Playoffs – Page 3 – Nothing But NESCAC

Let’s Get Ready to Rumble: NESCAC Championship Final Preview

For Amherst and Hamilton, their basketball season is hardly over as the two teams will most certainly earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Before they take a stab at the Big Dance, however, the Mammoths and the Continentals will duke it out for the right to cement their status as NESCAC champions. The two teams played an exhilarating game earlier this month, with Hamilton narrowly escaping with a win on their home court. The Continentals have the home court advantage given the fact that they are the highest remaining seed, but the Mammoths have revenge on their minds and will come in confident they can leave New York with a win after taking down Wesleyan and Williams.

Overview

While there is no such thing as an easy game in the NESCAC, the Continentals have undoubtedly faced weaker opponents in the tournament than the Mammoths. In their semifinal victory over Tufts, Hamilton trailed at halftime but quickly erased the deficit and did not look back. Star player Kena Gilmour ‘20 struggled mightily (9 points, 2-9 from the field), but seniors Tim Doyle ’19 (18 points) and Andrew Groll ’19 (16 points) picked up the slack. Hamilton also received a substantial contribution from their bench players, tallying 29 points. The Continentals shot well from the field (51.7%) and repeatedly attacked the rim, registering an impressive 35 free throw attempts; however, they converted only 20 of those attempts (57.1%). Defensively, the Continentals limited the Jumbos to just 43.1% shooting, but they did allow them to bomb away from three and connect on 14 of their 28 attempts from beyond the arc. It seems as if the Continentals can’t get the entire squad to fire on all cylinders at the precise moment, yet fantastic individual performances by a couple of players per game is enough to keep adding to the win column. Individual performances will not be enough to knock off the stingiest defense in the ‘CAC, and Hamilton will need a more well-rounded performance if they want to secure their first ever NESCAC Championship.

Much like their football team, the Mammoths have a simple recipe for success: defense wins championships. This mantra was put on display against Williams, as Amherst secured their third win of the season against their archrival by limiting the Ephs to just 38.7% shooting and including 26.3% from downtown. The terrific trio of Bobby Casey ‘19, James Heskett ’19 and Kyle Scadlock ‘19 were stifled by the suffocating Mammoth defense, clanking shot after shot en route to a combined 14 for 42 shooting performance. Amherst didn’t have a fantastic offensive performance as a team on Saturday, but Grant Robinson ’21 single handedly willed his squad with a season-defining 32 points. The Mammoths did cash in at the free throw line, shooting 22-23 from the charity stripe. Fru Che had a quiet performance by his standards with just 10 points, but the sophomore has stepped up in big moments before and will look to help Amherst win their first NESCAC Championship since the 2014 season.

Hamilton X-Factor

Kena Gilmour ‘20

Who else can it possibly be in a moment like this? When he’s on, Gilmour is one of the most dynamic players in all of America; however, the probable NESCAC POY has struggled in the tournament thus far, shooting a paltry 32.1%. The Continentals cannot afford to have him struggle in their biggest game of the season to date, and Amherst’s relentless defensive pressure is not the most ideal matchup for Gilmour to bust out of his shooting woes (although he did tally 23 points in their regular season matchup). Hamilton must find ways to get their best player some easy buckets in order for him to get into the flow of the game and regain his confidence. They survived against Colby and Tufts, but if Gilmour fails to ignite the offense once again, Hamilton will very likely lose this contest.

Amherst X-Factor

Fru Che ‘21

I mentioned Che had a quiet performance against Williams, but in Amherst’s previous game against Wesleyan, the sophomore dropped a career-high 30 points. It was Robinson’s turn to carry the offense against the Ephs, but this game is critical for Che to get back on track. In their previous matchup with Hamilton, Che led the Mammoths with 18 points and knocked down four shots from three. Given Hamilton’s woes guarding the perimeter, Che should have plenty of looks to knock down some deep balls. Colby and Tufts had absolutely no problem tearing apart the Hamilton defense, so it’s critical that Che puts up some solid shooting numbers in order for the Mammoths to take home the championship.

Final Thoughts

These two teams are the exact opposite from one another, as Amherst likes to grind down its opponents with defense, while Hamilton seems perfectly content with its run-and-gun style of trying to outscore its opponents. In their regular season matchup, Hamilton won the pace-of-play battle and was able to put up 81 points on the highly touted Mammoth defense. They didn’t shoot particularly well at 42.4%, but they shot 21 free throws and converted 81% of those attempts, a bit of an anomaly for the Continentals. In contrast, Amherst only attempted eight free throws, and despite shooting at a higher field goal percentage than Hamilton, the Mammoths averaged a pedestrian 31.8% from beyond the arc against a team that has not guarded the deep ball well in recent games. This time around, I think Amherst is the better prepared team. They know they have to control the pace of the game, and have shut down two very good offensive opponents in Wesleyan and Williams on their way to this rematch. I do believe Gilmour will bust out of his mini slump and score north of 20 points, but Amherst will connect on more threes than they did in their last outing, and the defense will come up with some big stops late. The Continentals will have to wait another year to see if they can snag that first ever NESCAC Championship.

Final Score: Amherst 77 – Hamilton 73

Purple Rain: Amherst v. Williams Semifinal Preview

Overview

Amherst clearly has the momentum coming into this game and it’s theirs to lose. While nobody expected this game to be played at Hamilton several weeks ago or after the NESCAC seeding came out, each team now has an uphill battle to claim the conference championship. Williams has looked weak of late but should be healthy after a week off, giving James Heskett enough time to recover from his ankle injury. Additionally, maybe some time off is exactly what the Ephs needed, seeing some tough shooting performances from star guard Bobby Casey. In their quarterfinal victory over Trinity, it looks as if they finally figured something out: balance. During their three game losing streak to Bowdoin, Amherst, and Hamilton, Casey went 9-31 from three-point-range, not on par with his normal standards. He took a ridiculous amount of shots while uber-athlete and maybe the Ephs best weapon, Kyle Scadlock, was underutilized offensively. However, in their 88-77 win against Trinity last weekend, all five starters scored in double-digits and Scadlock finally entered the picture as an offensive threat. He only took five shots, making all of them, but executed well at the free throw line, scoring another 10 points there. Hopefully he is a bigger part of the Ephs’ game plan this weekend like during the 2017 playoff run where he emerged as a legitimate superstar before getting hurt last season. With a big and experienced starting lineup, this Williams team has unlimited potential, but needs to play up to as they are close to seeing their destined playoff run come to an end. In fact, they can hardly view their performance against Trinity as comforting as they were handed a gift of a first round matchup given their low seed. Trinity played well at the end of the year but didn’t have the talent of a fifth seed in the NESCAC and the Ephs took advantage of it. This will be the first real test for the Ephs to see if they’ve adjusted since their skid to end the regular season.

Amherst, on the other hand, has plenty of positives to look at heading into this game: They beat Williams at the end of the regular season, they have been consistent all season, and they haven’t had any injury issues of late. They did, however, lose to Hamilton in the final game of the regular season, losing the #1 seed in the NESCAC tournament, but could have an opportunity for redemption if they beat the Ephs. The Mammoths had a much more difficult first round playoff matchup than Williams, knocking off Wesleyan 63-56, led by a career performance from Fru Che who dropped 30 points. Grant Robinson and Che provide a lethal 1-2 attach for the Mammoths. The duo averages a combined 26 PPG, 9 REB/G, and 4 A/G. Eric Sellew also throws in over eight boards and 11 points per contest too, giving the Mammoths a three-headed offensive attack. Che poses the biggest threat to Williams, however, as the shooter-happy Eph team could be equalized by Che’s 37% efficiency from deep. Amherst also boasts the league’s best defense, allowing under 64 PPG to opponents while Williams is close behind at 65.4 PPG allowed.

