Wes, but they did so in a way that stuck out to me: they were ultra-confident. The infield made clutch plays. Pitchers got outs in critical situations. Everyone did their job to perfection. Hamilton may be sitting in last right now in the conference, but I think that’s only temporary. Wesleyan isn’t the Wesleyan it used to be. Midd is streaky. Williams won’t make it until the end. Amherst graduated so many guys, it’s hard to tell if they’re still dominant. Let’s see.

Matt Koperniak

Koperniak is my value investment. When I analyze the fundamentals of his game, I understand why he’s a leader in many of the main statistical hitting categories. He has the most ABs of many in the league, while still hitting .376. All NESCAC pitchers are definitely throwing the kitchen sink at Koperniak, but he has had an answer for everything and everyone. He’s an all-around player that is exciting to watch. Trinity goes against Hamilton in a non-conference affiar this weekend. I’m really excited to see how Hamilton deals with Koperniak. Like I said before, there’s no question he is the best hitter in the league right now. Will Hamilton still have the same swagger they’ve shown all season by going right after him? Or will they stay away, and nibble the corners. You can’t miss against Koperniak. He’ll make you pay for the smallest of mistakes. We’ll see how that turns out.

My shorts:

Colby

I shorted Bowdoin in my last stock report because they were winless in league play. Now, it’s time to short their local rival. It’s tough for me to do this to Colby because a number of their current players and former players have helped me with pieces throughout the years. The Mules haven’t won a conference game all year. They suprisingly got swept by Bowdoin, and unsuprisingly were swept by Trinity. This weekend doesn’t get any better. The Mules will face Trinity for a three game conference set. The biggest problem for the Mules right now is hitting. The team only has scored fifteen runs in conference play. The pitching hasn’t been terrible, but only scoring fifteen runs in compared to Tufts’ forty-three tells the story. A high point for the Mules is William Wessman. He has played well throughout the year, hitting .316. It is unfortunate that the team hasn’t picked him up. If Colby can somehow beat Tufts, that would help a miserable season.

The West

The West has been stronger than the East in the past few years. Obviously you have Tufts dominating the East under Casey’s tenure, but beyond that, Trinity has been up and down. The Maine schools haven’t been great either. Wesleyan, Amherst, and Middlebury have been putting up competitive teams year in and year out. The West is good this year don’t get me wrong, but they’re not dominant like in years past. Tufts and Trinity are dominant. I don’t see any West team beating those two. The depth in hitting that both teams have outweigh any team from the West. This will be a big weekend for the West as conference games will differentiate teams from one another. We shall see.

Not Quite Halfway: Stock Report 4/10

With 6 of the 10 teams in the league having already played two divisional series, the playoff picture is slowly starting to take shape. It seems like everyone just got back from spring break just yesterday, but we’re all of a sudden staring at some series’ with huge playoff implications. How is everyone heading into those series? Let’s find out.

Stock Up

Parity…maybe?

I don’t want to get too excited about this one just yet, but is it possible we’re on the verge of seeing some fresh faces in the playoffs this year? In the West, Middlebury leads the division at 2-1, but Amherst, Wesleyan, and Hamilton are all hot on their heels at 3-3. Williams is technically in last place, but at 1-2 and a home series against Midd this weekend, a series win would bring them right into the fold at 3-3 or even 4-2. Hamilton’s series win over Wesleyan was surely the biggest reason for the crowded standings, taking 2 out of 3 in fairly impressive fashion. The most impressive thing was that Gavin Schaefer-Hood ’21 actually pitched in their Game 1 loss, outdueled by the Cardinal combo of Kelvin Sosa ’21 and Pat Clare ’19. The Conts won the next two to take the series behind the arms of Brian Lawson ’20 (4 IP, 0 R) and Chris Keane ’20 (3.2 IP, 0 R, SV) in Game 2, and rode the bats in the rubber match in a 11-5 Game 3, led by senior 2B Jordan Northrup’s 4 RBI. In the East, Bowdoin pulled off a shocking 3-0 sweep over their in-state rivals Colby, their first and only three wins of the season, while Bates picked up a much-needed series win over Trinity to keep them firmly in the hunt for the postseason. Trinity and Tufts still appear to be the class of the division, being the two teams with the best records. But baseball is funny like that—one bad weekend here or there and a team like Bates can sneak back into the playoffs again. Bowdoin might be 3-14-1 but the only record that matters now is that they’re 3-3. Will we see some unlikely faces in the NESCAC tournament? Probably not. But after this weekend, those doors are still wide open.