Amherst X-Factor

C CJ Bachmann

The senior big man averages 6.7 PPG and 4.6 REB/G but was the key to the Mammoth victory the last time these two teams played. He dropped a double-double off the bench and along with Joseph Schneider, will need to shut down the powerful Williams lineup down low. In order for the Mammoths to have a chance, they will need to hold the rebounding advantage. Williams shoots the long ball better and Bachmann’s play will help keep the ball away from Bobby Casey and into the hands of Che who is Amherst’s most potent offensive threat.

Williams X-Factor

F Kyle Scadlock

I’ve always been a big fan of Scadlock and think that his multi-faceted game is almost impossible to defend. He has touch from anywhere on the floor and is athletic enough to post up down low and compete for boards. He has a way with the playoffs, often finding an extra gear in the limelight, and I can only hope that Coach App includes him heavily in their game plan. If Casey gets cold shooting, Scadlock and Heskett are the Ephs best shot to keep pace with the Amherst offense. Also, Scadlock is a rebounding presence that needs to match up with Eric Sellew and slow him down.

Final Thoughts

The last time these two teams met, Che, Robinson, and Sellew all scored in double-digits to lead the Mammoths to victory while CJ Bachmann and Garrett Day came off the bench to add a combined 24. Because so many players in the Eph lineup have a high ceiling for points, Amherst will need to see a similar shooting efficiency around 50% to take this game. The Ephs didn’t play poorly last time these teams met either, but were painfully outrebounded 44-33 on the night. Scadlock was the only player to collect seven boards while Amherst’s Bachmann had ten off the bench. These two talented teams should duke it out in a close contest, and I don’t see Amherst having such a lopsided defensive effort like they did before. Williams will narrow the gap on shooting percentage (they shot 41% FG compared to Amherst’s 50.8% FG last time) and ride on to the finals against Hamilton.

Writer’s Pick: Williams 78 – Amherst 73

Stock Report: Championship Weekend

Stock Up:

Can Gilmour bring it home on his own court for the Conts this weekend?

Hamilton’s Chances at a Title

Last week the Continentals were able to take care of business on their home court against the 7-seeded Colby Mules. While this may not seem that surprising, as the Continentals were heavy favorites, it was only a few weeks ago when the Mules stormed into Hamilton territory and stole a game right out from under their noses. The Mules were able to keep it close, but lightning did not strike twice for them. Hamilton played a clean, team game in which all 5 starters were able to amass double digit scoring. Kena Gilmour lead the way for the Continentals, putting up 19 points which includes a perfect 5/5 from downtown. Overall this team played as a cohesive unit, which should allow them to make an even bigger playoff push. Another advantage that Hamilton now possesses is that they now have home court advantage for the remainder of the playoffs. While other teams have to take the long ride to upstate New York, Hamilton can sit back and relax and wait for the competition to come to them.

UMBC… I mean Tufts

After sneaking their way into the playoffs over Bowdoin, the Tufts Jumbos are here to stay. Obviously the story of the weekend was #1 Midd going down on their homecourt to a team they had no business losing to. The Panthers did not look like their usual selves all game, but this section isn’t about bashing Midd, it is about celebrating the underdog. Everyone loves an underdog, and Tufts usually doesn’t get to feel that love. See the reason is that Tufts is never the underdog is because they have more than twice as many students as the rest of the NESCACs. When you have that many enrollment spots, it can be much easier to compete. This year though, their basketball program is flipping that narrative on its head. It’s underdog Tufts taking on all the big bad schools like Hamilton, Amherst and Williams. With the #1 seed out of the way who says they can’t make a run?

Stock Down:

The State of Connecticut

After Wesleyan and Trinity exit the tourney in the first round with losses to Amherst and Williams, respectively, all 3 of the Connecticut NESCACs have been eliminated. The first Connecticut elimination was the earliest in all the NESCAC when Conn finished their season still searching for a conference win. It was a tough season all year long for the Camels but they have another year of rebuilding to look forwards to next year. Trinity proved themselves to be a playoff-quality team as the season progresses but they were still not able to finish the job against a very well organized Williams team. Joe Bell had a great performance for the Bantams off the bench, leading Trinity with 17 points, but the skill gap between the two teams was still too much to overcome. Connecticut’s best chance had to be Wesleyan. They had been ranked at multiple points throughout the season and really looked as if they could bang with the big dogs when push comes to shove. They dropped down to the 6-seed entering postseason play and were not able to top 3-seed Amherst. It was a disappointing year overall for the Connecticut NESCACs but now they can sit back, relax and join their buddies up in Maine as they watch Massachusetts and New York bang it out for a championship.

CACs in the NCAAs

The chances for five NCAA berths are gone, but will the NESCAC get four?

At one point or another this season it seemed as if it were possible to have up to 5 NESCACs make the tournament. As the playoff picture winds down, that number is getting smaller and smaller. First with the givens: from day 1 of the season it was pretty clear that Hamilton and Williams will be in the tournament no matter what. They were slated very high in the top-25 to start the season and while they are not as highly ranked as they have been at the moment, even without a championship I would be in disbelief if these two are not at-large selections. Amherst lies just behind Williams and Hamilton in stature. They were first able to break the top-25 mark in just week 2 of the season. Since that they have bounced in and out of the top-25 but find themselves all the way up at #11, right behind Hamilton, in the latest poll. It wasn’t as obvious throughout the season that this squad would be able to hang with the the Continentals and Ephs but they have more than proven themselves at this point as a lock for NCAAs. Next we come to Midd who is very much “on the bubble” of making the tournament. They had everything going for them. They jumped into the top-25 right at the end of the season after taking the CAC by storm, earning them a 1-seed in the NESCAC tourney. If Midd had made it even to the semis and lost to a ranked team, I believe that they would’ve had great chances to crack into the NCAA tourney. Unfortunately this is not what happened. Midd blew it to the 8-seed on their home court for what must have been quite the embarrassing upset. I do, however, still believe that the odds favor the Panthers to sneak in to the tournament as the twitter account “D3bubble,” researching D3 bracketology, named the Panthers as a “definite lock” entering the NESCAC tournament.

Can the Underdog pull it off? Tufts @ Hamilton Semifinal Preview

Tufts pulled off what some consider the impossible last weekend. The Jumbos made the tumultuous trek up to Vermont and defeated top seeded Middlebury. The Jumbos were led by freshman guard, who went to my high school, Tyler Aronson. Aronson played an all around complete game, proving to the conference why he will be an elite player for years to come. Similar to what happened to UVA last year during March Madness, Tufts was not intimidated by playing the top seed. The Jumbos looked poised and cruised to a nine point victory. Tufts’ opponent this weekend, Hamilton, should be weary about playing Tufts. It was about three weeks ago when Hamilton squeaked out a four point win against the Jumbos. I consider three weeks an eternity ago. Like Jim Mora famously muttered, “Playoffs?!” the playoffs in any sport have proved to be a different beast. Considering how competitive the league is, which Tufts displayed this past weekend, Hamilton needs to come out of the gates hot. The Continentals need to prove why they’re hosting the game— boasting an earned cockiness and swagger. Hamilton beat Williams and lost by a point to Midd this month. Kena Gilmour continues to dominate the scoring sheet. Gilmour has proven to be the league’s elite scorer this year. Even though basketball is a team game, I am excited to see the individual match up of Aronson versus Gilmour this weekend. Let’s take an in depth preview of the game.

Eric Savage needs to move a mountain to bring the Jumbos some rings.

Overview

Tufts is one of those teams no one wants to play in the playoffs. They’re simply a team with momentum. You know those teams. The ‘07 Giants, who barely earned a wildcard, went on to defeat the 18-0 Patriots. The Blackhawks when Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews were in their primes. And most famously, the 1980 Men’s Olympic hockey team. Their run was quite a ‘miracle.’ Tufts, based on their regular season performance, doesn’t deserve to be in this spot. Their 4-6 conference record barely squeaked them into the playoffs. Then they go and beat a one seed. That’s sports. Every game starts 0-0. Previous games don’t matter; it’s what about what you give today. Although at first glance it’s a shock for Tufts to have defeated Midd, it’s terribly surprising. Tufts has a young squad led by veteran coach Bob Sheldon. Coach Sheldon has been around the block a few times. He has experience in big games and knows how to create a game plan that once featured big man Tom Palleschi and now is centered around guard Tyler Aronson. I will get to Aronson in the next section, but now I want to focus on Tufts as a team. Their general statistics don’t jump out at me. They shoot 43% from the field and around 32% from deep. What is particularly striking is that they have a 66% free throw percentage. I don’t want to jinx anything, but having a number like that may come back to bite them in a big game. The Jumbos on average get outrebounded per game as well. Was their victory against Midd an anomaly? Maybe. I don’t want to say anything further, however, since playoffs are so much about momentum. Frankly, numbers get thrown out the window at this point.

Hamilton has five legitimate weapons in their starting lineup.

Hamilton has been a powerhouse all year long. They’re that team who you know is very good, but for some reason, they don’t garner the same respect as a Williams or Midd. One reason is that Hamilton is so far away. In the NEW ENGLAND Small College Athletic Conference, an upstate New York school outside of Utica is out of the picture. The Continentals have proven year in and year that they’re a very good basketball team. This year is no different. Hamilton posted a solid 7-3 conference record—finishing nearly undefeated at home (11-1). I am going to take one more shot at upstate New York here. Tufts playing Hamilton is like the Florida Gators traveling to play the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. That ride is far even if you’re not playing the day of travel. Regardless of home court advantage, Hamilton has proven that defense wins games. They allow on average 70 points per game, one of the best in the league. They’re tough inside too with a six rebound advantage per game. Hamilton plays a tough brand of basketball with a potent inside force and strong scoring led by Kena Gilmour.

Tufts X-Factor

G Tyler Aronson

Aronson, a Holliston, Mass, native and my former classmate at Rivers, has been the guy for Tufts all season. He has averaged 9.4 points this season and posted solid assists and turnover numbers. I do not think Aronson’s stats jump off the page. He is not the guy that will get you twenty-five, ten, and five on a daily basis. He is, however, one of the smartest basketball players I have seen. I want the ball in his hand with the game on the line. His handle is one of the best in the league and is a smart player. He will not throw away the game with a stupid turnover. I am excited to watch him develop into one of the league’s best these next few years. He is not huge like Wesleyan’s Austin Hutcherson, but he’s quick and bouncy. He can seriously fly. If Tufts wins the game, I guarantee Aronson will have a breakout game.

Hamilton X-Factor

G Kena Gilmour

In life people overcomplicate things. They think in order to sound smart they have to sometimes evade a logical answers. Think back to all those multiple choice exams. What if instead you picked the answer that was a bit more wordy and complex, you picked the one that simply answered the question in a well-constructed sentence? Makes you wonder. Kena Gilmour is the obvious choice for Hamilton’s x-factor. Sure he has great teammates, but he has proven that he is one of the best in the league scoring wise. Aronson can use Gilmour as a model for his own progression. Gilmour needs to start off hot to show that he is the alpha right now in the league. He needs to assert himself right away. He and Hamilton can’t let Tufts have a glimmer of hope. He needs to crush any hopes of a Tufts’ miracle from the jump.

Final thoughts

Aronson has come out of nowhere to put Tufts in the Semis.

This game is definitely an interesting matchup. Every single statistic I look at points in Hamilton’s favor. The Continentals have a better offense, defense, home court advantage, etc. You get the general picture. Something doesn’t sit right by writing Tufts off immediately. Aronson is a young, confident player. He has young guys around him looking to make a difference. There’s no reason to pick Tufts except for the fact that they’re coming off a huge win at Midd. It’s like I am sitting in that multiple choice exam where the right answer is in front of me, but there is another option that mentions something from a textbook reading from the first week of the semester. I am split; however, I cannot go against the simple answer. Hamilton will win this game.

Hamilton 87 Tufts 79

One and Done?: NESCAC Championship Quarterfinal Previews

NESCAC Championship Quarterfinal Previews

The best time of the year is here – playoff season, baby. Saturday is going to be an awesome day filled with awesome games that should be as exciting as ever. In fact, the lower seed beat the higher seed when the teams met in the regular season in three of the four first round matchups (with Williams vs. Trinity being the exception). Each of these teams will battle for the coveted automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament that is awarded to the winner of the NESCAC Championship, and it’s shaping up to be a very exciting tournament as always. The results of this tournament will have an impact on the NCAA Tournament field because the NESCAC could have anywhere from four to six teams in this year’s NCAA’s. If Colby and Wesleyan are able to steal a win or two (or even win the whole thing) then we could see some extra teams sneaking in. There’s still a lot left to play, so check out our previews for each of the quarterfinal matchups:

1. #25 Middlebury vs. 8. Tufts

*Tyler Aronson and the Jumbos will have to make a little tournament magic happen if they want to pull off the upset*

We start off with a very interesting matchup between Tufts and Middlebury. In their regular season matchup the Panthers traveled to Medford and were dropped on a game winning shot by Brennan Morris ’21, keeping the Jumbos in the playoff race. That game also took place a very long time ago – over a month, in fact. Middlebury is a very different team now than they were then, and the Jumbos are very, very young. The trio of Matt Folger ’20, Jack Farrell ’21, and Max Bosco ’21 are averaging a combined 46 points per game and they have been absolutely on fire for the Panthers when they’ve needed it. The Jumbos are very guard-heavy and have proved that they’re capable of getting hot, so this could be an intriguing matchup between two particularly young backcourts. It’ll also be very interesting to see what we get out of the battle down low because each of these teams boast outstanding big men. Tufts features a 6’8”, 230lb giant in Luke Rogers ’21 who hauls in rebounds at a high rate and scores better than just about any other big in the league. On the other side, Eric McCord ’19 isn’t a huge contributor scoring-wise, but he averages a league-best 9.9 rebounds per game and does an excellent job locking down opposing centers. Both of these guys had big games in their first meeting, so if one if them can do a better job defending the other this time around then their team will have a huge advantage. Middlebury has (a little) more experience and I truly do think they’re the better team in this one, so I’m going with them to move on to the semifinals next weekend.

Prediction: Middlebury 86, Tufts 77

2. #10 Hamilton vs. 7. Colby

I feel like I find myself saying this a lot but I think this could be the year for Hamilton. They’ve had an outstanding season and have looking simply dominant much of the way. Their success has earned them a home game in the first round and a rematch with one of the only three teams that beat them this season. When they met in late January the Mules were able to travel to New York and take down the Continentals on the back of Sam Jefferson ’20 who scored 29 points on 9-14 shooting including 6-10 from three-point range. Colby is a team who, similar to Tufts, is very young and has a very promising future ahead of them. The problem is that I’m not sure if they’re quite ready to compete with the experience that a team like Hamilton brings to the table. Hamilton’s top six leaders in minutes played this season are all juniors and seniors, and they’ve been terrific. Led by NESCAC Player of the Year favorite Kena Gilmour ’20, the Continentals have shot their way to first in the league in points per game second in field goal percentage during their outstanding 2018-2019 season. The Mules aren’t far behind (3^rd in PPG, 5^th in FG%), and they’ve had some of the hottest shooting streaks we’ve seen in the NESCAC this year. I like that Colby is young and they play like they have nothing to lose because they don’t and I think they’re going to be great in the near future. This is going to be a close game, but I think that Hamilton’s depth and experience will end up being too much for the youthful Mules.