Helping Your Own Cause

Jack Wilhoite is doing everything he can on both sides of the ball

As I just mentioned, the biggest shocker of the weekend was Bowdoin’s 3-0 sweep over Colby. I wrote earlier this year after their incredibly poor start that the Polar Bears had much more talent than their dismal record would indicate. Look no further for that indicator of talent than the performances from seniors Jack Wilhoite ’19 and Brandon Lopez ’19. Wilhoite hit .429 with 2 HRs and 6 RBIs in that series. One of those home runs turned out to be the decisive hit in a 4-3 Game 2 win, a game in which he pitched the final 3 innings, allowing no hits or runs and picking up the save. This came on the heels of a complete game from Lopez in the opener, allowing just three hits and no earned runs. He also hit .333 and added 4 RBIs at the plate. To see one guy doing something like that both pitching and hitting is extremely rare, so to see two guys doing it on the same team is absolutely insane. Bowdoin obviously has an incredibly uphill battle the rest of the way, but with two talents like that, crazier things have happened.

Stock Down

Colby’s Playoff Chances

Well you had to know this one was coming. Bowdoin’s 9-1 win on Saturday over Colby not only completed their sweep of the Mules, but also stretched Colby’s losing streak to 8. Being swept by both Williams and Bowdoin has their promising 6-1 start looking like a thing of the past. They got nothing from their pitching staff except for 5 solid innings from Frank Driscoll ’21 (2 ER, 5 K) in Game 2, but the bats went quiet in a 4-3 loss. Nothing is clicking for them at all and it’s only going to get worse, with Trinity, Tufts, and Bates comprising their last 9 divisional games. This is not going to be Colby’s year.

NESCAC Scheduling

It really isn’t that big of a conference…

I’m going to be beating this dead horse again this year—until something changes. After an exciting weekend of games that have shaken up both divisions, we still don’t really know what is going on because not every team has played the same amount of games. Middlebury, Williams, Colby, and Tufts have all only played 3 while the rest of the league have played 6. This weekend Wesleyan and Bates are playing an out of division series, so they’ll stay at 6 while the other teams will move up to 9. It just doesn’t make sense to have the games staggered like this. I know there is an odd number of teams (5) in each division, but the league should consider trying to get some of these games to be played during the week more often, like they’re sort they did when Williams played Trinity on Tuesday night. I know travel and academics will always make this an imperfect process, but it’s just unfair that some teams have more clarity on where they are in the standings than others. At the very least, find a way to make sure every team plays their final divisional series as close to the same weekend as possible. Or just get rid of the divisions in general. Actually, you know what? Just do that.

Editor’s Note: The Centennial Conference in Pennsylvania actually has a terrific model for division-less conference play. All non-conference games are at the start of the year and once conference play begins everyone stops playing non-conference games. Everyone plays everyone in the conference twice – Tuesday and Thursday against the same team and then a Saturday doubleheader against a different team. Four games every week means pitching depth will be even more important and we would likely see more runs scored. If the NESCAC is worried about travel schedules then set it up so that the Tuesday/Thursday games are against teams who were previously in the same division (i.e. they’ll be geographically closer) and the weekend doubleheaders are when you can cross over. I don’t think it takes a genius to come up with a better system than the one currently in place.