Prediction: Hamilton 90, Colby 87

3. #11 Amherst vs. 6. Wesleyan

*Austin Hutcherson hopes to lead a tournament run in just his second season*

I think that out of all the first round matchups, this is my favorite. The Little Three rivals split their regular season meetings, but the Cardinals won the official conference meeting. Wesleyan is not a particularly deep team but they’ve got a few stars that have taken them a very long way. I’d honestly be shocked if Austin Hutcherson ’21 didn’t take home a Player of the Year trophy in one of the next two years, because he has been absolutely outstanding. The league leader in points per game (20.4) has had some incredible performances this season, most recently coming in the form of a season-high 37 points on 81.3% shooting while adding 9 rebounds as well. This guy is a total stud who can light anyone up on any given night, but in the first two meetings between these two teams Hutcherson hasn’t looked quite as impressive. He totaled 25 points and 7 rebounds in those two games combined, well under his regular numbers. He’s going to play the biggest role on the Wesleyan side because if he comes to play then they’ll be very hard to stop. Amherst on the other hand plays a deeper rotation of guys and they share the scoring a bit more evenly. There’s no doubt that Grant Robinson ’21 is their go-to guy, but they have a number of players that can step up when they need to. They’re no. 11 in the country for a reason and there’s never a year when they should be taken lightly. However, star power goes a very long way in this league and Wesleyan wins the battle there. I’m going with the upset in this one.

Prediction: Wesleyan 66, Amherst 62

4. #18 Williams vs. 5. Trinity

It doesn’t bring me any joy to say this, but I’m not very excited for this one. Williams dominated Trinity in their regular season meeting and I don’t see this one being any different. The Ephs boast three of the most prolific scorers in the league in James Heskett ’19, Bobby Casey ’19, and Kyle Scadlock ’19, and these guys have now had so much experience playing in the NESCAC and NCAA Tournament over the past three seasons. The fact that Williams ended up the number four spot is very sneaky, because I still think they might be the favorites to win the whole thing. Bobby Casey ’19 is very much a candidate to win Player of the Year with his 18.5PPG (3^rd in the NESCAC), 4.6AST/G (1^stin the NESCAC), and 5.3REB/G. We’ve said it time and time again, but this team has a lethal combination of size and shooting ability that is nearly impossible to stop. I’m a bit surprised that Trinity ended up at 6-4 and in the fifth spot, but I certainly owe them one. They had a much better season than I predicted and Donald Jorden, Jr. ’21 has emerged as one of the top forwards in the league. Jorden is actually 4^th in the league in offensive rebounds per game, so the Ephs will have to be careful not to get lazy on the defensive glass. The Bantams have had an unpredictable season so there’s no question that they could come out and prove me wrong, but I just think that Williams is too good to lose this early. Their talent and experience is really unmatched and I see them making a very deep run. Somehow I think the 4-5 matchup is the worst out of all the first round games – I don’t think this game will be very close.

Prediction: Williams 83, Trinity 61

Confusion at the Top: Final Regular Season Stock Report

Stock Up

Amherst Bus Trips

Fru Che and the Mammoths are making moves.

It was quite the weekend for the Mammoths as they knocked off two of the top NESCAC teams, both victories on the road (84-79 W @ Williams; 97-93 W @ Midd). Despite uncertainty regarding their depth entering the season, they have proved to be the most consistent team in the conference in 2019 and control their own destiny to lock up the #1 seed in the NESCAC tournament. Grant Robinson and Fru Che combined for 68 points over their last two games and are constantly on the floor, playing nearly every minute, never giving their opponents a break from their attack. If they beat Hamilton this weekend, again on the road, they will be the favorites entering the postseason and will be a top national seed in the NCAA tournament. Their drive back to campus after their win at Midd must’ve been a fun one.

Middlebury Guards

Despite a key loss to Amherst last Saturday that could’ve locked up the #1 seed for the Panthers, they still had a solid weekend with their last minute comeback win against Hamilton. This young Midd team knocked off the experienced and deep Continental team (with a pretty weak home crowd) much to my surprise. Jack Farrell and Max Bosco, both starting as sophomores, are legit DIII players and will give any team in the country a run for their money. Max Bosco made a deep, contested three in the final seconds of the game to give Midd the lead and had an impressive, quick release on the shot. Jack Farrell out dribbles opponents and is too quick to defend and is starting to find his shooting groove. They also have fellow sophomore Griffin Kornaker as the sixth man coming off of the bench to give them a hand. This stock up is about the guards, but they aren’t even the best players on the floor for the Panthers. Watch out for this team in the tournament.

Max Bosco made a good move by choosing a college in the North Pole because he has ice in his veins.

Stock Down

Eph Dominance

The reign of terror of Williams is over. I don’t even care if they win the NESCAC and NCAA tournament, an 0-2 weekend for a team with this talent is inexcusable. They really struggled against Hamilton without James Heskett who was out due to an ankle sprain but even lost two in a row to Bowdoin and Amherst with him on the floor. Williams’ losing streak is now at three games and this cold streak couldn’t be coming at a worse time. Bobby Casey is just 13-52 from deep in his last five games, good for just 25% of his massive amount of shots. The Ephs went with an unusual and big starting lineup against Hamilton on senior day, with Marcos Soto, Jake Porath, and Michael Kempton all on the floor to begin the game. It definitely hurt them to not have Henry Feinberg and Matt Karpowicz on the floor for more minutes and Kyle Scadlock was basically a non-factor in the offense. It will be fascinating to see how these preseason favorites fare in the NESCAC tournament as they might have an early exit if they play like they have the last two weeks.

Kyle Scadlock is a hugely underutilized weapon in the Ephs’ offense.

Cardinal Depth

Wesleyan is now tied for the best team in Connecticut with Trinity as both are now a surprising 6-4 in NESCAC play. Trinity has been playing much better than expected and better than they were at the beginning of the season, while Wesleyan has struggled, especially last weekend against Colby. This upset win for the Mules revealed a weakness in depth off the bench as just six players managed to score points in the contest. While Austin Hutcherson and Antone Walker had monster games, combining for 47 points, the bench shot just 4-9 as a group. They simply didn’t put up enough shots to give themselves a chance to win against a deep-ball shooting Mule team. The Mules put up 15 more threes than Wesleyan and had a 27 point advantage on such shots. Colby is likely the only team to gain such an advantage on perimeter shooting, but if Williams’ Bobby Casey gets hot, the Ephs could also take over a game in a similar way. For the Cardinals to beat a team like Colby on a hot shooting night, they will need to better distribute their scoring.

Bowdoin/Conn/Bates

The bottom three are set for the 2019 season. It’s too bad that Bowdoin finds themselves on the outside looking in as they really could’ve given teams a challenge in the playoffs, but a crucial loss to Tufts doomed them despite a win over Williams. We will see these teams again in 2020…

All Chalk? Women’s Soccer Semifinal/Final Preview

All Chalk? Women’s Soccer Semifinal/Final Preview

Last weekend’s quarterfinal matchups saw each of the top four seeds secure berths to the next round, setting up what should be yet another entertaining weekend of postseason fútbol. I feel pretty confident predicting Williams, Middlebury, Amherst and Tufts will earn NCAA Tournament spots; the first three teams are ranked #2, #6 and #15 (respectively) in the Top 25 rankings, and Tufts checks in as the #5 team in the New England Regional Rankings. A NESCAC Championship certainly wouldn’t hurt to add to any of these team’s respective résumés come seeding time, and it’s fair to say all four of the contenders will fancy their chances to snag the coveted trophy. Without further ado, let’s give our final four a proper introduction.