One in the Books: Stock Report 4/1

Well NESCAC baseball fans, the conference season is upon us. That means it is unlikely to see a 22-3 game with six homers that go over four hundred feet. The warmth of Florida and Arizona aren’t felt anymore. The only thing that these players feel is the biting cold of New England’s early spring. The conference season kicked off with a bang. Defending league champs Amherst lost two out of three games to Little Three rival Wesleyan. Trin looks confident after taking a three game set against Bowdoin. A lot has transpired this past weekend. Let’s take a closer look at what/who I believe is up or down.

Stock up

Trinity pitching

Andrew DeRoche seems to have taken over as the Friday starter for the Bantams

Like in any sports conference, there is a traditional hierarchy. That being said, the NESCAC is one of the most competitive conferences in all of college athletics. Sweeps occur, but they are rare, in my opinion, due to the general parity in the league. Bowdoin hasn’t been strong in years. They have been a middle to lower tiered team in the East division. They have traditionally had trouble swinging the bad even with some solid pitching. This past weekend proved no different. Picking up three wins for Trin is huge. Even if the wins are against Bowdoin, a win is a win. In a league with not very many conference games, each one could be the difference between a playoff appearance or simply only studying for finals. Trinity was lead by their stellar pitching this past weekend. Andrew DeRoche ’20 went 7.1 innings allowing no earned while giving up three hits. Will Simeone ’22 went game two with an almost identical stat line. All hands were on deck for game three with Max Barsamian ’21 going four solid innings with Eric Mohl ’19 going another four innings unearned to pick up the win. Obviously Trin’s largest adversary in the East is Tufts. Tufts had a slow start last year, but ended up going all the way to the end with Amherst. After graduating a few big bats; however, I think it may be time for Trinity to take the reigns of dominance in the East.

Dominance of the West Division

Williams is 12-1 right now without having played a league game. They swept Colby this past weekend with big hitting numbers. Amherst dropped two against Wesleyan, playing sloppy defense for most of the weekend. The result would have easily been flipped if Amherst took care of the baseball. I am certain that a program like Amherst will clean up the defense, and be a force in the division like so many years prior. Middlebury looked strong too and has two perennial POY and Cy Young candidates like Han and Morris, making it no wonder why they’re off to a strong start. Coach Leonard has made the program strong again and it is clear that last year was an anomaly for the Panthers. They lost some close games due to a lack of clutch hitting and some bad breaks. Hamilton had a tough weekend against Midd but the Conts still play a style of baseball where they can absolutely rake and just need to find a way to close out games against strong teams. They have the talent, there’s no question about that, but what remains to be seen is if they can convert that talent to consistent winning. Wesleyan had a dismal spring trip. Hitting, like always, was strong, though their pitching was inconsistent at best. They certainly turned it around this weekend winning two against a strong foe in Amherst. The emergence after a season off for Andrew Keith ’19 is huge. He and freshman Adam Geibel ’22 are strong additions to the team. I can honestly see all these teams make a strong push for the division title. All West division games will be fun to watch.

Stock down

Maine Baseball

Brandon Lopez has been one of the only bright spots for Bowdoin so far

It has been a tough start for every Maine NESCAC team. Bowdoin has yet to win a game; Colby couldn’t contain Williams; Bates lost two out of three to Tufts. After making the playoffs a year ago, I thought Bates was on the rise. The Bobcat pitching has always been its bread and butter. Like everyone knows, you have to score runs to win ball games. Bates has always had trouble putting the ball in play. With Tufts and Trinity playing as well as they are, it is hard to envision Bates making the playoffs*. Bowdoin has yet to win a game. I repeat: Bowdoin has yet to win a game. Not only are they are shooting 0% in conference games, they haven’t beat a non-conference opponent either. A major reason why that’s the case is playing in California for spring training. The teams in California are much better than in Arizona or Florida. I understand wanting to play the top talent, but if you’re unable to pick up even one win, why go? Don’t you want to gain confidence? The addition of Coach Jesse Woods has certainly helped in the early-going, but it’s hard to envision them sustaining this come conference play. The Mules haven’t faced a team from the East division yet, but the games against Williams don’t show much hope. Colby has some talent and maybe even be able to steal a win or two, but the strength of Tufts and Trin makes it unlikely for a Maine team to make the playoffs.