Saturday, November 3rd (Semifinal #1 @ Williamstown, Mass): #1 Williams vs. #4 Tufts

How did they get here:

#1 Williams secured their fifth straight regular season title with a 1-0 win against Middlebury. There was no letdown with these ladies, as they dispatched #8 Colby in the quarterfinals relatively easily by a tune of 3-1. The Ephs outshot the Mules 27-4, as three different players found the net. Georgia Lord ‘21 got things started early in the 9th minute, and Sarah Scire ‘20 doubled Williams’ lead shortly afterwards. Nkem Iregbulem’s ‘20 long range missile all but sealed the deal, ensuring the Ephs would advance to the semifinals.

I’ll admit, I had the Jumbos pegged for a potential upset given how they finished the regular season. Back-to-back losses, including the most recent one to Bowdoin, indicated that maybe this Tufts team could be headed for an early exit. A matchup with Wesleyan proved to be the perfect remedy for a squad who needed to iron out their kinks, and fast. Sunday’s 2-0 win was essentially a carbon copy of their regular season meeting; the Jumbos scored a goal in each half (this time thanks to Liz Reed ‘21), and limited Wesleyan to a mere three shot attempts. That’s the kind of dominating performance a mid-seeded team needs in order to gain confidence heading into a matchup with arguably the best team in the entire country.

Williams X-Factor: F Sydney Jones ‘21

Jones started the season on a tear, scoring six goals in Williams’s first six games; however, she’s gone on a cold streak since then, tallying just three goals in her last twelve matches.

Jones did score the lone goal in Williams’s 1-0 victory in Medford a few weeks prior and will look to break through once again against a defense that just stifled Wesleyan, who finished fourth in the ‘CAC in goals scored.

Tufts X-Factor(s): F Sophie Lloyd ‘21 and F Liz Reed ‘21

Both of these ladies deserve praise for the work they’ve done this season. Tufts’s offense would struggle mightily if it wasn’t for them, as the two have combined to score nearly half of the Jumbo’s conference goals. In this instance, one of them playing well will not be suffice enough to defeat Williams. Lloyd and Reed will both have to create multiple scoring chances in order for Tufts to spring the upset.

Preview and Prediction

2006. That’s the last time the Jumbos defeated the Ephs. Since then, Williams has won every single matchup sans a 0-0 tie in 2010. Throw in a few postseason encounters, and you get thirteen losses in fourteen games. Last season, the Jumbos were oh-so-close to getting the monkey of their backs, but fell in a heartbreaker to Williams in the NESCAC Championship, conceding the game-tying goal in the 81st minute and the winner in the 94th.

Both teams employ a defense-first style, frustrating opposing coaches with suffocating ball pressure; however, the offense, at times, can disappear. This is especially true for Tufts, who scored a mere eleven goals in their ten conference games and had the third-worst shooting percentage during the regular season. One glimmer for hope, however, is that when Tufts does score, it’s a collective effort. Although Lloyd and Reed are usually the main contributors, the Jumbos have generated a second-best 10 assists on conference goals season, and this type of ball movement will be crucial in order to break down the best defense in the NESCAC.

Usually I like revenge spots, but there’s just no way I can go against the Ephs. Talent-wise, they’re head and shoulders above the Jumbos, and William’s impenetrable back line has given up just four goals in conference play. Sure Colby found the net this past weekend, but the Ephs already had that game well in hand. Olivia Barnhill ‘19 is the best goalkeeper in the league, and I’m banking on the senior having yet another superb game. With home-field advantage for the regular season champions, I like Williams to win convincingly. Unfortunately for the Jumbos, the streak lives on.

Prediction: Williams 2-0 Tufts

Saturday, November 3rd (Semifinal #2 @ Williamstown, Mass): #2 Middlebury vs. #3 Amherst

How did they get here:

On Saturday’s lone fixture, 2nd-seeded Middlebury defeated the 7th-seeded Polar Bears 1-0. They say the final score is all that matters, but the stats indicate some concerns for this Panther squad. After Eliza Robertson ‘21 scored the game’s lone goal in the 19th minute, the Polar Bears proceeded to dominate the ball, desperately looking for an equalizer. Eva Shaw ‘20 recorded a career high 10 saves, bailing out the Panther defense time and time again. Bowdoin ended up outshooting the Panthers 19-10; maybe the Panthers were looking ahead, but if they replicate this performance on Saturday, the team will board their bus back to Vermont earlier than previously anticipated.

The Mammoths also endured a tight contest with 6th-seeded Hamilton, holding on for a 1-0 victory. Goal-scoring machine Rubii Tamen ‘19 scored for the fourth consecutive game, and Antonia Tammaro ‘21 made a spectacular save in the second half to preserve the shutout. The Mammoth defense has bounced back nicely since allowing a season-high three goals to Wesleyan, producing back-to-back shutouts. Granted, Trinity and Hamilton don’t even come close to Middlebury in terms of offensive productivity, but it’s surely a positive sign as we trek deeper into postseason play.

Middlebury X-Factor: F Eliza Van Voorhis ‘21

On a team loaded with offensive talent, Van Voorhis might be the best of the bunch. She leads the Panthers in goals and SOG, and Middlebury is undefeated this season when Van Voorhis finds the back of the net. She disappeared in last weekend’s quarterfinal against Bowdoin (0 SOG), and the Panthers will need Van Voorhis to, at the very least, be more involved in the flow of the game in order to move past Amherst. I expect a bounce back performance from the rising star.

Amherst X-Factor: GK Antonia Tammaro ‘21

Tammaro took over the starting keeper role after Amherst’s 3-1 loss to Middlebury, and she hasn’t looked back. Tammaro is just behind Barnhill in both save percentage and goals allowed per game. She had one hiccup in a 3-2 loss to Wesleyan, but has since responded well, making a combined 10 saves in their past two victories. It’s a tall task for any goalkeeper to keep the Panthers from finding the back of the net more than once, but if Tammaro can limit the Panthers to, at worst, a single goal, then she’ll give her offense a very good chance of springing the mini upset.

Preview and Prediction:

When these two met back in September, the score (3-1 Middlebury) did not indicate how close the game really was. The Mammoths actually held a slight shot advantage of 19-18, parlayed with a significant edge in corners (7-2). Moreover, Amherst was in the middle of a goalie conundrum as the former starter, Erica Sanders ‘20, conceded all three goals in 70 minutes of play. Amherst is a tough matchup for the Panthers; Tamen and the rest of the offense certainly have the capability to trade offensive blows with Middlebury. On the flip side, Amherst has proven it can irritate opposing offenses with a solid back line.

I’ve made it a point to make the Middlebury offense a focal point of the article, and for good reason: they’re the only NESCAC team averaging over two goals per game, and have assisted on 18 of their 25 conference goals. It’s a well-oiled machine that, when functioning up to their capability, is nearly impossible to play catch-up with. The Panthers didn’t earn the #2 seed based solely on their offensive skills, however; they sneakily have the second-best defense in the ‘CAC. Ursula Alwang ‘20 is an extremely talented goalkeeper in her own right, and had a spectacular performance against Amherst in their prior matchup, recording eight saves. However, she has not played in the past four games, with Eva Shaw stepping up in her absence.

The Panther offense has been quiet in their past two games, and they’re due for an explosion. Amherst will make some noise early, but Middlebury will tighten up when they need to. Then, that potent offense will take over and propel this team to victory, setting up a date with Williams.

Prediction: Middlebury 3-2 Amherst

We’re not done yet folks!

There’s still a championship game to be played following the completion of the semifinal matches. Thus, we’re giving readers a two-for-one special and providing a brief championship prediction. Hopefully I correctly predicted the two finalists or else this will blow up in my face.

Sunday, November 4th (@ Williamstown, Mass): #1 Williams vs. #2 Middlebury

This is the rematch NESCAC followers want; a titanic battle between the top two heavyweights of the league. A few weeks prior, Williams and Middlebury faced off in the regular season finale to decide who would claim the regular season title. It was Williams who prevailed on their home soil, stymying the Middlebury attack en route to a 1-0 victory. The Panthers outplayed the Ephs, holding an edge in shots (9-4). The lone goal was scored off a beautiful free kick from Aspen Pierson ‘21, bending the ball around the wall and past Shaw.

Having the best defense in the league certainly helps when you’re trying to contain the NESCAC’s best offense. The great Bear Bryant once said “defense wins championships”; I beg to differ for the sake of this article. The Panthers know they’re the better team, and once they skate by Amherst, they’ll be licking their chops at the opportunity to dethrone Williams on their own soil.

Moreover, Williams lost in the NESCAC tournament in 2014, won it all in 2015, lost in 2016, and won it again in 2017. This pattern of results is screaming for me to pick Middlebury, so I can’t just buck the trend now.

Prediction: Middlebury 2-1 Williams

Appleton Bound? Amherst NCAA Baseball Regional Preview

Auburn Regional (New York Region) – Hosted by #9 Cortland

After earning the NESCAC automatic NCAA tournament bid, preventing Tufts from collecting their third straight conference title, the Amherst Mammoths will venture down to Falcon Park in Auburn, New York. Falcon Park is the home of #9 SUNY Cortland and the site for this year’s DIII baseball New York regional. Other notable teams include #10 Salisbury, out of Maryland, and #24 Southern Maine. NCAA regionals are a double-elimination tournament, much like the NESCAC playoffs. The winner of the regional will represent the New York Region at the 2018 DIII World Series in Appleton, Wisconsin.

First Opponent – #24 Southern Maine

Southern Maine finished 3rd in the Little East Conference this season, behind Eastern Connecticut and #3 UMass – Boston. Southern Maine finished 4-1 against NESCAC opponents this season, beating Bates and Colby in mid-week games and splitting games against Bowdoin. The USM Huskies are lead offensively by Devin Warren ‘19, who is hitting .401 with 31 RBI, and Dylan Hapworth ‘20, who has a .338 AVG and 8 home runs. Jake Dexter ‘19, whose father Tom is a baseball and football coach at Colby College, has been doing absolutely everything for the Huskies this season. At the plate he is hitting .387 with 28 RBI and on the mound he is USM’s #1 arm out of the ‘pen, maintaining a 1.67 ERA and 11.13 K/9. Amherst will most likely face Gage Feeney ‘20 who is 6-1 on the season with a 3.18 ERA. Southern Maine is no stranger to good competition as they have the 21st best strength of schedule in the nation, compared to Amherst’s 164th, per herosports.com.

Amherst will likely send out Sam Schneider ‘18 to face the Huskies as he has been their ace all year long. Schneider has started to stand out down the stretch in this playoff run, throwing 7 ⅔ strong innings against Bates in game 1 of the NESCAC playoffs and will have had 6 days of rest between that appearance and their contest versus USM. Amherst’s and USM’s staffs match up very evenly on paper. Amherst has a team ERA of 3.58 while USM’s team ERA is 3.82. They both have solid starters that should keep them in the game for 6+ innings and bullpens who have consistently kept the leads that their starters have given them this season. Offensively, Southern Maine has the clear advantage over Amherst. While both clubs have team averages in the low .300s, USM has been getting it done in style. The Huskies have belted 29 home runs as a team this season, compared to Amherst’s 11. The Mammoths will need to keep USM inside the ballpark in order for them to move past game 1 of the regional unscathed.

Game 2

If Amherst manages to take down USM, they will face the winner of #10 Salisbury vs. St. Joseph’s (L.I.). If Amherst loses to USM, they will face the loser of #10 Salisbury vs. St. Joseph’s (L.I.).

Salisbury enters the tournament after receiving an automatic bid as champions of the Capital Athletic Conference. The Salisbury Seagulls are on a 8-game winning streak, which is tied for the 5th longest active winning streak in D3 baseball and are the clear favorite to win their opening round game. They enter the tournament white-hot after sweeping through their conference tournament, scoring 49 runs and giving up just 7 in 5 games. Jack Barry ‘19 has been an offensive juggernaut for the Seagulls, boasting a .423 AVG and dropping a team-leading 8 bombs thus far. Salisbury’s offense is good, but their pitching is what makes them great. The Capital Athletic Conference is a hitter’s conference, nearly every team has averages above .300 and ERAs above 5.00. Salisbury has a conference-best 3.38 ERA, which is really what separates them from the competition. Their staff is spearheaded by Connor Reeves ‘18, who has the most wins in the nation at 13. Reeves also is 9th nationally in ERA at 1.22, 6th in strikeouts with 103 and 1st in innings pitched with 110 ⅔ (the NESCAC leader in IP has 64.1 for reference). If having one clear All-American wasn’t enough for Salisbury, how about two? Austin Heenan ‘18, a DI transfer from Virginia Military Institute, is 10-3 on the season, tied for 2nd most wins in the nation, with a 2.33 ERA. Heenan has racked up 110 strikeouts this season, which is also 2nd best in the nation. If Amherst were to face Salisbury in game 2, which would likely only occur given the Mammoths take game 1, they would have to face Heenan. While Amherst has seen their fair share of quality arms this year, All-American caliber players such as Reeves and Heenan are hard to come by, and even harder to beat.

Most likely, if Amherst loses game 1 they will face St. Joseph’s (L.I.). The Golden Eagles earned their NCAA tournament berth through capturing the Skyline Conference playoff title. Prior to their conference final against Merchant Marine, St. Joseph’s was riding an impressive 11-game win streak. The St. Joe’s lineup is headlined by Paul Britt ‘19, who transferred from host SUNY Cortland after his freshman year. Britt is hitting .406 and leads the team in homeruns (7) and RBI (35). The Golden Eagles have an extremely productive core in their lineup, but are not great top-to-bottom as many teams who fare well nationally are. On the mound, St. Joe’s has had 9 different guys start games for them and are usually quick to pull the trigger and head to the bullpen. Nick Clemente ‘18 has logged the most innings on the staff this year with 54 ⅔, a miniscule number compared to Salisbury’s #1 and #2. The Golden Eagles would be a very even matchup for Amherst, should they square off. Both teams have guys who are excellent individually, but the team as a whole doesn’t stick out in the very talented group in this regional.

Beyond Game 2

If the Mammoths are lucky enough to make it past 2 games, as Tufts was unable to do last year, they could face any combination of the remaining teams in the regional. #9 SUNY Cortland won their first national championship back in 2015 and has competed in 26 straight NCAA tournaments. Baldwin Wallace won the Ohio Athletic Conference tournament and has now made the NCAA tournament in 3 of their last 5 seasons. Swarthmore upset a very talented Johns Hopkins team to win their conference and currently hold a school-best 33 wins on the year. Finally, Westfield State captured the Massachusetts Small College Athletic Conference title to make their first NCAA tournament since 2009.

Overall, the majority of the teams at this regional simply outclass Amherst. The Mammoths could certainly compete against teams like Westfield State, Swarthmore, St Joseph’s and maybe even Baldwin Wallace. When it comes to teams such as Southern Maine, Salisbury and Cortland; Amherst would need to pull off a small miracle to walk away with a victory.