*Editor’s note: Bates has had a mysterious way of performing just well enough to sneak into the playoffs over the last few years despite being one of the worst statistical teams. Tufts and Trinity look like the clear 1 and 2 in the east, but we’ve learned by now that you can never really count out the Bobcats.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

I have always liked this quote. It makes sense to me that the dominant teams will stay dominant no matter the changing circumstances. The Patriots, under Belichick, have been able to adapt and beat teams in a variety of ways. The San Antonio Spurs have been able to remain a dominant team even if they don’t have many ‘superstars’. Tufts lost a huge portion of their lineup, but here they are just as good as ever. Bates and Trinity are right there in the mix just like always. That’s the East, though. In the West, I think it’s a toss up. I think Midd will make the playoffs, but after that, it’s a crapshoot. Will Williams be dominant for the first time in a while? They have the pieces, and have played well so far. Will Wesleyan’s pitching come around? It showed up for the most part against Amherst. Will the departure of Brian Hamm from Amherst kill the intimidation the team radiated? We’ll see. It will be an exciting spring season without a doubt.

One Trophy Left: Stock Report 2/27

Stock Report 2/27

Congratulations to Amherst who won their 8th NESCAC Championship with a 62-56 victory over Hamilton on Sunday. The Mammoths earned the conference’s automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament, while Hamilton, Williams, and Middlebury snagged at-large bids as well. Getting four teams into the tournament is basically common practice for the NESCAC, so it’ll be exciting to see if anyone can do some real damage this year. Each of the remaining teams have looked terrific this season and they are all capable of competing with anyone. We’ll just have to wait and see who is left standing in a few weeks.

Stock up

Chance for a run by a NESCAC team

The selection committee was relatively nice to the NESCAC this year, putting the four teams that earned bids in regions that are very winnable. According to the D3 Massey Ratings (the only available computer-generated rankings for Division III basketball), the highest ranked team in the Williamstown regional is Plattsburgh State at 58 and the highest ranked team in the Clinton regional is Keene State at 49. For these two teams in particular there really isn’t a reason that they shouldn’t find themselves in the Sweet 16. Things are a little bit tougher for Amherst and Middlebury who each have one very strong team in their region, but I still think that things bode well for the conference as a whole. By the time the Sweet 16 rolls around we could have some serious chaos – a possible matchup between Amherst and Middlebury looms as well as the chance for Williams to be matched up with Pomona-Pitzer or another school from out west. The good thing is that March is all about chaos so we’re in for quite an exciting month of hoops.

Duo of Grant Robinson and Fru Che

Fru Che is about as lethal a scorer as they come

Nobody is hotter right now than the Amherst Mammoths, winners of 9 out of their last 10 including their last 3 in a row to win the NESCAC Championship. They’ve got one of the deepest lineups in the league, but they certainly wouldn’t be here without their star power. Grant Robinson ’21 and Fru Che ’21 have been the team’s leading scorers all season, but they really upped their play when it mattered. In the conference tournament these two accounted for 60% of the team’s offense (116 of 194 total points), guiding the team to three victories. They’re only sophomores, but they’ve played well beyond their years as the season has progressed. It’ll be interesting to see how well they handle the spotlight playing in their first NCAA Tournament game against Rosemont on Friday.

Stock down

Whoever picks the regional sites

I’m not one to throw myself into the fire for Amherst, but how in the world are they not hosting a regional? When I saw that they weren’t hosting I was surprised, but I assumed that it meant the NESCAC didn’t have a team hosting a regional this year. Once I found out that Hamilton and Williams were hosting, I was truly shocked. Hamilton had a great year I understand having them host a regional, but how did Williams get to host over Amherst? The Mammoths won the conference championship and are currently ranked 7th in the nation going into the tournament. I personally think that the NESCAC champion should automatically host a regional, but this case seems overwhelming. They say that sometimes more things are taken into account such as region, but Amherst and Williams are only about 90 minutes apart so I don’t see how that could be enough of a factor. In the end none of this really matters that much because each team has to win the same number of games, but I do think it was a very strange move by the committee.

Note: Had I done a pretty basic amount of research before writing this, I would have found that because the Amherst women’s basketball team is hosting a regional, the men cannot also host. In odd numbered years the women have priority for the first rounds, but the Amherst men’s team is in line to host the following two rounds this year should they get there.

POY clarity

Bobby Casey looks to become the second straight Eph to win the award

Now that the NESCAC season has come to a close the league will hand out awards to the top performers during the season. As of right now it seems that picking a Player of the Year is going to be a very difficult job for the committee because there are seemingly three guys that are all equally as deserving. I have laid out the stat lines (only for conference play) for each player to prove just how tight the race is between the top three contenders:

Kena Gilmour – 19.8PPG, 5.6REB/G, 2.7AST/G, 48% FG, 39% 3PT, 91% FT)

Bobby Casey – 19.6PPG, 5.4REB/G, 4.6AST/G, 45% FG, 36% 3PT, 80% FT)

Grant Robinson – 17.8PPG, 5.5REB/G, 3.5AST/G, 51.3% FG, 41.4% 3PT, 87% FT)

There are a few different ways the committee can go to pick a winner. Last year by picking James Heskett over Jack Daly they showed that they valued winning the conference championship over (slightly) better overall statistics. This would lead me to believe that Robinson would take home the hardware, but I also don’t necessarily believe that will be the case. It’ll be interesting to see what the league puts an emphasis on this year through who they give the award to.

Stock Report: Championship Weekend

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Can Gilmour bring it home on his own court for the Conts this weekend?

Hamilton’s Chances at a Title

Last week the Continentals were able to take care of business on their home court against the 7-seeded Colby Mules. While this may not seem that surprising, as the Continentals were heavy favorites, it was only a few weeks ago when the Mules stormed into Hamilton territory and stole a game right out from under their noses. The Mules were able to keep it close, but lightning did not strike twice for them. Hamilton played a clean, team game in which all 5 starters were able to amass double digit scoring. Kena Gilmour lead the way for the Continentals, putting up 19 points which includes a perfect 5/5 from downtown. Overall this team played as a cohesive unit, which should allow them to make an even bigger playoff push. Another advantage that Hamilton now possesses is that they now have home court advantage for the remainder of the playoffs. While other teams have to take the long ride to upstate New York, Hamilton can sit back and relax and wait for the competition to come to them.

Everybody loves an upset.

UMBC… I mean Tufts

After sneaking their way into the playoffs over Bowdoin, the Tufts Jumbos are here to stay. Obviously the story of the weekend was #1 Midd going down on their homecourt to a team they had no business losing to. The Panthers did not look like their usual selves all game, but this section isn’t about bashing Midd, it is about celebrating the underdog. Everyone loves an underdog, and Tufts usually doesn’t get to feel that love. See the reason is that Tufts is never the underdog is because they have more than twice as many students as the rest of the NESCACs. When you have that many enrollment spots, it can be much easier to compete. This year though, their basketball program is flipping that narrative on its head. It’s underdog Tufts taking on all the big bad schools like Hamilton, Amherst and Williams. With the #1 seed out of the way who says they can’t make a run?