But since they are our only NESCAC team left, we believe in the Mammoths. Did anybody see Davidson College’s remarkable playoff run last year? Crazier things have happened, so keep reading to see how these academic weapons can keep the dream alive:

Amherst’s Strengths, Weaknesses and X-Factor

Strengths:

The boys are hot: Amherst is on a 5-game winning streak that includes 2 crucial wins against Midd to take them to the NESCAC playoffs and then 2 more impressive wins over two-time reigning champs Tufts.
Senior Leadership: The core of the Amherst lineup is Max Steinhorn ‘18, Ariel Kenney ‘18 and Harry Roberson ‘18. These boys have been grinding together for 4 years to reach this point and will not go out without a bang. They set the bar high for their teammates and challenge them to perform to their full potential. Senior leadership is an invaluable asset for any team and Amherst is full of it.
Sam Schneider is ready to go this weekend after back-to-back gems.
Their Bullpen: Similarly, Stephen Burke ‘21 has started his career off hot. In his 13 appearances he is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA. Zach Brown has also been a major player for Amherst, putting up a 1.76 ERA and 11.74 K/9 in his 9 appearances, despite lots of unearned runs and a lack of control. He can dominate if he locates his curveball, because his heat probably won’t phase these hitters as much as it did earlier this year. Mike Dow has also had a phenomenal statistical season with 7 saves, but has had some wild pitches and hit batters in his last few outings. If he keeps it together emotionally, Amherst will be good to go as his stuff is effective and he generally locates well. When it is time to hand the ball over to the ‘pen, Amherst has some great resources at their disposal which could help them further themselves in the NCAA tournament.

Weaknesses:

Quality of Competition: While it is a great feat in-and-of itself to capture the NESCAC title, the competition Amherst has faced has not prepared them for the level of talent they are about to go up against. No team that Amherst has faced this year is in the top-25, let alone any team that they have beaten. In a regional that has 3 top-25 teams, including 2 in the top-10, Amherst is facing competition unlike any they have seen this year.
Power: Amherst’s 11 home runs ranks last among all the teams at the regional. Alex Marcum ‘18 (Baldwin Wallace), Dudley Taw ‘20 (Baldwin Wallace) and Anthony Crowley ‘19 (Westfield St.) all have more home runs individually than Amherst does as a team. In high-stakes playoff environments such as the NCAA Regionals home runs can be a huge momentum shifter and Amherst simply doesn’t have to pop to produce many of them. Especially against high-quality arms, which they will be facing plenty of, it will be tough to string together hits, so the long ball becomes a much needed tool that Amherst doesn’t have access to.
Experience: Only the Seniors on this Amherst team have had the taste of NCAA playoffs. Amherst made the NCAA Regionals with an at-large bid back in 2015 after losing the NESCAC Championship to Wesleyan. That regional was also hosted by Cortland and the Mammoths went 1-2 in regional play, including a loss to eventual national champion Cortland. Many of the other teams in this regional consistently make the tournament or play in higher quality conferences, no offense NESCAC, that regularly get more than one team into NCAA Regionals. The lack of postseason experience could serve to hurt Amherst as they will be going in a huge underdog compared to many of the programs they will be facing.

X-Factor

Ariel Kenney ‘18:
Ariel Kenney ’18

Kenney started off the season hot and is my pick for West Player of the Year, but as of late he has cooled down significantly. In his last 8 games he is 5 for 29 (.172 AVG) and has had no extra base hits. Kenney has been a key part of the Mammoth lineup all season and if they wanted to outperform their expectations for this regional he’s going to have to break out of this slump and play like he was at the beginning of the season. Now is as tough a time as ever to break out of a slump, as he will be facing the best pitching he has seen all year and possibly in his career, but if he can’t go back to his POY ways, it is more than likely that Amherst will not make it too far in the regional.

Prediction

I believe that Amherst will drop their first game against Southern Maine and the rally to beat St. Joseph’s (L.I.) in their second game. Southern Maine’s pitching is not dominant, so the Mammoths certainly have a chance, however. Amherst’s staff is not deep enough to carry them for more than 2 or 3 games in such a short time-span so it is more than likely that whoever the Mammoths face in game 3, if they are lucky enough to make it that far, will get the better of them. That being said, as representatives of the NESCAC I will be rooting for Amherst to exceed my expectations and help to put NESCAC baseball back on the map. Good luck Mammoths.

Note: For the full regional schedule, please go online and check out Amherst Baseball’s page.

Ring Chasing: NESCAC Baseball Playoff Preview

Finally, we’re in the NESCAC playoffs. It’s the usual suspects from the west: Amherst and Wesleyan. Coming out of the east, we have the same teams as the 2017 season. Both Bates and Tufts put up impressive second half records to allow them to make the playoffs. Amherst similarly barely made the tournament, while Wesleyan has limped its way in. All teams have the ability to win the conference—making it a fight to the bitter end. Let’s look at the game one matchups:

Game 1, Wesleyan vs Tufts (Hartford, CT):

This game is a rematch of the 2014 NESCAC final. Tufts comes into the tournament smoking hot. Tufts is one of the best hitting NESCAC teams in the past few years. The ‘Bos are either first or second in all major hitting statistical categories. They lead in HBP (like they do every year) and on base percentage, which shows all nine guys are willing to get on any way possible. They open it up by leading the league in homers and hits. Malcolm Nachmanoff is the run away candidate in the player of the year race with a .432 avg and seven big flies, leading the ‘Bos at the plate. Not far behind him is 10th-year senior Tommy O’Hara, who has been a staple in the Jumbos lineup for quite some time. R.J. Hall will likely be the game one starter. He has logged the most innings, and couples that with a 2.81 ERA. Right behind Hall are Brent Greeley (2.31 ERA) and Spencer Langdon who leads the ‘Bos starters with a 1.66 ERA. Tufts has no glaring weaknesses with a potent lineup, and dominant staff. They might be in trouble if a starter gets knocked out early though as no reliever has below a 4.00 ERA. Tufts isn’t invincible. If teams can get to Tufts’ bullpen, they have a serious chance of winning.

Ryan Earle needs to be a power threat like that of Tufts’ three headed monster in Hartford.

Wesleyan crawls into the playoffs with numerous injuries on the year. The Cards have had their fair share of big wins such as sweeps against Midd and Williams, but disappointments as well. Losing a series against an evenly matched Amherst squad, and losing two games to one against an underachieving Hamilton team are low points. For Wesleyan’s standards, I’m sure that these results are disappointments, but they showed important aspects of the team. Southpaw Kelvin Sosa is on track to win rookie of the year; McCaffrey has the best K/9 in the league. There are certain x-factors in the lineup like Danny Rose who is one of the top hitters in the conference. His short swing coupled with good bat speed allows him to launch baseballs to the right center gap. The biggest x-factor for Wes, I believe, is Tanner Fulkerson. The Colorado native was named NESCAC player of the week with an outstanding performance against Trinity last weekend. Andrew Kauf and Jake Alonzo have provided great gloves and bats for the infield as well. If I were writing a stock report, Wesleyan sophomores would definitely be stock up. People forget that infielder Jonny Corning is out for the year with a shoulder injury (albeit in his non-throwing arm). Fortunately, this talented class has stepped up all season. If all the sophomores perform, Wesleyan’s lineup can almost match Tufts.

Pat Clare and Alec Olmstead are going to have huge roles as the weekend rolls on for Wes.

The bats make the matchup exciting, but expect a 5-4 or 6-3 game. If Sosa goes, and messes up Tufts’ rhythm (shimmy-shimmy), I think the Cards will take it.

Prediction: Wesleyan 5-4

Game 2: Bates vs Amherst (Hartford, CT):

Amherst got into the playoffs by the skin of its teeth. Having to beat a hot Midd team twice in a row on the road is no easy task, but Amherst accomplished it. Amherst is a good team, but they shot themselves in the foot a bit with a poor performance against Hamilton. Like I always say, Amherst will make the plays down the stretch in close games. A guy like Harry Roberson has been through it all at Amherst. He may not carry himself like a physically imposing player, however, his role in Amherst’s record books doesn’t lie. Roberson has picked it up after a slow start to the season. After hitting in the mid-.200’s to begin the year, he has clawed his way up to a .303 average. Although Davis Brown had been their go-to game one starter, Andrew Ferrero has become their top guy, and with a 2.72 ERA, he is depended on to get the outs in critical scenarios. Ariel Kenney and Max Steinhorn are also anchors in the lineup with averages in the high .300’s, pacing the team that leads the league average and hits. Amherst will put up a good fight one through nine and there’s no easy out in that lineup.

Connor Russell needs to be sharp to give Bates a chance.

Let’s stop criticizing Bates. Yes, the team average isn’t good. It’s pretty bad. At .244, the Bobcats are ranked eighth in the league in team average. Even if they can’t hit on paper, they’re good enough to find themselves in the playoffs for the second consecutive year. They’re making the plays when they need to. Nolan Collins has been throwing the ball really well recently and dominated Tufts two weeks ago to clinch their spot in the postseason. The righty leads the starters with a 2.98 ERA while the other starters are merely average. With ERA’s in the 4’s and 5’s for the rest of the staff, Collins will be relied upon to carry the staff the rest of the way. Another key factor to Bates’ recent success is the coaching of Jon Martin. Coming from Vassar to Bates for 2017 season, Martin has brought Bates to the playoffs for two consecutive years. The talent of Bates is average for the NESCAC, but Martin has made the Bobcats a perennial contender. They started off the season slowly, but Martin guided them to a berth, while simultaneously shocking Trinity. Offensively, Justin White has the best average on the team (.381) with very few at bats and Zach Avila has had some big hits, but there aren’t a ton of threats in this lineup. In order to have a shot, the bats are going to need to come alive this weekend.

The game will be low scoring for sure, but I can’t bet against Amherst here.

Prediction: Amherst 2-0

What You Gotta Know: Amherst vs. Middlebury Series Breakdown

While everybody is looking towards the playoffs, there is still one series and one playoff spot on the line. Middlebury and Amherst are playing for their playoff lives with everything on the line this weekend. Read more to find out what you need to know before Saturday’s doubleheader:

Location: Forbes Field – Middlebury, VT

While Middlebury has only played 5 of their 28 games at home this season, they’ve certainly had success when playing on their own diamond. On the season Midd sits at 4-1 in all home contests, thanks to their current 4 game win streak at home. On the other side of the equation, Amherst has only had 7 away games this year and they are 4-3 in those contests, most notably beating Wesleyan 2 games out of 3 on the road. Overall I’d give the Panthers a slight advantage being on their home turf, but Amherst has clearly shown that they can get it done on the road, so home field advantage will not be enough to take them down.

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Colby Morris ‘19 (Middlebury) 4-4, 1.92 ERA vs Andrew Ferrero ‘19 (Amherst) 3-1, 2.19 ERA

Colby Morris ’19

Andrew Ferrero ’19

Game 2: Robert Erickson ‘18 (Middlebury) 3-2, 3.19 ERA vs Sam Schneider ‘18 (Amherst) 3-2, 3.22 ERA

Rob Erickson ’18

Sam Schneider ’18

Game 3: George Goldstein ‘21 (Middlebury) 2-0, 1.02 ERA vs Davis Brown ‘19 (Amherst) 5-2, 3.80 ERA

George Goldstein ’21

Davis Brown ’19

Game 1 of this series features two of the top pitchers in the conference this year in Morris and Ferrero. Both are Juniors, Bay Area natives (despite the fact that Morris lists himself as from Del Mar, which is fake news) (Editor’s Note: It is not fake news) and are enjoying the best years of their careers thus far. Game 1 should be a tight, low-scoring contest and will come down to which one of these aces can go the distance for their team. I would give Morris the advantage over Ferrero because he has been able to go CG in 2 of his 3 NESCAC games so far and has maintained a stellar 1.23 ERA in conference this year. Before Amherst’s loss against Hamilton I would have said that the game two matchup should be very close as well. But after giving up 6 earned in 3+ innings Davis Brown will likely have his start pushed to Sunday. That leaves the task up to Sam Schneider ’18 who will be making his last NESCAC start. Schneider got bounced after one inning against Hamilton and put up quality starts in his other two outings and is by no means a lock for success. On the other hand, Erickson has been able to hold all NESCAC West opponents to 3 runs or less per start so far this year. If both teams maintain their same rotation as last week then game 2 should be lopsidedly in favor of Middlebury. Game 3 looks to be an absolute wildcard as it pits Freshman George Goldstein, who only has one career start, against either Brown or an Amherst bullpen arm. Goldstein’s only career start came last week against Hamilton where he was able to go 5 strong, scoreless innings to get the final win of the series sweep for the Panthers. Despite Goldstein’s stellar numbers, because he didn’t go more than five innings in his start, he leaves a lot up to the Middlebury bullpen. This

Key Players:

Middlebury

Hayden Smith ‘20: .382/.452/.461, 21 RBI, 6 XBH

Justin Han ‘20: .367/.528/.456, 18 RBI, 27 BB, 20SB

Brooks Carroll ‘20: .311/.376/.427, 12 RBI, 9 XBH, 15SB

Amherst

Ariel Kenney ‘18: .420/.496/.670, 21 RBI, 4 HR, 11 BB

Max Steinhorn ‘18: .391/.458/.461, 16 RBI, 6 XBH, 14 SB

Harry Roberson ‘18: .316/.421/.429, 11 2B, 24 RBI, 16 BB

Numbers-wise, Amherst’s offense is clearly superior to Midd’s. Lead by a trio of Seniors, Amherst currently has the best team batting average in the conference at .304 while Midd sits in 6th at .267. One thing that both of these teams do especially well is run the bases. Midd leads the conference by a significant margin with their 72 bags swiped while Amherst is 3rd with their 53 stolen bases. Interestingly, when it comes to away games for the Mammoths, their team average is less than 10 points lower than it is for home games, showing that they are not intimidated on the road. Luckily for Middlebury, their team average goes up nearly 80 points when they are on their home field, which may provide some of the offense that Midd has seemed to be lacking all season. Overall, I think that Amherst has a clear offensive advantage over Middlebury and Midd will need to use the leverage of their home field advantage, as well as their current 9 game win streak, in their favor in order to be able to match the Mammoth’s outstanding plate presence.

Midd has something going right now after two straight sweeps. Photo courtesy of David Goldstein.

Series History (Since 2007)

Overall:

Amherst: 25-9

Middlebury 9-25

Home:

Amherst: 11-4

Middlebury: 5-10

Away:

Amherst: 10-5

Middlebury 4-11

Neutral:

Amherst: 4-0

Middlebury 0-4

It’s fairly clear to see that over the past decade or so Amherst has dominated their matchup against Midd. Both the home and away numbers are very similar for both teams, showing that home field advantage has not played all too much of a role in their past meetings. Although last year Midd was able to take 2 of 3 games from the Mammoths in Massachusetts and Middlebury made a much further playoff run than Amherst, so perhaps we are seeing a cultural shift happening in Vermont that is trending in the right direction. Despite the fact that history would choose Amherst over Midd by a long shot, with the recent momentum Midd has gained as well as their success last season against Amherst, this series will certainly be much tighter than it has been in years past.

What’s on the Line (Playoff Scenarios)

Amherst: After a devastating loss to Hamilton on Thursday, the Mammoths now need to get a series win on the road in order to secure their playoff spot. Anything less than 2 wins would have Amherst go from the #1 seed to a team that will miss the playoffs entirely. If the Mammoths are able to take 2 games from Midd they will salvage their playoff spot and retain their status as the #1 seed.

Middlebury: Hamilton’s win over Amherst was a godsend for the Panthers as Midd’s comeback from last in the division is nearly complete. All Middlebury needs now is a series win at home to come all the way back from their rocky start. 2 wins or more will see Middlebury make the playoffs as the #2 seed, something that seemed unfathomable just weeks ago.