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The State of Connecticut

After Wesleyan and Trinity exit the tourney in the first round with losses to Amherst and Williams, respectively, all 3 of the Connecticut NESCACs have been eliminated. The first Connecticut elimination was the earliest in all the NESCAC when Conn finished their season still searching for a conference win. It was a tough season all year long for the Camels but they have another year of rebuilding to look forwards to next year. Trinity proved themselves to be a playoff-quality team as the season progresses but they were still not able to finish the job against a very well organized Williams team. Joe Bell had a great performance for the Bantams off the bench, leading Trinity with 17 points, but the skill gap between the two teams was still too much to overcome. Connecticut’s best chance had to be Wesleyan. They had been ranked at multiple points throughout the season and really looked as if they could bang with the big dogs when push comes to shove. They dropped down to the 6-seed entering postseason play and were not able to top 3-seed Amherst. It was a disappointing year overall for the Connecticut NESCACs but now they can sit back, relax and join their buddies up in Maine as they watch Massachusetts and New York bang it out for a championship.

CACs in the NCAAs

The chances for five NCAA berths are gone, but will the NESCAC get four?

At one point or another this season it seemed as if it were possible to have up to 5 NESCACs make the tournament. As the playoff picture winds down, that number is getting smaller and smaller. First with the givens: from day 1 of the season it was pretty clear that Hamilton and Williams will be in the tournament no matter what. They were slated very high in the top-25 to start the season and while they are not as highly ranked as they have been at the moment, even without a championship I would be in disbelief if these two are not at-large selections. Amherst lies just behind Williams and Hamilton in stature. They were first able to break the top-25 mark in just week 2 of the season. Since that they have bounced in and out of the top-25 but find themselves all the way up at #11, right behind Hamilton, in the latest poll. It wasn’t as obvious throughout the season that this squad would be able to hang with the the Continentals and Ephs but they have more than proven themselves at this point as a lock for NCAAs. Next we come to Midd who is very much “on the bubble” of making the tournament. They had everything going for them. They jumped into the top-25 right at the end of the season after taking the CAC by storm, earning them a 1-seed in the NESCAC tourney. If Midd had made it even to the semis and lost to a ranked team, I believe that they would’ve had great chances to crack into the NCAA tourney. Unfortunately this is not what happened. Midd blew it to the 8-seed on their home court for what must have been quite the embarrassing upset. I do, however, still believe that the odds favor the Panthers to sneak in to the tournament as the twitter account “D3bubble,” researching D3 bracketology, named the Panthers as a “definite lock” entering the NESCAC tournament.

Confusion at the Top: Final Regular Season Stock Report

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Amherst Bus Trips

Fru Che and the Mammoths are making moves.

It was quite the weekend for the Mammoths as they knocked off two of the top NESCAC teams, both victories on the road (84-79 W @ Williams; 97-93 W @ Midd). Despite uncertainty regarding their depth entering the season, they have proved to be the most consistent team in the conference in 2019 and control their own destiny to lock up the #1 seed in the NESCAC tournament. Grant Robinson and Fru Che combined for 68 points over their last two games and are constantly on the floor, playing nearly every minute, never giving their opponents a break from their attack. If they beat Hamilton this weekend, again on the road, they will be the favorites entering the postseason and will be a top national seed in the NCAA tournament. Their drive back to campus after their win at Midd must’ve been a fun one. 

Middlebury Guards

Despite a key loss to Amherst last Saturday that could’ve locked up the #1 seed for the Panthers, they still had a solid weekend with their last minute comeback win against Hamilton. This young Midd team knocked off the experienced and deep Continental team (with a pretty weak home crowd) much to my surprise. Jack Farrell and Max Bosco, both starting as sophomores, are legit DIII players and will give any team in the country a run for their money. Max Bosco made a deep, contested three in the final seconds of the game to give Midd the lead and had an impressive, quick release on the shot. Jack Farrell out dribbles opponents and is too quick to defend and is starting to find his shooting groove. They also have fellow sophomore Griffin Kornaker as the sixth man coming off of the bench to give them a hand. This stock up is about the guards, but they aren’t even the best players on the floor for the Panthers. Watch out for this team in the tournament.

Max Bosco made a good move by choosing a college in the North Pole because he has ice in his veins.

Stock Down

Eph Dominance

The reign of terror of Williams is over. I don’t even care if they win the NESCAC and NCAA tournament, an 0-2 weekend for a team with this talent is inexcusable. They really struggled against Hamilton without James Heskett who was out due to an ankle sprain but even lost two in a row to Bowdoin and Amherst with him on the floor. Williams’ losing streak is now at three games and this cold streak couldn’t be coming at a worse time. Bobby Casey is just 13-52 from deep in his last five games, good for just 25% of his massive amount of shots. The Ephs went with an unusual and big starting lineup against Hamilton on senior day, with Marcos Soto, Jake Porath, and Michael Kempton all on the floor to begin the game. It definitely hurt them to not have Henry Feinberg and Matt Karpowicz on the floor for more minutes and Kyle Scadlock was basically a non-factor in the offense. It will be fascinating to see how these preseason favorites fare in the NESCAC tournament as they might have an early exit if they play like they have the last two weeks.

Kyle Scadlock is a hugely underutilized weapon in the Ephs’ offense.

Cardinal Depth

Wesleyan is now tied for the best team in Connecticut with Trinity as both are now a surprising 6-4 in NESCAC play. Trinity has been playing much better than expected and better than they were at the beginning of the season, while Wesleyan has struggled, especially last weekend against Colby. This upset win for the Mules revealed a weakness in depth off the bench as just six players managed to score points in the contest. While Austin Hutcherson and Antone Walker had monster games, combining for 47 points, the bench shot just 4-9 as a group. They simply didn’t put up enough shots to give themselves a chance to win against a deep-ball shooting Mule team. The Mules put up 15 more threes than Wesleyan and had a 27 point advantage on such shots. Colby is likely the only team to gain such an advantage on perimeter shooting, but if Williams’ Bobby Casey gets hot, the Ephs could also take over a game in a similar way. For the Cardinals to beat a team like Colby on a hot shooting night, they will need to better distribute their scoring. 

Bowdoin/Conn/Bates

The bottom three are set for the 2019 season. It’s too bad that Bowdoin finds themselves on the outside looking in as they really could’ve given teams a challenge in the playoffs, but a crucial loss to Tufts doomed them despite a win over Williams. We will see these teams again in 2020…

Pigs Are Flying: Stock Report 2/6

Stock Report 2/6

Now it’s getting really good. This is the time of year everyone looks forward to from day one of practice. We’ve got just one weekend left of conference basketball (and a makeup game between Amherst and Hamilton on Tuesday) to sort out the final standings. As you could probably guess, it’s absolute madness right now. Everything you thought you knew seems to change on a weekly basis, and now we’re at the part of the season when everything is magnified. It would be nice if we could start projecting conference tournament matchups, but I guess the players got together and decided they’d rather watch the world burn. Chaos sure is fun, so find out how the league is looking as we head into the final weekend:  

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Chance for a crazier ending than last year

In the 2017-2018 season we saw one of the wildest endings to a season that we possibly could. Five teams finished tied atop the standings at 7-3, Tufts finished 6-4, and then teams 7-9 all finished 4-6. As you can imagine this led to the use of a number of tiebreakers to sort out playoff seeding, and the fact that teams 1 and 9 were separated by just 3 games is a real testament to how well balanced this league really is. Somehow this season it’s looking like we could be in for an even more exciting finish than last year. Right now there are four teams at the top with just two losses (although Williams and Middlebury have six wins while Amherst and Hamilton have just five), one team has three losses, one has four, three have five, and one has six. It is conceivable that by the end of the season there could be ties at any of the top 10 spots in the league. It is also conceivable that there are two different four-way ties, which would be absolutely absurd. This is what makes NESCAC basketball so much fun and we can certainly bank on even more insanity this weekend as conference play comes to a close.

Hamilton big 3

Michael Grassey and his terrific class of seniors have one last shot to take home some hardware

The Continentals have had a terrific year and much of that has been a result of the production they’re getting from their top 3 guys – Kena Gilmour, Peter Hoffmann, and Michael Grassey. These guys have led the way all year long, and they had a big weekend. In their game on Friday at Bates each of these three posted a double double, while also adding 3 or more assists. They were a bit quieter on Saturday when Gilmour actually had his worst game of the season with just 4 points and 6 assists, although Grassey and Hoffmann still found their way into double figures in scoring while grabbing at least 5 rebounds each. They’re all averaging at least 12 points and 4 rebounds a game, but even among these 3 guys, Kena Gilmour stands out. The top NESCAC POY candidate is putting up a league-best 19.4 points, grabbing 5.8 rebounds, and dishing out 3 assists per game to set the pace for Hamilton. This team is poised to make a run deep into the postseason, and it that won’t be possible without their big 3 taking the reigns.

Stock down

Week-to-week consistency

If there’s one thing I know for sure it’s that writing the weekend preview for NESCAC basketball on a weekly basis is nearly impossible. Right when you think you know how each team stacks up compared to each other, something totally crazy happens. Two weekends ago Trinity was absolutely annihilated twice, losing by 35+ points both games. This past weekend they came back and looked excellent, defeating both Wesleyan and Conn College en route to getting back into the playoff picture. Bowdoin hadn’t been playing well and was also coming off of two brutal losses, and they knocked off Williams in overtime. Tufts took down Wesleyan and Conn two weeks ago, and then followed that with a rough weekend against the likes of Amherst and Hamilton. Colby was riding high after winning road games against both Amherst and Hamilton, and then were handled by Middlebury and Williams the following week. It is so difficult to predict these games because there is so much talent across the conference. Anyone really can beat anyone on a given night and as a writer it drives me insane but as a fan it brings me about as much excitement as possible.

NESCAC East

I know, I know – the NESCAC isn’t split into two divisions in basketball. That said, I’m a baseball player so that’s the lens that I have on when looking at the conference. With this in mind, it’s very disappointing to see the five teams in the NESCAC West at the top of the standings in basketball while the five teams in the NESCAC East battle it out at the bottom. It seems fitting that Conn College sits at the bottom because at times it doesn’t even feel like they should be there at all. It is true that many of the perennial NESCAC powers are found in the west (i.e. Amherst, Williams, Middlebury) so that’s obviously something to think about, but come on. I go to Bates so of course I’d like to see my Bobcats higher up in the standings, but Trinity, Tufts, Bowdoin, and Colby aren’t helping us out very much here. We know that these teams are capable of beating the best, so maybe they’re just trying to make things interesting with a few first round upsets. Looks like we might just have to wait until baseball season to reverse the roles a little bit…

Chances of getting 5 teams in the NCAA Tournament

Kyle Scadlock and the Ephs have their sights set a bit beyond the NESCAC Tournament

By almost all measures the NESCAC is the best conference in Division III basketball. It has the deepest pool of teams and a ton of historical success in the NCAA Tournament. Because of how talented the conference is we like to pride ourselves on getting as many as 5 berths into the NCAA Tournament – 4 at-large and 1 conference champion. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like this will be such a year, as Wesleyan just lost their 7th game of the year to Amherst last night. At this point it appears that Williams, Amherst, Hamilton, and Middlebury are locks to get into the tournament, but Wesleyan is just on the outside. The Cardinals very well have a chance to win the conference tournament to get a berth, but picking up an 8th loss in the conference tournament would all but end their chances of making it. Getting four teams into the NCAAs is definitely something to be proud of, but it would be pretty cool to see someone besides one of the top four win the conference tournament to steal a bid.